New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>EBOS Group (EBO) reiterated its FY26 EBITDA and implied NPAT guidance as part of its 2025 annual shareholder meeting (ASM) materials.</li><li>The SVS acquisition is outperforming expectations.</li><li>More broadly, we see the guidance reiteration as a small positive amid uncertainty and it suggests healthcare margins will sequentially stabilise in FY25 from 2H25 after consecutive periods of sequential declines.</li></ul>

EBOS Group (EBO) reiterated its FY26 EBITDA and implied NPAT guidance as part of its 2025 annual shareholder meeting (ASM) materials.The SVS acquisition is outperforming expectations.More broadly, we see the guidance reiteration as a small positive amid uncertainty and it suggests healthcare margins will sequentially stabilise in FY25 from 2H25 after consecutive periods of sequential declines.

<ul><li>We upgrade EBOS Group (EBO) to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL.</li><li>Beyond FY26, we believe the combination of: (1) improved facility utilisation; (2) boosted pharmacy wholesaler funding; (3) gradual retendering of pharmacy contracts; and (4) financial leverage should provide robust EPS growth (FY26–FY29 CAGR of ~+10%).</li><li>We recognise regaining investor certainty will not be an overnight fix and encourage greater disclosure and transparency to reduce P&amp;L opaqueness.</li></ul>

We upgrade EBOS Group (EBO) to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL.Beyond FY26, we believe the combination of: (1) improved facility utilisation; (2) boosted pharmacy wholesaler funding; (3) gradual retendering of pharmacy contracts; and (4) financial leverage should provide robust EPS growth (FY26–FY29 CAGR of ~+10%).We recognise regaining investor certainty will not be an overnight fix and encourage greater disclosure and transparency to reduce P&amp;L opaqueness.

EBOS Group All Is Not Lost—Up To OUTPERFORM

<ul><li>We downgrade our rating on EBOS Group (EBO) from OUTPERFORM to NEUTRAL following the disappointing FY25 result.</li><li>The key from here is gathering confidence that this is a reset earnings base.</li><li>We also struggle to see near-term catalysts, especially as EBO undergoes a period of management change.</li></ul>

We downgrade our rating on EBOS Group (EBO) from OUTPERFORM to NEUTRAL following the disappointing FY25 result.The key from here is gathering confidence that this is a reset earnings base.We also struggle to see near-term catalysts, especially as EBO undergoes a period of management change.

EBOS Group FY25 Result—Reset and Lacking Catalysts

<ul><li>We forecast EBOS Group (EBO) to exceed consensus earnings expectations when it reports on Wednesday, 27 August.</li><li>While EBITDA will be down versus the prior year, it should be near or above the top end of its guidance (A$600m), reflecting solid performance excluding the CW contract loss (low double-digit EBITDA growth ex CW).</li><li>Key focus areas for us are: (1) Community Pharmacy earnings decomposition—market share gains, organic growth and margins; (2) commentary from the new CEO—particularly around strategy and M&amp;A; (3) Contract Logistics performance and outlook; and (4) Institutional Healthcare (IH) exit rate after a slightly soft 1H25 Medical Technology period.</li></ul>

We forecast EBOS Group (EBO) to exceed consensus earnings expectations when it reports on Wednesday, 27 August.While EBITDA will be down versus the prior year, it should be near or above the top end of its guidance (A$600m), reflecting solid performance excluding the CW contract loss (low double-digit EBITDA growth ex CW).Key focus areas for us are: (1) Community Pharmacy earnings decomposition—market share gains, organic growth and margins; (2) commentary from the new CEO—particularly around strategy and M&amp;A; (3) Contract Logistics performance and outlook; and (4) Institutional Healthcare (IH) exit rate after a slightly soft 1H25 Medical Technology period.

EBOS Group Fy25 Preview—Transitioning With Strength

<ul><li>EBOS Group's Asia (Transmedic) and allografts (Aus Bio) businesses represent &gt;15% of FY25 group EBITDA and have higher organic growth than the group over the medium term.</li><li>Transmedic is the leading pan-Asia player and is estimated to hold only 1%–2% of the market, highlighting the fragmentation.</li><li>Aus Bio is a hidden gem with high EBITDA margins underpinned by limited input costs and its regulated near monopoly market position, with increasing clinician preference supporting market growth of +10%–15%.</li></ul>

EBOS Group's Asia (Transmedic) and allografts (Aus Bio) businesses represent &gt;15% of FY25 group EBITDA and have higher organic growth than the group over the medium term.Transmedic is the leading pan-Asia player and is estimated to hold only 1%–2% of the market, highlighting the fragmentation.Aus Bio is a hidden gem with high EBITDA margins underpinned by limited input costs and its regulated near monopoly market position, with increasing clinician preference supporting market growth of +10%–15%.

EBOS Group Illuminating Asia & Allografts

New Zealand

EBOS Group Limited supplies and distributes medical consumable products and equipment to the hospital and primary care sectors of the New Zealand and Australian healthcare markets. The Company's products include diagnostic instruments, surgical instruments and prosthesis, feminine protection, anesthetic equipment, and other consumer products.

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Ebos Group Ltd (EBO NZ)

EBOS Group 103rd AGM—Baby Steps

EBOS Group (EBO) reiterated its FY26 EBITDA and implied NPAT guidance as part of its 2025 annual shareholder meeting (ASM) materials.

Forsyth Barr

EBOS Group All Is Not Lost—Up To OUTPERFORM

We recognise regaining investor certainty will not be an overnight fix and encourage greater disclosure and transparency to reduce P&L opaqueness.

Forsyth Barr

EBOS Group FY25 Result—Reset and Lacking Catalysts

In aggregate, from FY23–FY26 EBO will invest A$360m in Healthcare infrastructure across eight sites, which will deliver a net 20% increase in...

Forsyth Barr

EBOS Group Fy25 Preview—Transitioning With Strength

While EBITDA will be down versus the prior year, it should be near or above the top end of its guidance (A$600m), reflecting solid performance...

Forsyth Barr

EBOS Group Illuminating Asia & Allografts

EBOS Group's Asia (Transmedic) and allografts (Aus Bio) businesses represent >15% of FY25 group EBITDA and have higher organic growth than the...

Forsyth Barr

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