Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>At this point in time the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM) have failed to break above their respective resistance levels, leaving us squarely in the neutral camp. We believe the aforementioned major global indexes are likely to remain below resistance or have limited upside unless and until we see more definitive signs of bottoming within cyclical value areas of the market. In this report we recap important technical levels for the major indexes and highlight actionable set-ups within the utilities, travel and leisure and consumer staples industries.</p>

At this point in time the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM) have failed to break above their respective resistance levels, leaving us squarely in the neutral camp. We believe the aforementioned major global indexes are likely to remain below resistance or have limited upside unless and until we see more definitive signs of bottoming within cyclical value areas of the market. In this report we recap important technical levels for the major indexes and highlight actionable set-ups within the utilities, travel and leisure and consumer staples industries.

Global Equity Strategy: Squarely in the Neutral Camp

Director | Exposing Creative Accounting, Bucephalus Research Partnership

Robert Medd

Director | Exposing Creative Accounting

Exposing Creative Accounting

Bucephalus Research Partnership

Bucephalus Research Partnership Limited. Exposing Creative Accounting.

At the Bucephalus Research Partnership (BRP) we analyse financial statements using our accountant's practical experience and our own quantitative algorithms for corporate governance, accounting risk and peer performance.

Our thematic research refines our unique algorithms while our single stock research focuses on examples where we discover a significant gap between published accounts and business reality.

​Bucephalus Research Partnership:
- Is an independent fee-based research service
- Does not take proprietary positions, long or short
- Does not solicit business or fees from the corporates we review

Forensic Accounting

<p>The Bucephalus Idea Generator (BIG) picks stocks by combining our work on<strong> </strong><strong>Creative Accounting</strong> and our work on <strong>capex and valuation cycles</strong> to see which companies are forecast to generate extreme returns and/or are on extreme valuations. The model then creates performance outcomes to search for absolute and relative investment ideas.</p><p>We run the model every month to see what has changed and which companies are worthy of further investigation.</p><p></p><p><a href="https://www.buceph.com/bucephalus-idea-model-604975.html" target="_blank">Click here </a>to download a sample company overview from the Bucephalus Idea Generator.</p>

The Bucephalus Idea Generator (BIG) picks stocks by combining our work on Creative Accounting and our work on capex and valuation cycles to see which companies are forecast to generate extreme returns and/or are on extreme valuations. The model then creates performance outcomes to search for absolute and relative investment ideas.We run the model every month to see what has changed and which companies are worthy of further investigation.Click here to download a sample company overview from the Bucephalus Idea Generator.

Extreme Valuations: Global Stock Ideas Using the BORUC Yield

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
Up-to-date investment decision advice (buy, hold, sell)
Monthly regional and global conference calls
Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The risk of Britain crashing out of the European Union (EU) is very real and not currently priced in to markets.</li>
<li>The idea that the world’s fifth largest economy will abruptly crash out of the world’s largest economy (the EU bloc is larger than the US) and not roil markets is naive.</li>
<li>UK/EU trading relationship is very significant with 44% of UK exports and 53% of UK imports going to/coming form EU.</li>
<li>The market needs to consider the impact of three possible outcomes: Negotiated Departure Approved by UK Parliament, Crash Out with No Deal, Delay.</li>
<li>We believe that any three of these outcomes are a negative for markets with the worst-case being a no-deal crash out.</li>
<li>Specific names to avoid include: International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (IAG), Easyjet (EZJ), Thomas Cook (TCG), Xpo Logistics Europe SA (XPOP) and H &amp; M Hennes &amp; Mauritz AB (HM-B).</li>
</ul>


The risk of Britain crashing out of the European Union (EU) is very real and not currently priced in to markets.
The idea that the world’s fifth largest economy will abruptly crash out of the world’s largest economy (the EU bloc is larger than the US) and not roil markets is naive.
UK/EU trading relationship is very significant with 44% of UK exports and 53% of UK imports going to/coming form EU.
The market needs to consider the impact of three possible outcomes: Negotiated Departure Approved by UK Parliament, Crash Out with No Deal, Delay.
We believe that any three of these outcomes are a negative for markets with the worst-case being a no-deal crash out.
Specific names to avoid include: International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (IAG), Easyjet (EZJ), Thomas Cook (TCG), Xpo Logistics Europe SA (XPOP) and H &amp; M Hennes &amp; Mauritz AB (HM-B).


BREXIT Risk Not Priced In - Watch for Volatility and Weakness - Look to SARS 2003 for Parallels

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<p>Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major support level we identified as support, and the MSCI ACWI ETF has broken below its 200-day MA, leading us to believe additional consolidation is likely. </p>

Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major support level we identified as support, and the MSCI ACWI ETF has broken below its 200-day MA, leading us to believe additional consolidation is likely. 

EM and ACWI Showing Decisive Breakdowns - Metals & Miners Still Attractive

Asia Ex-J Consumer/ Transport analyst

Valerie Law, CFA

<p>It has been slightly over half a year since I joined this community, so here is a brief summary of stock calls that worked and stock calls that didn't work for me. </p><blockquote><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>But first, a note of thanks to the SK community</strong></p></blockquote><p>Besides doing an update, it is also an opportunity to thank everyone here at Smartkarma for your wonderful support (especially the Data Desk team) and collaborative work with fellow insight providers. Looking forward to a stellar year ahead together!</p><h2>Table showing IPO deals covered</h2><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>IPO</strong></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>…

It has been slightly over half a year since I joined this community, so here is a brief summary of stock calls that worked and stock calls that didn't work for me. But first, a note of thanks to the SK communityBesides doing an update, it is also an opportunity to thank everyone here at Smartkarma for your wonderful support (especially the Data Desk team) and collaborative work with fellow insight providers. Looking forward to a stellar year ahead together!Table showing IPO deals covered

IPO

…

United Kingdom

easyJet plc, a low-cost passenger airline, conducts operations throughout the United Kingdom and mainland Europe.  The Company sells the majority of its tickets through its Web site.

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easyJet PLC (EZJ LN)

Global Equity Strategy: Squarely in the Neutral Camp

At this point in time the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM) have failed to break above their respective resistance levels,...

Vermilion Research

Extreme Valuations: Global Stock Ideas Using the BORUC Yield

The Bucephalus Idea Generator (BIG) picks stocks by combining our work on Creative Accounting and our work on capex and valuation cycles to see...

Bucephalus Research Partnership

BREXIT Risk Not Priced In - Watch for Volatility and Weakness - Look to SARS 2003 for Parallels

The risk of Britain crashing out of the European Union (EU) is very real and not currently priced in to markets. The idea that the world’s fifth...

David Riedel

EM and ACWI Showing Decisive Breakdowns - Metals & Miners Still Attractive

Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major...

Vermilion Research

A Summary of Stock Calls and Actions

It has been slightly over half a year since I joined this community, so here is a brief summary of stock calls that worked and stock calls that...

Valerie Law, CFA

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