European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Apollo has announced a recommended 715p/share Rule 2.7 offer. Castlelake has withdrawn. Regulatory approvals and completion timing now determine the remaining spread.</li>
<li>The Haji-Ioannou family's decision to roll its 15.3% stake validates our earlier view that Apollo's voting rollover and brand commitments were central to securing founder support.</li>
<li>We maintain our 715p target price. At 670p, the shares offer a 6.7% gross spread and an estimated 10.6% annualised return to end-Q1 2027.</li>
</ul>


Apollo has announced a recommended 715p/share Rule 2.7 offer. Castlelake has withdrawn. Regulatory approvals and completion timing now determine the remaining spread.
The Haji-Ioannou family's decision to roll its 15.3% stake validates our earlier view that Apollo's voting rollover and brand commitments were central to securing founder support.
We maintain our 715p target price. At 670p, the shares offer a 6.7% gross spread and an estimated 10.6% annualised return to end-Q1 2027.


<ul>
<li>Apollo's 715p proposal wins Board support. Beyond the higher price, voting stub equity, brand commitments and stronger regulatory undertakings appear to have shifted the Board's position.</li>
<li>Apollo's proposal appears designed to appeal to the Haji-Ioannou family while leveraging its extensive airline ownership experience, making it a stronger strategic proposition than Castlelake's competing offer.</li>
<li>We raise our target price to 715p/share. Castlelake remains live until 3 August, but matching Apollo's price alone may not be sufficient to regain Board support.</li>
</ul>


Apollo's 715p proposal wins Board support. Beyond the higher price, voting stub equity, brand commitments and stronger regulatory undertakings appear to have shifted the Board's position.
Apollo's proposal appears designed to appeal to the Haji-Ioannou family while leveraging its extensive airline ownership experience, making it a stronger strategic proposition than Castlelake's competing offer.
We raise our target price to 715p/share. Castlelake remains live until 3 August, but matching Apollo's price alone may not be sufficient to regain Board support.


Apollo/EasyJet: A Higher Bid, a Stronger Proposal

<ul>
<li>The RNS confirms agreement in principle on the key financial terms of a recommended 690p/share cash offer and extends Castlelake's Rule 2.6 deadline to 3 August 2026.</li>
<li>The proposal remains subject to due diligence, definitive documentation and agreement of the partial unlisted share alternative. The 690p consideration is explicitly stated on a cum-dividend basis.</li>
<li>EasyJet shares have risen to 613.8p, narrowing the spread to 12.4%. We maintain our 690p target price and continue to view execution, rather than valuation, as the principal remaining risk.</li>
</ul>


The RNS confirms agreement in principle on the key financial terms of a recommended 690p/share cash offer and extends Castlelake's Rule 2.6 deadline to 3 August 2026.
The proposal remains subject to due diligence, definitive documentation and agreement of the partial unlisted share alternative. The 690p consideration is explicitly stated on a cum-dividend basis.
EasyJet shares have risen to 613.8p, narrowing the spread to 12.4%. We maintain our 690p target price and continue to view execution, rather than valuation, as the principal remaining risk.


Castlelake/EasyJet: RNS Confirms New 3 August Deadline

<ul>
<li>690p appears to have bridged the valuation gap. The Board is now minded to recommend a firm offer, leaving execution and regulatory approvals as the key remaining hurdles.</li>
<li>Our previous thesis has largely played out. We argued valuation, rather than ownership, would determine the outcome and increased our target price to 675p with a probability-weighted value of 677p/share.</li>
<li>We raise our TP to 690p/share. The shares should move materially higher on Monday, although we expect a merger-arbitrage spread to persist until a firm Rule 2.7 offer is announced.</li>
</ul>


690p appears to have bridged the valuation gap. The Board is now minded to recommend a firm offer, leaving execution and regulatory approvals as the key remaining hurdles.
Our previous thesis has largely played out. We argued valuation, rather than ownership, would determine the outcome and increased our target price to 675p with a probability-weighted value of 677p/share.
We raise our TP to 690p/share. The shares should move materially higher on Monday, although we expect a merger-arbitrage spread to persist until a firm Rule 2.7 offer is announced.


Castlelake/EasyJet: Valuation Bridged, Execution Remains

<ul>
<li>Castlelake raised its proposal to 650p/share and secured limited due diligence, while easyJet rejected the offer and obtained a PUSU extension to 5 July to continue discussions.</li>
<li>At 650p, easyJet would be acquired at 3.6x NTM EBITDA, below the 4.1x sector median and roughly half Ryanair's 7.2x multiple, supporting the Board's position.</li>
<li>I raise my target price to 675p/share. The probability-weighted value is 677p, as ownership concerns have eased and valuation now appears the principal remaining issue. </li>
</ul>


Castlelake raised its proposal to 650p/share and secured limited due diligence, while easyJet rejected the offer and obtained a PUSU extension to 5 July to continue discussions.
At 650p, easyJet would be acquired at 3.6x NTM EBITDA, below the 4.1x sector median and roughly half Ryanair's 7.2x multiple, supporting the Board's position.
I raise my target price to 675p/share. The probability-weighted value is 677p, as ownership concerns have eased and valuation now appears the principal remaining issue. 


Castlelake/EasyJet: Final Approach at 650p?

United Kingdom

easyJet is a British multinational low-cost airline and package holiday group that operates domestic and international scheduled services across numerous routes in over 34 countries. The company primarily focuses on providing air travel services with an emphasis on low fares, operational efficiency, and a point-to-point model. Headquartered at London Luton Airport in the UK, easyJet was founded in 1995.

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easyJet (EZJ LN)

EasyJet: Apollo Goes Firm, Stelios Rolls

Apollo has now gone firm and Castlelake has stepped aside. We examine what has changed since the possible offer, what remains outstanding and how...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Apollo/EasyJet: A Higher Bid, a Stronger Proposal

Apollo's 715p proposal does more than top Castlelake on price. We examine why the Board switched so quickly and whether the process is really over.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Castlelake/EasyJet: RNS Confirms New 3 August Deadline

The latest RNS answers several questions left open by Sunday's announcement. We review what has changed, what remains outstanding and why the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Castlelake/EasyJet: Valuation Bridged, Execution Remains

Castlelake's revised proposal materially changes the takeover dynamics. We reassess valuation, deal probability and what the Board's latest stance...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Castlelake/EasyJet: Final Approach at 650p?

easyJet rejected Castlelake's fourth proposal at 650p and granted limited diligence. I reassess valuation, downside support and the implications...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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