Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see up to five M&amp;A-related intra-review changes for the F250 index in the run up to the June 2025 review. Many could be <em>very</em> high impact.</li>
<li>Separately, there could be one regular index change for the F250 index in June 2025. At present, we do not see any changes for the F100 index.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
We see up to five M&amp;A-related intra-review changes for the F250 index in the run up to the June 2025 review. Many could be very high impact.
Separately, there could be one regular index change for the F250 index in June 2025. At present, we do not see any changes for the F100 index.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25: Multiple High-Impact Intra-Review Index Additions Likely

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Latest RDC fare data deep dive suggests scope for negative surprises at easyJet and Wizz Air - we publish a detailed analysis across booking windows.</li>
<li>​easyJet fare data suggest potential for late-market disappointment, albeit winter prospects more encouraging.</li>
<li>Wizz Air fare data cast doubt on hopes for fare growth.</li>
</ul>


Latest RDC fare data deep dive suggests scope for negative surprises at easyJet and Wizz Air - we publish a detailed analysis across booking windows.
​easyJet fare data suggest potential for late-market disappointment, albeit winter prospects more encouraging.
Wizz Air fare data cast doubt on hopes for fare growth.


European Airlines – Fare Data Suggests Risk to EasyJet/Wizz Peak Summer but Winter More Encouraging

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the September 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>There could be up to three M&amp;A-related intra-review changes in the next few weeks.</li>
<li>Apart from that, there could be two changes for the F100 index and two other changes for the F250 index during the September 2024 review.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the September 2024 index rebal event.
There could be up to three M&amp;A-related intra-review changes in the next few weeks.
Apart from that, there could be two changes for the F100 index and two other changes for the F250 index during the September 2024 review.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Sep 24: High-Impact F250 Potential ADDs Could Outperform the Index

<ul>
<li>Ryanair issued a stark warning on summer pricing today with 1Q25 results and we cut our FY25 net income 31% accordingly.</li>
<li>Our forecasts represent a re-set of unitary economics to pre-pandemic levels and it is difficult to plot improvement unless consolidation benefits or winter surgery help FY26.</li>
<li>Ryanair's cost advantage has widened markedly against peers, justifying a strategy of continued market share focus as competitors face greater challenges.</li>
</ul>


Ryanair issued a stark warning on summer pricing today with 1Q25 results and we cut our FY25 net income 31% accordingly.
Our forecasts represent a re-set of unitary economics to pre-pandemic levels and it is difficult to plot improvement unless consolidation benefits or winter surgery help FY26.
Ryanair's cost advantage has widened markedly against peers, justifying a strategy of continued market share focus as competitors face greater challenges.


Ryanair – FY25 Weakness Suggests a “normalization” and Prompts Structural Industry Questions

<ul>
<li>Latest fare data suggests an incrementally more concerning trend for Ryanair pricing from June.</li>
<li>Concerns over pricing continue to increase in Europe, following Lufthansa's profit warning last week.</li>
<li>We cut our FY25 net income by 9% to €2,289m albeit remain above consensus of €2,170m.</li>
</ul>


Latest fare data suggests an incrementally more concerning trend for Ryanair pricing from June.
Concerns over pricing continue to increase in Europe, following Lufthansa's profit warning last week.
We cut our FY25 net income by 9% to €2,289m albeit remain above consensus of €2,170m.


Ryanair - Pricing Appears to Be Softening; Re-Setting Profitability Expectations

United Kingdom

easyJet is a British multinational low-cost airline and package holiday group that operates domestic and international scheduled services across numerous routes in over 34 countries. The company primarily focuses on providing air travel services with an emphasis on low fares, operational efficiency, and a point-to-point model. Headquartered at London Luton Airport in the UK, easyJet was founded in 1995.

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easyJet (EZJ LN)

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25: Multiple High-Impact Intra-Review Index Additions Likely

Most of the intra-review replacement candidates have well in excess of 10x ADV to buy if they get added to the F250 index. Some of these names...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

European Airlines – Fare Data Suggests Risk to EasyJet/Wizz Peak Summer but Winter More Encouraging

Deep dive on peak summer/early winter fare data pinpoints potential negative surprises to expectations at easyJet and Wizz Air

Neil Glynn

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Sep 24: High-Impact F250 Potential ADDs Could Outperform the Index

The top-ranked F250 potential ADDs would have a large number of days to buy if they got added to F250. There are multiple opportunities for both...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Ryanair – FY25 Weakness Suggests a “normalization” and Prompts Structural Industry Questions

We publish detailed analysis on Ryanair's pessimistic outlook, highlighting that FY25's performance simply reflects a normalization, and...

Neil Glynn

Ryanair - Pricing Appears to Be Softening; Re-Setting Profitability Expectations

Reflection of latest fare data in our Ryanair forecasts, with market pricing apparently softening further from June. We cut FY25 net income by 9%...

Neil Glynn

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Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25: Multiple High-Impact Intra-Review Index Additions Likely

Most of the intra-review replacement candidates have well in excess of 10x ADV to buy if they get added to the F250 index. Some of these names...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

European Airlines – Fare Data Suggests Risk to EasyJet/Wizz Peak Summer but Winter More Encouraging

Deep dive on peak summer/early winter fare data pinpoints potential negative surprises to expectations at easyJet and Wizz Air

Neil Glynn

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Sep 24: High-Impact F250 Potential ADDs Could Outperform the Index

The top-ranked F250 potential ADDs would have a large number of days to buy if they got added to F250. There are multiple opportunities for both...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Ryanair – FY25 Weakness Suggests a “normalization” and Prompts Structural Industry Questions

We publish detailed analysis on Ryanair's pessimistic outlook, highlighting that FY25's performance simply reflects a normalization, and...

Neil Glynn

Ryanair - Pricing Appears to Be Softening; Re-Setting Profitability Expectations

Reflection of latest fare data in our Ryanair forecasts, with market pricing apparently softening further from June. We cut FY25 net income by 9%...

Neil Glynn

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Sep 24: High-Impact F250 Potential ADDs Could Outperform the Index