Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Equity Bottom-Up

Edelweiss Financial Services / Equity Bottom-Up

While Edelweiss has faced significant provisioning led losses over the past one and half years, we believe the worst is behind us now. Edelweiss had significantly cleaned up its book in Q4FY20 and in the most recent reported quarter i.e. Q4FY21, it further took significant provisioning to account for adverse impact of COVID second wave and any additional stress. Going forward, we expect Edelweiss' asset quality to improve largely assisted by significant clean-up in the past few quarters. Additionally, the residential real estate market seems to have bottomed out with liquidity coming back to the market and demand turning favorable post COVID. In line with our original thesis, Edelweiss has also significantly accelerated its shift towards fee based business model over the past couple of years. All in all, we expect significant re-rating in the stock over the next 1 to 2 years.

While Edelweiss has faced significant provisioning led losses over the past one and half years, we believe the worst is behind us now. Edelweiss had significantly cleaned up its book in Q4FY20 and in the most recent reported quarter i.e. Q4FY21, it further took significant provisioning to account for adverse impact of COVID second wave and any additional stress. Going forward, we expect Edelweiss' asset quality to improve largely assisted by significant clean-up in the past few quarters. Additionally, the residential real estate market seems to have bottomed out with liquidity coming back to the market and demand turning favorable post COVID. In line with our original thesis, Edelweiss has also significantly accelerated its shift towards fee based business model over the past couple of years. All in all, we expect significant re-rating in the stock over the next 1 to 2 years.

We have highlighted across our prior insights that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/edelweiss-financial-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15015:1" rel="noopener">Edelweiss Financial Services (EDEL IN)</a> is shifting its credit business towards a co-lending model as part of its broader shift to a fee based business model from a fund based business model.
In the upcoming reform agenda for PSBs under EASE 4.0 program, there is likely to be a push towards co-lending as per <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/banking/finance/banking/psbs-to-push-co-lending-with-nbfcs-digital-agri-financing/articleshow/82021101.cms" target="_blank" rel="noopener">media sources</a>. Edelweiss, who has already partnered with various government-owned banks (public-sector banks or PSBs), is well-positioned to benefit from this.

We have highlighted across our prior insights that Edelweiss Financial Services (EDEL IN) is shifting its credit business towards a co-lending model as part of its broader shift to a fee based business model from a fund based business model.
In the upcoming reform agenda for PSBs under EASE 4.0 program, there is likely to be a push towards co-lending as per media sources. Edelweiss, who has already partnered with various government-owned banks (public-sector banks or PSBs), is well-positioned to benefit from this.

Edelweiss: A Beneficiary of Potentially Increased Adoption of Co-Lending by PSBs

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/edelweiss-financial-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15015:1" rel="noopener">Edelweiss Financial Services (EDEL IN)</a> reported Q3FY21 earnings (PAT) of INR 117cr ex of Insurance business and BMU &amp; Corporate unit and pre minority interest. With recovery in the economy and in the residential real estate market, Edelweiss' credit business is turning around. The bad assets for the most part have been cleaned up and provided for. Wealth management, capital markets, ARC and asset management businesses continue to remain robust and provide strong fee-based income. Fee income has come back to pre-COVID levels at around INR 480cr per quarter. Insurance business is well funded to take losses for the next few years, as it scales up. BMU &amp; Corporate Unit (BMU: Balance Sheet Management Unit) was affected by negative carry from excess liquidity and one-off restructuring charges relating to consolidation at the holding company level into a Core Investment Company (CIC). Capital adequacy for Edelweiss remains robust at 23%+ levels across its credit businesses. Leverage at the group level is low at 3x and post the completion of the PAG deal, the balance sheet should only strengthen further.
Below we discuss key growth and profitability levers for Edelweiss going forward.

Edelweiss Financial Services (EDEL IN) reported Q3FY21 earnings (PAT) of INR 117cr ex of Insurance business and BMU &amp; Corporate unit and pre minority interest. With recovery in the economy and in the residential real estate market, Edelweiss' credit business is turning around. The bad assets for the most part have been cleaned up and provided for. Wealth management, capital markets, ARC and asset management businesses continue to remain robust and provide strong fee-based income. Fee income has come back to pre-COVID levels at around INR 480cr per quarter. Insurance business is well funded to take losses for the next few years, as it scales up. BMU &amp; Corporate Unit (BMU: Balance Sheet Management Unit) was affected by negative carry from excess liquidity and one-off restructuring charges relating to consolidation at the holding company level into a Core Investment Company (CIC). Capital adequacy for Edelweiss remains robust at 23%+ levels across its credit businesses. Leverage at the group level is low at 3x and post the completion of the PAG deal, the balance sheet should only strengthen further.
Below we discuss key growth and profitability levers for Edelweiss going forward.

Edelweiss: Very Well Capitalized and On the Path to Profitability and Growth

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

*Negative Operating Performance: Edelweiss Financial Services (EDEL.IN) [Edelweiss] reported yet another consolidated loss of INR 630.0 mn (post minority interest) for FY 3Q21 – declining INR 69.0 mn (12.3%) linked quarter. Excluding the gain on sale of securities, Edelweiss’ core operating results were actually frightening at a loss of INR 4.9 bn – down a further INR 106 mn (2.2%) over the same period. Nothing appears to be going right for Edelweiss, with management now beginning to discuss liquidity metrics; and *Wheels Falling Off The Bus: We are significantly troubled by the enormity of the breakdown in credit, as net new NPLs, by our calculation, increased INR 2.7 bn linked quarter for an annualized rate of growth of 106% - far and away the worst showing of any Indian financial under our coverage. Given the net new NPL increase, we find that loss reserves are light to tune of INR 15.7 bn or 2.3x stated equity of INR 6.9 bn at FY 3Q21.  Negative operating losses coupled with potentially challenged liquidity, and the poor credit cushion could invite regulatory intervention.

*Negative Operating Performance: Edelweiss Financial Services (EDEL.IN) [Edelweiss] reported yet another consolidated loss of INR 630.0 mn (post minority interest) for FY 3Q21 – declining INR 69.0 mn (12.3%) linked quarter. Excluding the gain on sale of securities, Edelweiss’ core operating results were actually frightening at a loss of INR 4.9 bn – down a further INR 106 mn (2.2%) over the same period. Nothing appears to be going right for Edelweiss, with management now beginning to discuss liquidity metrics; and *Wheels Falling Off The Bus: We are significantly troubled by the enormity of the breakdown in credit, as net new NPLs, by our calculation, increased INR 2.7 bn linked quarter for an annualized rate of growth of 106% - far and away the worst showing of any Indian financial under our coverage. Given the net new NPL increase, we find that loss reserves are light to tune of INR 15.7 bn or 2.3x stated equity of INR 6.9 bn at FY 3Q21.  Negative operating losses coupled with potentially challenged liquidity, and the poor credit cushion could invite regulatory intervention. 

Edelweiss Financial Services – The Whole Package

*Dreadful Bottom-line Continues: Edelweiss Financial Services (EDEL.IN) [Edelweiss] reported a consolidated loss of INR 2.6 bn (post minority interest) for FY 1Q21. While still loss making, losses were reduced INR 20.2 bn (88.4%) linked quarter reflecting several factors: a) impairment charges declined INR 22.9 bn (89.8%) as no COVID-19 related provisions were taken during FY 1Q21; b) expense declines of INR 1.8 bn (16.8%) pushing Edelweiss to be just modestly operationally profitable as its C/I ratio was reduced from 133.2% to 98.0%; and c) an INR 1.1 bn (13.2%) improvement in net revenues driven by lower interest costs, possibly due to a reduction in overall debt and lower cost of funds; *Restructure Continues: Edelweiss continues to take various steps to restructure its overall business: a) de-leveraging the  credit entities; , b) debt repayment; and c) asset/stake disposals; and *Awful Disclosure: Edelweiss is still required under the law to provide adequate quarterly financial disclosures. This must be improved  - especially if the Company is actually a going concern.

*Dreadful Bottom-line Continues: Edelweiss Financial Services (EDEL.IN) [Edelweiss] reported a consolidated loss of INR 2.6 bn (post minority interest) for FY 1Q21. While still loss making, losses were reduced INR 20.2 bn (88.4%) linked quarter reflecting several factors: a) impairment charges declined INR 22.9 bn (89.8%) as no COVID-19 related provisions were taken during FY 1Q21; b) expense declines of INR 1.8 bn (16.8%) pushing Edelweiss to be just modestly operationally profitable as its C/I ratio was reduced from 133.2% to 98.0%; and c) an INR 1.1 bn (13.2%) improvement in net revenues driven by lower interest costs, possibly due to a reduction in overall debt and lower cost of funds; *Restructure Continues: Edelweiss continues to take various steps to restructure its overall business: a) de-leveraging the  credit entities; , b) debt repayment; and c) asset/stake disposals; and *Awful Disclosure: Edelweiss is still required under the law to provide adequate quarterly financial disclosures. This must be improved  - especially if the Company is actually a going concern.   

Edelweiss Financial Services – Better, But Still Bad

India

Edelweiss Financial Services is a diversified Indian financial services conglomerate offering a broad range of products and services, including credit (retail and corporate), asset management (mutual funds and alternative assets), asset reconstruction, and insurance (life and general). The company caters to corporations, institutions, and individuals, providing solutions such as investment banking, wealth management, and advisory services. Headquartered in Mumbai, India, it was founded in 1995.

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Edelweiss Financial Services (EDEL IN)

Edelweiss: The Worst Is Behind Us

We anticipate Edelweiss to report strong Q1FY22 earnings as most of the cleanup in the credit book is behind us. Edelweiss is well capitalized to...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Edelweiss: A Beneficiary of Potentially Increased Adoption of Co-Lending by PSBs

In the upcoming reform agenda for PSBs, there is likely to be a push towards co-lending. Edelweiss, who has already partnered with PSBs and is...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Edelweiss: Very Well Capitalized and On the Path to Profitability and Growth

Edelweiss has had depressed earnings in the past but is poised to benefit from many growth and profitability levers going forward. It is also very...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Edelweiss Financial Services – The Whole Package

EDELWEISS FINANCIAL SERVICES: Edelweiss reported another loss. We are troubled by the enormity of the breakdown in credit, light loss reserves at...

Thomas J. Monaco

Edelweiss Financial Services – Better, But Still Bad

*Dreadful Bottom-line Continues: Edelweiss Financial Services (EDEL.IN) [Edelweiss] reported a consolidated loss of INR 2.6 bn (post minority...

Thomas J. Monaco

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