Independent Research, US Dominant Players, Investment Talk

Investment Talk

Independent Research, US Dominant Players

Investment Talk is for readers who wish to learn about companies that are potentially outside of their own circle of research, as well as those who are longing to become part of a community of like-minded investors and learn more about investment research. I would describe myself as a long-term investor who typically takes a 3Y to 5Y outlook, before reassessing once that period matures. I follow the adage that one should research, reach a conclusion, and then verify and continue to hold so long as the thesis remains intact. My own investing style is one that seeks to find dominant players within their respective market who have shown signs of monopoly or oligopolistic behaviour, unlikely to be disrupted, in tandem with discovering market disruptors who have a high likelihood of disrupting their respective market. Equally (and weighted accordingly) I seek to discover more nuanced, misunderstood, situations with a shorter time frame.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>A while ago I wrote a piece about share cannibals and where to find them. Since we introduced the ability to screen for share cannibals at Koyfin (the screener I use, if interested) I have been exploring aggressive share repurchasers more often.</li><li>Evident to me, is the disparity in attitudes towards share repurchases between US and European stocks.</li><li>When casting a wide geographical net in the screener and searching for the loftiest reduction in share count (as a %), the US companies proliferate the output.</li></ul>

A while ago I wrote a piece about share cannibals and where to find them. Since we introduced the ability to screen for share cannibals at Koyfin (the screener I use, if interested) I have been exploring aggressive share repurchasers more often.Evident to me, is the disparity in attitudes towards share repurchases between US and European stocks.When casting a wide geographical net in the screener and searching for the loftiest reduction in share count (as a %), the US companies proliferate the output.

Companies That are Fixated on Buying Back Stock

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Crooz’s Shop-list.com used to be one of the fastest growing online fashion malls in Japan but, just before Covid, it hit a wall and hasn’t recovered since. </li>
<li>Now it will be merged with Korean fashion mall, Nugu, and its real value as a database of young female consumers will become clear. </li>
<li>This should help Nugu grow to GTVs of ¥100 billion from Japan alone but will leave Crooz as a small bit player in digital services.</li>
</ul>


Crooz’s Shop-list.com used to be one of the fastest growing online fashion malls in Japan but, just before Covid, it hit a wall and hasn’t recovered since. 
Now it will be merged with Korean fashion mall, Nugu, and its real value as a database of young female consumers will become clear. 
This should help Nugu grow to GTVs of ¥100 billion from Japan alone but will leave Crooz as a small bit player in digital services.


Crooz Sells Online Mall Business to Korea’s Nugu

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mongodb-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26655:1" rel="noopener">MongoDB (MDB US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/biogen-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:972:1" rel="noopener">Biogen Inc (BIIB US)</a> are the main candidates for deletion based on their current and previous-review ranking.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ansys-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15473:1" rel="noopener">Ansys Inc (ANSS US)</a> is expected to be deleted from the index by June 2025 following its $35bn acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/synopsys-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3493:1" rel="noopener">Synopsys Inc (SNPS US)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-airlines-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15776:1" rel="noopener">United Airlines Holdings (UAL US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alnylam-pharmaceuticals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2191:1" rel="noopener">Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US)</a> are <em>currently</em> the main candidates for addition, thus the first in line to replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ansys-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15473:1" rel="noopener">Ansys Inc (ANSS US)</a>.</li>
</ul>



MongoDB (MDB US) and Biogen Inc (BIIB US) are the main candidates for deletion based on their current and previous-review ranking.

Ansys Inc (ANSS US) is expected to be deleted from the index by June 2025 following its $35bn acquisition by Synopsys Inc (SNPS US). 

United Airlines Holdings (UAL US) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US) are currently the main candidates for addition, thus the first in line to replace Ansys Inc (ANSS US).


Nasdaq100 Dec2025 Forecast (Part 1): MDB & BIIB in Trouble; UAL & ALNY First Replacements

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In 3Q24, PDD released strong revenue growth, but a flat margin.</li>
<li>We believe, in 2025, PDD will continue to focus on growth rather than profit.</li>
<li>We conclude an upside of 43% and a price target of US$167 for 2025. Buy.</li>
</ul>


In 3Q24, PDD released strong revenue growth, but a flat margin.
We believe, in 2025, PDD will continue to focus on growth rather than profit.
We conclude an upside of 43% and a price target of US$167 for 2025. Buy.


PDD (PDD US): 3Q24, Focuses on Growth, But Not Profit Margin

<ul>
<li>Temu as a subsidiary of PDD becomes the second largest global e-commerce website.</li>
<li>Meituan merges departments into fewer business units to cut expenses further.</li>
<li>Mercedes-Benz left the joint venture with BYD, as its high end products are not as popular as Tesla models.</li>
</ul>


Temu as a subsidiary of PDD becomes the second largest global e-commerce website.
Meituan merges departments into fewer business units to cut expenses further.
Mercedes-Benz left the joint venture with BYD, as its high end products are not as popular as Tesla models.


China Consumption Weekly (30 Sep 2024): PDD, Meituan, BYD, Benz, Miniso, Yonghui

United States

eBay Inc. operates an online trading community.  The Company's service is used by buyers and sellers for the exchange of products and services such as coins, collectibles, computers, memorabilia, stamps and toys, as well as concert and sporting tickets.  eBay also offers, through a subsidiary, secure online payment services.

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Ebay Inc (EBAY US)

Companies That are Fixated on Buying Back Stock

Since we introduced the ability to screen for share cannibals at Koyfin (the screener I use, if interested) I have been exploring aggressive share...

Investment Talk

Crooz Sells Online Mall Business to Korea’s Nugu

Crooz's Shop-list.com merges with Nugu to leverage database of young female consumers, boosting Nugu's growth in Japan while leaving Crooz as a...

Michael Causton

Nasdaq100 Dec2025 Forecast (Part 1): MDB & BIIB in Trouble; UAL & ALNY First Replacements

Ansys (ANSS) is expected to be deleted from Nasdaq100 by June 2025 following its acquisition by Synopsys (SNPS). United Airlines (UAL) and Alnylam...

Dimitris Ioannidis

PDD (PDD US): 3Q24, Focuses on Growth, But Not Profit Margin

In 3Q24, PDD released strong revenue growth, but a flat margin. We believe, in 2025, PDD will continue to focus on growth more than profit margin....

Ming Lu

China Consumption Weekly (30 Sep 2024): PDD, Meituan, BYD, Benz, Miniso, Yonghui

Temu becomes the second largest global e-commerce website. Meituan merges departments to cut expenses. Mercedes-Benz left the joint venture with...

Ming Lu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Companies That are Fixated on Buying Back Stock

Since we introduced the ability to screen for share cannibals at Koyfin (the screener I use, if interested) I have been exploring aggressive share...

Investment Talk

Crooz Sells Online Mall Business to Korea’s Nugu

​Crooz's Shop-list.com merges with Nugu to leverage database of young female consumers, boosting Nugu's growth in Japan while leaving Crooz as a...

Michael Causton

Nasdaq100 Dec2025 Forecast (Part 1): MDB & BIIB in Trouble; UAL & ALNY First Replacements

Ansys (ANSS) is expected to be deleted from Nasdaq100 by June 2025 following its acquisition by Synopsys (SNPS). United Airlines (UAL) and Alnylam...

Dimitris Ioannidis

PDD (PDD US): 3Q24, Focuses on Growth, But Not Profit Margin

In 3Q24, PDD released strong revenue growth, but a flat margin. We believe, in 2025, PDD will continue to focus on growth more than profit margin....

Ming Lu

China Consumption Weekly (30 Sep 2024): PDD, Meituan, BYD, Benz, Miniso, Yonghui

Temu becomes the second largest global e-commerce website. Meituan merges departments to cut expenses. Mercedes-Benz left the joint venture with...

Ming Lu

Crooz's Shop-list.com merges with Nugu to leverage database of young female consumers, boosting Nugu's growth in Japan while leaving Crooz as a...