Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A rare pure-play listing. EcoCeres, a Bain-backed Hong Kong producer of sustainable aviation fuel, targets a ~US$1bn IPO by end-2026, in a market created by law.</li>
<li>It lists near a margin peak. The 2026 oil shock inflated SAF profits; in 2024, oversupply more than halved Neste's margins. Value it on mid-cycle earnings, not the windfall.</li>
<li>Price discipline matters. Law-mandated green sectors (solar, wind, renewable fuels) trade at 6–12x EV/EBITDA. The reported US$5bn valuation implies ~14x. Engage below US$3.5bn; pass above US$5bn.</li>
</ul>


A rare pure-play listing. EcoCeres, a Bain-backed Hong Kong producer of sustainable aviation fuel, targets a ~US$1bn IPO by end-2026, in a market created by law.
It lists near a margin peak. The 2026 oil shock inflated SAF profits; in 2024, oversupply more than halved Neste's margins. Value it on mid-cycle earnings, not the windfall.
Price discipline matters. Law-mandated green sectors (solar, wind, renewable fuels) trade at 6–12x EV/EBITDA. The reported US$5bn valuation implies ~14x. Engage below US$3.5bn; pass above US$5bn.


EcoCeres Pre-IPO Note: The Price of Decarbonising Aviation

Hong Kong

The company manufactures renewable fuels and chemicals to support decarbonization and circular economy initiatives. It utilizes biomass conversion and waste-to-value technologies to produce sustainable materials and fuels for industrial applications. The firm focuses on enhancing energy security and accelerating the transition to a low-carbon economy.

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EcoCeres (ECOCERES HK)

EcoCeres Pre-IPO Note: The Price of Decarbonising Aviation

EcoCeres has scale and a regulatory tailwind, but SAF mandates guarantee demand—not margins. Value the IPO on mid-cycle earnings, not peak economics.

Mo Aziz

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