Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We preview <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ump-healthcare-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21005:1" rel="noopener">UMP Healthcare (722 HK)</a>  earnings for FY24 (June-end), which will be declared in September, and our outlook for FY25. </li>
<li>The company has more than 300 mn HKD of net cash (almost 75% of its market cap), and even assuming a 20% dividend cut, it has an ~8% dividend yield.</li>
<li>On core earnings for FY24, we estimate that the stock trades at 12x PE( ex-cash 2.8x PE), with low-hanging fruit from streamlining the business in FY25. </li>
</ul>


We preview UMP Healthcare (722 HK)  earnings for FY24 (June-end), which will be declared in September, and our outlook for FY25. 
The company has more than 300 mn HKD of net cash (almost 75% of its market cap), and even assuming a 20% dividend cut, it has an ~8% dividend yield.
On core earnings for FY24, we estimate that the stock trades at 12x PE( ex-cash 2.8x PE), with low-hanging fruit from streamlining the business in FY25. 


UMP Healthcare (722 HK): Deep Value Turnaround in FY25

Perfect Medical Health / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We spoke with the management of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perfect-medical-health-management" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3639:1" rel="noopener">Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK)</a>. The key highlight is a steady recovery for FY24e and an overall expansion of 60% in three years. </li>
<li>Expansion plans in HK (75% of revenue) have commenced, with ten centers opening over the year, adding to the existing 22 HK centers (one already opened in June 2023).</li>
<li>They also highlighted an aggressive long-term goal of making one bn HKD of profit by FY26 (Mkt cap: 4.8 bn HKD) and short-term guidance of 30-40% profit growth for FY24e. </li>
</ul>


We spoke with the management of Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK). The key highlight is a steady recovery for FY24e and an overall expansion of 60% in three years. 
Expansion plans in HK (75% of revenue) have commenced, with ten centers opening over the year, adding to the existing 22 HK centers (one already opened in June 2023).
They also highlighted an aggressive long-term goal of making one bn HKD of profit by FY26 (Mkt cap: 4.8 bn HKD) and short-term guidance of 30-40% profit growth for FY24e. 


Perfect Medical Management FY23 Concall: Highlights Bright Outlook for FY24, Aggressive Expansion

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 38 adds and 29 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 518.</li>
<li>We expect 33 of the 38 HSCI inclusions to be added to Stock Connect while we expect 27 of the 29 HSCI deletions to be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>Since the start of the calendar year, shares held though Southbound Connect have increased in 22 of the 27 HSCI deletions that will also be removed from Stock Connect.</li>
</ul>


There are 38 adds and 29 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 518.
We expect 33 of the 38 HSCI inclusions to be added to Stock Connect while we expect 27 of the 29 HSCI deletions to be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.
Since the start of the calendar year, shares held though Southbound Connect have increased in 22 of the 27 HSCI deletions that will also be removed from Stock Connect.


HSCI Index Rebalance: 38 Adds, 29 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ec-healthcare" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22630:1" rel="noopener">EC Healthcare (2138 HK)</a> reported muted FY24 result. While revenue increased 9% YoY to a record high of HK$4.2B, EBITDA and net profit declined 10% and 85%, YoY, respectively.</li>
<li>The reopening of borders saw a slower-than-anticipated recovery in revenue from Chinese Mainland medical tourism. The prevailing high interest rate, inflationary pressure, and economic uncertainties have made the operations challenging.</li>
<li>EC Healthcare shares plunged ~70% over the last one year. Although the company has long-term growth drivers and margin levers, there is short-term uncertainties over financial performance improvement.</li>
</ul>



EC Healthcare (2138 HK) reported muted FY24 result. While revenue increased 9% YoY to a record high of HK$4.2B, EBITDA and net profit declined 10% and 85%, YoY, respectively.
The reopening of borders saw a slower-than-anticipated recovery in revenue from Chinese Mainland medical tourism. The prevailing high interest rate, inflationary pressure, and economic uncertainties have made the operations challenging.
EC Healthcare shares plunged ~70% over the last one year. Although the company has long-term growth drivers and margin levers, there is short-term uncertainties over financial performance improvement.


EC Healthcare (2138 HK): Shares at Multi-Year Low; Still Not a Value Buying Opportunity

<ul>
<li>We see 37 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 25 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September.</li>
<li>We expect 32 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 24 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 37 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 25 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September.
We expect 32 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 24 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

Hong Kong

EC Healthcare operates as a non-hospital medical service provider. The Company principally engages in the provision of medical, aesthetic medical, beauty and wellness services, and sale of skincare, healthcare and beauty products. EC Healthcare conducts businesses in Hong Kong, Macau, and Mainland China.

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EC Healthcare (2138 HK)

UMP Healthcare (722 HK): Deep Value Turnaround in FY25

We preview the FY24 earnings of UMP Healthcare (722 HK) as the company embarks on a turnaround of its business, trading at 12x FY24 PE with 75% of...

Sameer Taneja

Perfect Medical Management FY23 Concall: Highlights Bright Outlook for FY24, Aggressive Expansion

Highlights of our concall with Perfect Medical trading at a 10.8x FY24e PE valuation. Company is embarking on a expansion plan to increase centers...

Sameer Taneja

HSCI Index Rebalance: 38 Adds, 29 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

There are 38 adds and 29 deletes for the HSCI at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 518. There will be a lot of...

Brian Freitas