Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We hosted a conference call with Elan Microelectronics management; We view the company as a Structural Long position for the AI PC upgrade cycle.</li>
<li>From the company's perspective, significant impact from AI PC demand will come but not until 4Q24E or 1H25E. However, supply chain excess inventory improved and prepping for upcycle.</li>
<li>An estimated 90% of AI PC models launched at CES 2024 use Elan's products in their design; Elan well positioned for the upcycle and entrenching its position. Maintain Structural Long.</li>
</ul>


We hosted a conference call with Elan Microelectronics management; We view the company as a Structural Long position for the AI PC upgrade cycle.
From the company's perspective, significant impact from AI PC demand will come but not until 4Q24E or 1H25E. However, supply chain excess inventory improved and prepping for upcycle.
An estimated 90% of AI PC models launched at CES 2024 use Elan's products in their design; Elan well positioned for the upcycle and entrenching its position. Maintain Structural Long.


TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>IDC reported 3Q24 PC shipments declining -2% YoY, Canalys an increase of +1%. Let’s call this flat. If 4Q24 is “average seasonal”, 2024 will reach ~265m, or the pre-Covid range. </li>
<li>No AI fever, no accelerated replacement cycle, for now. If it happens, it will take time, ie compelling AI apps that only run locally and need a new PC.</li>
<li>In Asia, PC vendors: Lenovo, Acer, Asus. Taiwan ODM: Compal, Quanta, Wistron. Semi with high exposure: Novatek, Realtek. </li>
</ul>


IDC reported 3Q24 PC shipments declining -2% YoY, Canalys an increase of +1%. Let’s call this flat. If 4Q24 is “average seasonal”, 2024 will reach ~265m, or the pre-Covid range. 
No AI fever, no accelerated replacement cycle, for now. If it happens, it will take time, ie compelling AI apps that only run locally and need a new PC.
In Asia, PC vendors: Lenovo, Acer, Asus. Taiwan ODM: Compal, Quanta, Wistron. Semi with high exposure: Novatek, Realtek. 


3Q24 PC Shipments Are Flat YoY. Lenovo, Acer, Asus. Compal, Quanta, Wistron.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Tech Plays Have Soared Since TSMC's Strong Outlook, and SK Hynix Reported a Return to Op Profit</li>
<li>Memory Monitor: Microsoft Copilot Will Supercharge Demand for DRAM; SK Hynix, Nanya Tech, Micron</li>
<li>Key Upcoming Events -- Intel, Microsoft, Mediatek, UMC Results Ahead</li>
</ul>


Taiwan Tech Plays Have Soared Since TSMC's Strong Outlook, and SK Hynix Reported a Return to Op Profit
Memory Monitor: Microsoft Copilot Will Supercharge Demand for DRAM; SK Hynix, Nanya Tech, Micron
Key Upcoming Events -- Intel, Microsoft, Mediatek, UMC Results Ahead


Taiwan Tech Weekly: SK Hynix Boosts Optimism for Memory; Intel, Mediatek, Microsoft, UMC Key Events

<ul>
<li>Intel's results last week beat expectations by a wide margin, with margins recovering better than expected by the Street and guided to keep improving through 4Q23E.</li>
<li>New Meteor Lake chips for PCs, branded as 'Intel Core Ultra' will officially launch December 14th and are expected to drive demand for new AI-optimized PCs in 2024E.</li>
<li>Intel said that the PC industry completed its inventory digestion in 1H23, drove sequential demand growth in 3Q23, and this is expected to continue into 4Q23E.</li>
</ul>


Intel's results last week beat expectations by a wide margin, with margins recovering better than expected by the Street and guided to keep improving through 4Q23E.
New Meteor Lake chips for PCs, branded as 'Intel Core Ultra' will officially launch December 14th and are expected to drive demand for new AI-optimized PCs in 2024E.
Intel said that the PC industry completed its inventory digestion in 1H23, drove sequential demand growth in 3Q23, and this is expected to continue into 4Q23E.


PC Monitor: Inventories Healthy & Intel Expects Over 100 Million AI PCs In Two Years

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Four stock remains, 10 stocks added into portfolio</li>
<li>Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 187% versus the MSCI Asia ex Japan of 78%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology
Portfolio changes: Four stock remains, 10 stocks added into portfolio
Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 187% versus the MSCI Asia ex Japan of 78%


Taiwan

Elan Microelectronics Corp. designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs).  The Company's product lines include telecom line, consumer electronic line, microcontroller line, personal computer (PC) peripheral line, and memory line.

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Elan Microelectronics (2458 TT)

TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing

Elan Microelectronics is poised for growth in the AI PC upgrade cycle, with a strong position in the market and potential impact expected in late...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

3Q24 PC Shipments Are Flat YoY. Lenovo, Acer, Asus. Compal, Quanta, Wistron.

3Q24 PC shipments are flat YoY. The great recovery or AI replacement cycle aren’t happening (for now). IDC reported 3Q24 PC shipments declining -2%...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: SK Hynix Boosts Optimism for Memory; Intel, Mediatek, Microsoft, UMC Key Events

A strong outlook from TSMC and SK Hynix's return to op profit have boosted Taiwan tech; Why Microsoft's Copilot will accelerate demand for DRAM;...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

PC Monitor: Inventories Healthy & Intel Expects Over 100 Million AI PCs In Two Years

New Meteor Lake chips launching in December are anticipated to boost demand for AI-optimized PCs in 2024. The PC industry's inventory digestion is...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 45

We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology. Portfolio changes: Four stock remains, 10 stocks added.

A. Stotz Investment Research

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TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing

​Elan Microelectronics is poised for growth in the AI PC upgrade cycle, with a strong position in the market and potential impact expected in late...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

3Q24 PC Shipments Are Flat YoY. Lenovo, Acer, Asus. Compal, Quanta, Wistron.

3Q24 PC shipments are flat YoY. The great recovery or AI replacement cycle aren’t happening (for now). IDC reported 3Q24 PC shipments declining -2%...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: SK Hynix Boosts Optimism for Memory; Intel, Mediatek, Microsoft, UMC Key Events

​A strong outlook from TSMC and SK Hynix's return to op profit have boosted Taiwan tech; Why Microsoft's Copilot will accelerate demand for DRAM;...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

PC Monitor: Inventories Healthy & Intel Expects Over 100 Million AI PCs In Two Years

New Meteor Lake chips launching in December are anticipated to boost demand for AI-optimized PCs in 2024. The PC industry's inventory digestion is...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 45

We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology. Portfolio changes: Four stock remains, 10 stocks added.

A. Stotz Investment Research

Elan Microelectronics is poised for growth in the AI PC upgrade cycle, with a strong position in the market and potential impact expected in late...

A strong outlook from TSMC and SK Hynix's return to op profit have boosted Taiwan tech; Why Microsoft's Copilot will accelerate demand for DRAM;...