Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We hosted a conference call with Elan Microelectronics management; We view the company as a Structural Long position for the AI PC upgrade cycle.</li>
<li>From the company's perspective, significant impact from AI PC demand will come but not until 4Q24E or 1H25E. However, supply chain excess inventory improved and prepping for upcycle.</li>
<li>An estimated 90% of AI PC models launched at CES 2024 use Elan's products in their design; Elan well positioned for the upcycle and entrenching its position. Maintain Structural Long.</li>
</ul>


We hosted a conference call with Elan Microelectronics management; We view the company as a Structural Long position for the AI PC upgrade cycle.
From the company's perspective, significant impact from AI PC demand will come but not until 4Q24E or 1H25E. However, supply chain excess inventory improved and prepping for upcycle.
An estimated 90% of AI PC models launched at CES 2024 use Elan's products in their design; Elan well positioned for the upcycle and entrenching its position. Maintain Structural Long.


TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing

<ul>
<li>Intel's upcoming Meteor Lake family of chips will include a new specific component specifically for running AI processes locally on PCs.</li>
<li>Meteor Lake will enable mass market adoption of AI PCs by providing a platform for developers to create more advanced AI PC applications than are currently possible.</li>
<li>Meteor Lake's launch could start by end-October. Intel's Innovation conference September 19-20th will likely add visibility. Intel's potential supports a Long thesis for Taiwan's PC supply chain.</li>
</ul>


Intel's upcoming Meteor Lake family of chips will include a new specific component specifically for running AI processes locally on PCs.
Meteor Lake will enable mass market adoption of AI PCs by providing a platform for developers to create more advanced AI PC applications than are currently possible.
Meteor Lake's launch could start by end-October. Intel's Innovation conference September 19-20th will likely add visibility. Intel's potential supports a Long thesis for Taiwan's PC supply chain.


Intel's Meteor Lake Chips Could Make It 'Cool' Again; Will Enable Mass Market Adoption of AI PCs

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elan-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19789:1" rel="noopener">Elan Microelectronics (2458 TT)</a> will be removed from the FTSE Taiwan Mid Cap 100 Index on September 16th. As a result, it could see 12+ days of volume of selling.</li>
<li>We had a call with management. Guidance and product performance implies the company has relative strength vs. its end-market demand weakness.</li>
<li>The stock has already underperformed notebook-related peers by a wide margin, hence a further underperformance caused by passive selling could open up a rebound opportunity,</li>
</ul>



Elan Microelectronics (2458 TT) will be removed from the FTSE Taiwan Mid Cap 100 Index on September 16th. As a result, it could see 12+ days of volume of selling.
We had a call with management. Guidance and product performance implies the company has relative strength vs. its end-market demand weakness.
The stock has already underperformed notebook-related peers by a wide margin, hence a further underperformance caused by passive selling could open up a rebound opportunity,


Elan Microelectronics Event: Index Removal Selling Could Exacerbate Price Divergence

<ul>
<li>Elan Micro reported September revenue on October 7th; 3Q24 revenue has come in at the high end of management's guidance.</li>
<li>Management reiterated that they expect AI PCs to drive a growth acceleration for the PC industry starting in 4Q24E/1Q25E.</li>
<li>Reiterate Structural Long rating for Elan Micro; the company remains well positioned to benefit from an AI PC-driven PC upgrade cycle.</li>
</ul>


Elan Micro reported September revenue on October 7th; 3Q24 revenue has come in at the high end of management's guidance.
Management reiterated that they expect AI PCs to drive a growth acceleration for the PC industry starting in 4Q24E/1Q25E.
Reiterate Structural Long rating for Elan Micro; the company remains well positioned to benefit from an AI PC-driven PC upgrade cycle.


PC Monitor: Elan Sales Hit Guidance High End; Expects Significant PC Industry Growth 4Q24E/1Q25E

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>IDC reported 3Q24 PC shipments declining -2% YoY, Canalys an increase of +1%. Let’s call this flat. If 4Q24 is “average seasonal”, 2024 will reach ~265m, or the pre-Covid range. </li>
<li>No AI fever, no accelerated replacement cycle, for now. If it happens, it will take time, ie compelling AI apps that only run locally and need a new PC.</li>
<li>In Asia, PC vendors: Lenovo, Acer, Asus. Taiwan ODM: Compal, Quanta, Wistron. Semi with high exposure: Novatek, Realtek. </li>
</ul>


IDC reported 3Q24 PC shipments declining -2% YoY, Canalys an increase of +1%. Let’s call this flat. If 4Q24 is “average seasonal”, 2024 will reach ~265m, or the pre-Covid range. 
No AI fever, no accelerated replacement cycle, for now. If it happens, it will take time, ie compelling AI apps that only run locally and need a new PC.
In Asia, PC vendors: Lenovo, Acer, Asus. Taiwan ODM: Compal, Quanta, Wistron. Semi with high exposure: Novatek, Realtek. 


3Q24 PC Shipments Are Flat YoY. Lenovo, Acer, Asus. Compal, Quanta, Wistron.

Taiwan

Elan Microelectronics Corp. designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs).  The Company's product lines include telecom line, consumer electronic line, microcontroller line, personal computer (PC) peripheral line, and memory line.

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Elan Microelectronics (2458 TT)

TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing

Elan Microelectronics is poised for growth in the AI PC upgrade cycle, with a strong position in the market and potential impact expected in late...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel's Meteor Lake Chips Could Make It 'Cool' Again; Will Enable Mass Market Adoption of AI PCs

Intel's Meteor Lake chip family will enable mass adoption of AI PCs and the company could become widely admired by the market again. This also...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Elan Microelectronics Event: Index Removal Selling Could Exacerbate Price Divergence

We had a call with management. Guidance and product performance implies the company has relative strength vs. its end-market demand weakness.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

PC Monitor: Elan Sales Hit Guidance High End; Expects Significant PC Industry Growth 4Q24E/1Q25E

Elan Micro reports strong 3Q24 revenue, expects growth acceleration in PC industry driven by AI PCs. Structural Long rating maintained.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

3Q24 PC Shipments Are Flat YoY. Lenovo, Acer, Asus. Compal, Quanta, Wistron.

3Q24 PC shipments are flat YoY. The great recovery or AI replacement cycle aren’t happening (for now). IDC reported 3Q24 PC shipments declining -2%...

Nicolas Baratte

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing

​Elan Microelectronics is poised for growth in the AI PC upgrade cycle, with a strong position in the market and potential impact expected in late...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel's Meteor Lake Chips Could Make It 'Cool' Again; Will Enable Mass Market Adoption of AI PCs

Intel's Meteor Lake chip family will enable mass adoption of AI PCs and the company could become widely admired by the market again. This also...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Elan Microelectronics Event: Index Removal Selling Could Exacerbate Price Divergence

We had a call with management. Guidance and product performance implies the company has relative strength vs. its end-market demand weakness.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

PC Monitor: Elan Sales Hit Guidance High End; Expects Significant PC Industry Growth 4Q24E/1Q25E

​Elan Micro reports strong 3Q24 revenue, expects growth acceleration in PC industry driven by AI PCs. Structural Long rating maintained.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

3Q24 PC Shipments Are Flat YoY. Lenovo, Acer, Asus. Compal, Quanta, Wistron.

3Q24 PC shipments are flat YoY. The great recovery or AI replacement cycle aren’t happening (for now). IDC reported 3Q24 PC shipments declining -2%...

Nicolas Baratte

Elan Microelectronics is poised for growth in the AI PC upgrade cycle, with a strong position in the market and potential impact expected in late...

Elan Micro reports strong 3Q24 revenue, expects growth acceleration in PC industry driven by AI PCs. Structural Long rating maintained.