Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
AI-Levered core: Precision Machinery drives &gt;60% of future profits via CMP near-duopoly and dry vacuum leadership, tightly linked to AI, HBM and advanced-node WFE capex.</li>
<li>
 Balanced earnings base: Data-centre liquid cooling in BS&amp;I adds defensive, secular growth and margin upside, while Energy provides niche LNG/hydrogen optionality and earnings diversification.</li>
<li>
 Valuation disconnect: Trades at industrial multiples despite semi-like growth; SOTP implies ~35% upside as capex peaks, margins normalize and FCF inflect into FY26–27.</li>
</ul>



AI-Levered core: Precision Machinery drives &gt;60% of future profits via CMP near-duopoly and dry vacuum leadership, tightly linked to AI, HBM and advanced-node WFE capex.

 Balanced earnings base: Data-centre liquid cooling in BS&amp;I adds defensive, secular growth and margin upside, while Energy provides niche LNG/hydrogen optionality and earnings diversification.

 Valuation disconnect: Trades at industrial multiples despite semi-like growth; SOTP implies ~35% upside as capex peaks, margins normalize and FCF inflect into FY26–27.


Ebara Corp (6361 JP) | A Mispriced AI Enabler

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>After the recent rally, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ebara-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4728:1" rel="noopener">Ebara Corp (6361 JP)</a>'s increased market cap and free float market cap should result in inclusion in a global index in November.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ebara-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4728:1" rel="noopener">Ebara Corp (6361 JP)</a> has underperformed its larger peers, and the stock is trading cheaper than the average of its peers on most metrics.</li>
<li>There has been a large increase in cumulative excess volume for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ebara-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4728:1" rel="noopener">Ebara Corp (6361 JP)</a> since July and we do not see a similar increase in its peers.</li>
</ul>


After the recent rally, Ebara Corp (6361 JP)'s increased market cap and free float market cap should result in inclusion in a global index in November.

Ebara Corp (6361 JP) has underperformed its larger peers, and the stock is trading cheaper than the average of its peers on most metrics.
There has been a large increase in cumulative excess volume for Ebara Corp (6361 JP) since July and we do not see a similar increase in its peers.


Ebara (6361 JP): Global Index Inclusion & Increased Positioning

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Nikkei +4.6%, Topix +2.5% – strongest weekly performance since February and new YTD highs, driven by semiconductors and broad-based tech momentum.</li>
<li>Risk sentiment normalized after initial geopolitical shock from U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities; focus rotated back to U.S. macro and policy dovishness.</li>
<li>Sector divergence – semiconductors and telcos sharply outperform; Oil &amp; Gas lags amid energy volatility.</li>
</ul>


Nikkei +4.6%, Topix +2.5% – strongest weekly performance since February and new YTD highs, driven by semiconductors and broad-based tech momentum.
Risk sentiment normalized after initial geopolitical shock from U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities; focus rotated back to U.S. macro and policy dovishness.
Sector divergence – semiconductors and telcos sharply outperform; Oil &amp; Gas lags amid energy volatility.


Japan Weekly | Tech Soars as Geopolitics Risks Ease

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>Japan SPE names starting to stir day 1 of trading.</li>
<li>Watch oversold previous winners for renewed interest such as Disco, Screen and TEL now China concerns are priced in.</li>
<li>A good read for photoresist/semi-chem plays after TOK's better than expected MTP yesterday.</li>
</ul>


Japan SPE names starting to stir day 1 of trading.
Watch oversold previous winners for renewed interest such as Disco, Screen and TEL now China concerns are priced in.
A good read for photoresist/semi-chem plays after TOK's better than expected MTP yesterday.


AI Related Plays Out of the Gates Strong for 2025

<ul>
<li>Topix added 1.7%, driven by speculation that the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) will increase its investment ratio in Japanese stocks</li>
<li>Retail stocks notable performers this week as the TSE's retail sector hit a year-to-date high, surging 21% since January</li>
<li>Notable performers this week included Fujikura on street upgrades, Ito-en after announcing a new marketing campaign, and Ebara's gaining recognition as a laggard</li>
</ul>


Topix added 1.7%, driven by speculation that the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) will increase its investment ratio in Japanese stocks
Retail stocks notable performers this week as the TSE's retail sector hit a year-to-date high, surging 21% since January
Notable performers this week included Fujikura on street upgrades, Ito-en after announcing a new marketing campaign, and Ebara's gaining recognition as a laggard


Japan

EBARA CORPORATION manufactures pneumatic and hydraulic pumps and related equipment.  The Company's products include fuel, oil, water, and firefighting pumps, as well as steam turbines and boilers.  Ebara Corporation also engineers garbage incinerators, smoke desulfurizers, and other products related to environmental technology.

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Ebara Corp (6361 JP)