HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Since 2025, four H-share IPOs of the A-shares have been trading below their listing price.  They are either of slow growth or a light HA discount.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/foshan-haitian-flavouring-food-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44279:1" rel="noopener">Foshan Haitian (3288 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kin-yat-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13688:1" rel="noopener">Fibocom Wireless (638 HK)</a> are burdened by slow earnings, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seres-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45945:1" rel="noopener">Seres Group (9927 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/car-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:942:1" rel="noopener">Joyson Electronics (699 HK)</a> are weighted down by light discount. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-longcheer-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36881:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Longcheer Technology (603341 CH</a><a target="_blank" rel="noopener"> )</a>'s H-share IPO appears attractive, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/muyuan-foods" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45241:1" rel="noopener">Muyuan Foods (MUYUAN HK)</a> may need a steeper discount given its weaker earnings.</li>
</ul>


Since 2025, four H-share IPOs of the A-shares have been trading below their listing price.  They are either of slow growth or a light HA discount.

Foshan Haitian (3288 HK) and Fibocom Wireless (638 HK) are burdened by slow earnings, while Seres Group (9927 HK) and Joyson Electronics (699 HK) are weighted down by light discount. 

Shanghai Longcheer Technology (603341 CH )'s H-share IPO appears attractive, while Muyuan Foods (MUYUAN HK) may need a steeper discount given its weaker earnings.


HK Strategy: What to Avoid in the H-Share IPO of A-Shares?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious</li>
<li>While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).</li>
</ul>


Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious
While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).


Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.</li>
<li>Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.
Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."


Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

SHEIN Global Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shein-global-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:55372:1" rel="noopener">SHEIN Global Holdings (625 HK)</a> (SHEIN), a global online fashion and lifestyle company, raised around US$1.7bn in its Hong Kong listing.</li>
<li>Shein is a global online fashion and lifestyle company serving approximately 273m active customers in approximately 160 markets in 2025.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance and provided our thoughts on valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



SHEIN Global Holdings (625 HK) (SHEIN), a global online fashion and lifestyle company, raised around US$1.7bn in its Hong Kong listing.
Shein is a global online fashion and lifestyle company serving approximately 273m active customers in approximately 160 markets in 2025.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and provided our thoughts on valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.


Aequitas: Shein Global Holdings IPO Trading - No Demand.. Existing Holders Took Half the Deal

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shein-global-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:55372:1" rel="noopener">SHEIN Global Holdings (625 HK)</a>, a global online fashion and lifestyle company, aims to raise up to US$1.8bn in its Hong Kong listing.</li>
<li>Shein is a global online fashion and lifestyle company serving approximately 273m active customers in approximately 160 markets in 2025.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance and provided our thoughts on valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.</li>
</ul>



SHEIN Global Holdings (625 HK), a global online fashion and lifestyle company, aims to raise up to US$1.8bn in its Hong Kong listing.
Shein is a global online fashion and lifestyle company serving approximately 273m active customers in approximately 160 markets in 2025.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and provided our thoughts on valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.


Aequitas: Shein Global Holdings IPO - Thoughts on Valuation- Just like Its Wares, It Is Cheap But...

China

Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.,Ltd. manufactures and distributes drinks. The Company produces functional drinks, citrus lemon tea, citrus drinks, packaged drinking water, and other products. Eastroc Beverage (Group) markets its products throughout China.

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Eastroc Beverage Group (605499 CH)

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities. Looking for the $ACWI rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

Aequitas: Shein Global Holdings IPO Trading - No Demand.. Existing Holders Took Half the Deal

SHEIN Global Holdings (625 HK) (SHEIN), a global online fashion and lifestyle company, raised around US$1.7bn in its Hong Kong listing. In this...

Sumeet Singh

Aequitas: Shein Global Holdings IPO - Thoughts on Valuation- Just like Its Wares, It Is Cheap But...

SHEIN Global Holdings (625 HK), a global online fashion and lifestyle company, aims to raise up to US$1.8bn in its Hong Kong listing. In this note,...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK Strategy: What to Avoid in the H-Share IPO of A-Shares?

​Four H-share IPOs of A-shares since 2025 are trading below the listing price due to slow growth or a light discount. Meanwhile, Shanghai Longcheer...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities. Looking for the $ACWI rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

Aequitas: Shein Global Holdings IPO Trading - No Demand.. Existing Holders Took Half the Deal

SHEIN Global Holdings (625 HK) (SHEIN), a global online fashion and lifestyle company, raised around US$1.7bn in its Hong Kong listing. In this...

Sumeet Singh

Aequitas: Shein Global Holdings IPO - Thoughts on Valuation- Just like Its Wares, It Is Cheap But...

SHEIN Global Holdings (625 HK), a global online fashion and lifestyle company, aims to raise up to US$1.8bn in its Hong Kong listing. In this note,...

Sumeet Singh

Four H-share IPOs of A-shares since 2025 are trading below the listing price due to slow growth or a light discount. Meanwhile, Shanghai Longcheer...