New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Cor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We make a number of temporary changes to our company coverage responsibilities with immediate effect due to Matt Montgomerie's period of travel-related extended leave.</li><li>Coverage temporarily transferred to Ben Crozier.</li><li>Matt is due to return in early 2027.</li></ul>

We make a number of temporary changes to our company coverage responsibilities with immediate effect due to Matt Montgomerie's period of travel-related extended leave.Coverage temporarily transferred to Ben Crozier.Matt is due to return in early 2027.

Company Coverage Temporary Coverage Changes

<ul><li>We upgrade EBOS Group (EBO) to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL.</li><li>Beyond FY26, we believe the combination of: (1) improved facility utilisation; (2) boosted pharmacy wholesaler funding; (3) gradual retendering of pharmacy contracts; and (4) financial leverage should provide robust EPS growth (FY26–FY29 CAGR of ~+10%).</li><li>We recognise regaining investor certainty will not be an overnight fix and encourage greater disclosure and transparency to reduce P&amp;L opaqueness.</li></ul>

We upgrade EBOS Group (EBO) to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL.Beyond FY26, we believe the combination of: (1) improved facility utilisation; (2) boosted pharmacy wholesaler funding; (3) gradual retendering of pharmacy contracts; and (4) financial leverage should provide robust EPS growth (FY26–FY29 CAGR of ~+10%).We recognise regaining investor certainty will not be an overnight fix and encourage greater disclosure and transparency to reduce P&amp;L opaqueness.

EBOS Group All Is Not Lost—Up To OUTPERFORM

<ul><li>Freightways (FRW) has been one of the most acquisitive companies on the NZX over the past 20 years, yet its acquisition strategy has only recently started to add meaningful value as it has pursued larger deals within adjacent growth sectors.</li><li>We retain a NEUTRAL rating but recognise the attraction of value-add potential from future M&amp;A.</li><li>Its pipeline of potential opportunities is long (we suspect it includes parts of TGE, Hunter Express, ACN Delivers, Kings, and Capital Transport), according to management, but deals are usually subject to a willing buyer and a willing seller.</li></ul>

Freightways (FRW) has been one of the most acquisitive companies on the NZX over the past 20 years, yet its acquisition strategy has only recently started to add meaningful value as it has pursued larger deals within adjacent growth sectors.We retain a NEUTRAL rating but recognise the attraction of value-add potential from future M&amp;A.Its pipeline of potential opportunities is long (we suspect it includes parts of TGE, Hunter Express, ACN Delivers, Kings, and Capital Transport), according to management, but deals are usually subject to a willing buyer and a willing seller.

<ul><li>We downgrade our rating on EBOS Group (EBO) from OUTPERFORM to NEUTRAL following the disappointing FY25 result.</li><li>The key from here is gathering confidence that this is a reset earnings base.</li><li>We also struggle to see near-term catalysts, especially as EBO undergoes a period of management change.</li></ul>

We downgrade our rating on EBOS Group (EBO) from OUTPERFORM to NEUTRAL following the disappointing FY25 result.The key from here is gathering confidence that this is a reset earnings base.We also struggle to see near-term catalysts, especially as EBO undergoes a period of management change.

EBOS Group FY25 Result—Reset and Lacking Catalysts

<ul><li>We forecast EBOS Group (EBO) to exceed consensus earnings expectations when it reports on Wednesday, 27 August.</li><li>While EBITDA will be down versus the prior year, it should be near or above the top end of its guidance (A$600m), reflecting solid performance excluding the CW contract loss (low double-digit EBITDA growth ex CW).</li><li>Key focus areas for us are: (1) Community Pharmacy earnings decomposition—market share gains, organic growth and margins; (2) commentary from the new CEO—particularly around strategy and M&amp;A; (3) Contract Logistics performance and outlook; and (4) Institutional Healthcare (IH) exit rate after a slightly soft 1H25 Medical Technology period.</li></ul>

We forecast EBOS Group (EBO) to exceed consensus earnings expectations when it reports on Wednesday, 27 August.While EBITDA will be down versus the prior year, it should be near or above the top end of its guidance (A$600m), reflecting solid performance excluding the CW contract loss (low double-digit EBITDA growth ex CW).Key focus areas for us are: (1) Community Pharmacy earnings decomposition—market share gains, organic growth and margins; (2) commentary from the new CEO—particularly around strategy and M&amp;A; (3) Contract Logistics performance and outlook; and (4) Institutional Healthcare (IH) exit rate after a slightly soft 1H25 Medical Technology period.

EBOS Group Fy25 Preview—Transitioning With Strength

New Zealand

EBOS Group Limited supplies and distributes medical consumable products and equipment to the hospital and primary care sectors of the New Zealand and Australian healthcare markets. The Company's products include diagnostic instruments, surgical instruments and prosthesis, feminine protection, anesthetic equipment, and other consumer products.

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Ebos Group Ltd (EBO NZ)

Company Coverage Temporary Coverage Changes

We make a number of temporary changes to our company coverage responsibilities with immediate effect due to Matt Montgomerie's period of...

Forsyth Barr

EBOS Group All Is Not Lost—Up To OUTPERFORM

We recognise regaining investor certainty will not be an overnight fix and encourage greater disclosure and transparency to reduce P&L opaqueness.

Forsyth Barr

Freightways A Truckload Of M&A

Its pipeline of potential opportunities is long (we suspect it includes parts of TGE, Hunter Express, ACN Delivers, Kings, and Capital Transport),...

Forsyth Barr

EBOS Group FY25 Result—Reset and Lacking Catalysts

In aggregate, from FY23–FY26 EBO will invest A$360m in Healthcare infrastructure across eight sites, which will deliver a net 20% increase in...

Forsyth Barr

EBOS Group Fy25 Preview—Transitioning With Strength

While EBITDA will be down versus the prior year, it should be near or above the top end of its guidance (A$600m), reflecting solid performance...

Forsyth Barr

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