Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe  developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership position relative to EM (MSCI EM). In this report we highlight actionable set ups within Japan, Switzerland and Australia. Within Japanese Sectors, we focus on opportunities within Technology, Financials, Health Care, and Staples. We also highlight attractive setups within European/UK Sectors, including Health Care, Industrials, Staples and Utilities.

Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe  developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership position relative to EM (MSCI EM). In this report we highlight actionable set ups within Japan, Switzerland and Australia. Within Japanese Sectors, we focus on opportunities within Technology, Financials, Health Care, and Staples. We also highlight attractive setups within European/UK Sectors, including Health Care, Industrials, Staples and Utilities.

At this point in time the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM) have failed to break above their respective resistance levels, leaving us squarely in the neutral camp. We believe the aforementioned major global indexes are likely to remain below resistance or have limited upside unless and until we see more definitive signs of bottoming within cyclical value areas of the market. In this report we recap important technical levels for the major indexes and highlight actionable set-ups within the utilities, travel and leisure and consumer staples industries.

At this point in time the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM) have failed to break above their respective resistance levels, leaving us squarely in the neutral camp. We believe the aforementioned major global indexes are likely to remain below resistance or have limited upside unless and until we see more definitive signs of bottoming within cyclical value areas of the market. In this report we recap important technical levels for the major indexes and highlight actionable set-ups within the utilities, travel and leisure and consumer staples industries.

Global Equity Strategy: Squarely in the Neutral Camp

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
Up-to-date investment decision advice (buy, hold, sell)
Monthly regional and global conference calls
Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The risk of Britain crashing out of the European Union (EU) is very real and not currently priced in to markets.</li>
<li>The idea that the world’s fifth largest economy will abruptly crash out of the world’s largest economy (the EU bloc is larger than the US) and not roil markets is naive.</li>
<li>UK/EU trading relationship is very significant with 44% of UK exports and 53% of UK imports going to/coming form EU.</li>
<li>The market needs to consider the impact of three possible outcomes: Negotiated Departure Approved by UK Parliament, Crash Out with No Deal, Delay.</li>
<li>We believe that any three of these outcomes are a negative for markets with the worst-case being a no-deal crash out.</li>
<li>Specific names to avoid include: International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (IAG), Easyjet (EZJ), Thomas Cook (TCG), Xpo Logistics Europe SA (XPOP) and H &amp; M Hennes &amp; Mauritz AB (HM-B).</li>
</ul>


The risk of Britain crashing out of the European Union (EU) is very real and not currently priced in to markets.
The idea that the world’s fifth largest economy will abruptly crash out of the world’s largest economy (the EU bloc is larger than the US) and not roil markets is naive.
UK/EU trading relationship is very significant with 44% of UK exports and 53% of UK imports going to/coming form EU.
The market needs to consider the impact of three possible outcomes: Negotiated Departure Approved by UK Parliament, Crash Out with No Deal, Delay.
We believe that any three of these outcomes are a negative for markets with the worst-case being a no-deal crash out.
Specific names to avoid include: International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (IAG), Easyjet (EZJ), Thomas Cook (TCG), Xpo Logistics Europe SA (XPOP) and H &amp; M Hennes &amp; Mauritz AB (HM-B).


BREXIT Risk Not Priced In - Watch for Volatility and Weakness - Look to SARS 2003 for Parallels

Index Rebalance and Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Afridi Reyal

Index Rebalance and Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. It is not highly tracked, but we can expect many index changes during its quarterly review.</li>
<li>Our latest estimates suggest there could be 14 ADDs/DELs for SE600 in the June 2026 rebal.</li>
<li>The final rankings will be based on the float market caps as of the close of trading on 29th May 2026.</li>
</ul>


The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. It is not highly tracked, but we can expect many index changes during its quarterly review.
Our latest estimates suggest there could be 14 ADDs/DELs for SE600 in the June 2026 rebal.
The final rankings will be based on the float market caps as of the close of trading on 29th May 2026.


Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Jun26: Base Date This Week; Many Changes Incoming

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major support level we identified as support, and the MSCI ACWI ETF has broken below its 200-day MA, leading us to believe additional consolidation is likely.

Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major support level we identified as support, and the MSCI ACWI ETF has broken below its 200-day MA, leading us to believe additional consolidation is likely. 

EM and ACWI Showing Decisive Breakdowns - Metals & Miners Still Attractive

United Kingdom

easyJet is a British multinational low-cost airline and package holiday group that operates domestic and international scheduled services across numerous routes in over 34 countries. The company primarily focuses on providing air travel services with an emphasis on low fares, operational efficiency, and a point-to-point model. Headquartered at London Luton Airport in the UK, easyJet was founded in 1995.

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easyJet (EZJ LN)

Developed Markets Opportunities

Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Squarely in the Neutral Camp

At this point in time the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM) have failed to break above their respective resistance levels,...

Vermilion Research

BREXIT Risk Not Priced In - Watch for Volatility and Weakness - Look to SARS 2003 for Parallels

The risk of Britain crashing out of the European Union (EU) is very real and not currently priced in to markets. The idea that the world’s fifth...

David Riedel

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Jun26: Base Date This Week; Many Changes Incoming

The final rankings for the June 2026 rebal will be based on data as of 29th May 2026. The ADDs/DELs will be announced on 1st June 2026. Bank...

Afridi Reyal

EM and ACWI Showing Decisive Breakdowns - Metals & Miners Still Attractive

Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major...

Vermilion Research

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