IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bairong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31486:1" rel="noopener">Bairong (6608 HK)</a> is a leading independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry. It is the largest independent financial big data analytics solutions provider in China with a 9.0% revenue market share in 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.</p><p>Bairong was listed on the HKEx on 31 March 2021 and raised net proceeds of HK$3,759.0 million at HK$31.80 per share. The shares currently trade 62% below their IPO price. Bairong priced its IPO at the market peak and the shares have collapsed in part due to China’s regulatory reset. </p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a> fell 15% on 5 August after a lockup expiry, as early backers headed for the exit amid fears of China’s widening online crackdown. The ongoing regulatory crackdown has alerted investors to the risk of upcoming expiring lockups.  </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Bairong’s pre-IPO investors’ lock-up period expires on 20 September. The cornerstones investors lock-up period expires on 30 September. In this note, we look at the returns of the pre-IPO investors and potential share sales post-lockup expiry.</p></div>

Bairong (6608 HK) is a leading independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry. It is the largest independent financial big data analytics solutions provider in China with a 9.0% revenue market share in 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.Bairong was listed on the HKEx on 31 March 2021 and raised net proceeds of HK$3,759.0 million at HK$31.80 per share. The shares currently trade 62% below their IPO price. Bairong priced its IPO at the market peak and the shares have collapsed in part due to China’s regulatory reset. Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) fell 15% on 5 August after a lockup expiry, as early backers headed for the exit amid fears of China’s widening online crackdown. The ongoing regulatory crackdown has alerted investors to the risk of upcoming expiring lockups.  Bairong’s pre-IPO investors’ lock-up period expires on 20 September. The cornerstones investors lock-up period expires on 30 September. In this note, we look at the returns of the pre-IPO investors and potential share sales post-lockup expiry.

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumo-logic-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29265:1" rel="noopener">Sumo Logic Inc (SUMO US)</a> , the pioneer in new category of software Continuous Intelligence, has announced strong 1Q FY22 financial results and the business continued to recover from COVID-19 pandemic. Sumo Logic shares are still down ~26% YTD while Nasdaq Composite index hit fresh all-time highs. Company made two key strategic acquisitions after IPO: Italian corporation and leader in SOAR capabilities DFLabs and leading VC-backed player in open-source monitoring Sensu, Inc. We see modest revenue growth of ~16% in FY22/FY21 and model revenue of $284M in FY23, translating to YoY revenue growth of 21%.   </p>

Sumo Logic Inc (SUMO US) , the pioneer in new category of software Continuous Intelligence, has announced strong 1Q FY22 financial results and the business continued to recover from COVID-19 pandemic. Sumo Logic shares are still down ~26% YTD while Nasdaq Composite index hit fresh all-time highs. Company made two key strategic acquisitions after IPO: Italian corporation and leader in SOAR capabilities DFLabs and leading VC-backed player in open-source monitoring Sensu, Inc. We see modest revenue growth of ~16% in FY22/FY21 and model revenue of $284M in FY23, translating to YoY revenue growth of 21%.   

Sumo Logic: Getting Back On Track, Growth Ahead

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bairong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31486:1" rel="noopener">Bairong (1569395D CH)</a> is a leading independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry. Biarong will commence trading on Wednesday, 31 March. Bairong priced its IPO at HK$31.80 and <a href="https://inews.hket.com/article/2920642/%E3%80%90%E6%96%B0%E8%82%A1IPO%E3%80%91%E7%99%BE%E8%9E%8D%E9%9B%B2%E5%89%B56608%E6%9A%97%E7%9B%A4%E6%BD%9B%E6%B0%B4%E3%80%80%E4%B8%80%E6%89%8B%E5%B8%B3%E9%9D%A2%E8%9D%951400%E5%85%83?mtc=40001&amp;srkw=IPO%E6%9C%80%E5%BF%AB%E6%9C%80%E9%BD%8A" target="_blank" rel="noopener">opened around -9% lower</a> at HK$29 in the grey market. The poor grey market performance is perhaps unsurprisingly in light of the choppy market conditions and declining market sentiment on Chinese tech names. </p></div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bairong-ipo-initiation-creditworthy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49249" rel="noopener">Bairong IPO Initiation: Creditworthy</a>, we opined that the good 4Q20 revenue growth exit rate points to recovery. We noted that Bairong has the potential to combine solid growth with profitability and cash generation. We concluded that Bairong is worth a closer look. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bairong-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49418" rel="noopener">Bairong IPO: Valuation Insights</a>, we noted that the IPO price range is reasonable.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target of HK$35.79 per share. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price remains reasonable and the grey market factors in conservative market share and margin forecasts. For investors with a longer-term horizon, we think that the grey market price represents good value. </p></div></div></div>

Bairong (1569395D CH) is a leading independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry. Biarong will commence trading on Wednesday, 31 March. Bairong priced its IPO at HK$31.80 and opened around -9% lower at HK$29 in the grey market. The poor grey market performance is perhaps unsurprisingly in light of the choppy market conditions and declining market sentiment on Chinese tech names. In Bairong IPO Initiation: Creditworthy, we opined that the good 4Q20 revenue growth exit rate points to recovery. We noted that Bairong has the potential to combine solid growth with profitability and cash generation. We concluded that Bairong is worth a closer look. In Bairong IPO: Valuation Insights, we noted that the IPO price range is reasonable.Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target of HK$35.79 per share. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price remains reasonable and the grey market factors in conservative market share and margin forecasts. For investors with a longer-term horizon, we think that the grey market price represents good value. 

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumo-logic-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29265:1" rel="noopener">Sumo Logic Inc (SUMO US)</a>  shares underperformed the Nasdaq Composite and fell ~31% year to date. Shares of key competitors <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/splunk-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12849:1" rel="noopener">Splunk Inc (SPLK US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elastic-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27526:1" rel="noopener">Elastic NV (ESTC US)</a>  also dropped ~21% and ~24% YTD, respectively. Rising Treasury bond yields across the board and weak revenue guidance for FY’22 announced by Sumo Logic drove <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumo-logic-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29265:1" rel="noopener">Sumo Logic Inc (SUMO US)</a> stock price below IPO price of $22 per share. In our insight we will focus on major bullish catalysts for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumo-logic-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29265:1" rel="noopener">Sumo Logic Inc (SUMO US)</a>  stock and set a new 12-month price target.</p>

Sumo Logic Inc (SUMO US)  shares underperformed the Nasdaq Composite and fell ~31% year to date. Shares of key competitors Splunk Inc (SPLK US) and Elastic NV (ESTC US)  also dropped ~21% and ~24% YTD, respectively. Rising Treasury bond yields across the board and weak revenue guidance for FY’22 announced by Sumo Logic drove Sumo Logic Inc (SUMO US) stock price below IPO price of $22 per share. In our insight we will focus on major bullish catalysts for Sumo Logic Inc (SUMO US)  stock and set a new 12-month price target.

Sumo Logic. A Turning Point May Be Reached In 2H 2021

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bairong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31486:1" rel="noopener">Bairong (1569395D CH)</a> is a leading independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry. It is the largest independent financial big data analytics solutions provider in China with a 9.0% revenue market share in 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. </p></div><div><p>At the proposed IPO price range of HK$26.50-31.80 per share, Bairong will have a market cap of HK$13,125.2-15,750.2 million ($1.7-2.0 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are HK$3,440.7 million ($443 million). Three cornerstone investors will purchase $220 million worth of the offer shares (47.29% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price range). The cornerstone investors are Cederberg (a London-based fund manager), China Structural Reform Fund and Franchise Fund. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bairong-ipo-initiation-creditworthy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49249" rel="noopener">Bairong IPO Initiation: Creditworthy</a>, we opined that the good 4Q20 revenue growth exit rate points to recovery. We noted that Bairong has the potential to combine solid growth with profitability and cash generation. We concluded that Bairong is worth a closer look. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive. Overall, we would participate in the IPO. </p></div></div></div>

Bairong (1569395D CH) is a leading independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry. It is the largest independent financial big data analytics solutions provider in China with a 9.0% revenue market share in 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. At the proposed IPO price range of HK$26.50-31.80 per share, Bairong will have a market cap of HK$13,125.2-15,750.2 million ($1.7-2.0 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are HK$3,440.7 million ($443 million). Three cornerstone investors will purchase $220 million worth of the offer shares (47.29% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price range). The cornerstone investors are Cederberg (a London-based fund manager), China Structural Reform Fund and Franchise Fund. In Bairong IPO Initiation: Creditworthy, we opined that the good 4Q20 revenue growth exit rate points to recovery. We noted that Bairong has the potential to combine solid growth with profitability and cash generation. We concluded that Bairong is worth a closer look. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive. Overall, we would participate in the IPO. 

United States

Elastic N.V. provides information technology and data analysis services. The Company offers monitoring, security analysis, enterprise search, cloud computing, and open source application performance monitoring solutions. Elastic serves customers in the United States.

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Elastic NV (ESTC US)

Bairong: Upcoming Lock-Up Expiry

Bairong’s pre-IPO investors’ lock-up period expires on 20 September. In this note, we look at the returns of the pre-IPO investors and potential...

Arun George

Sumo Logic: Getting Back On Track, Growth Ahead

We reaffirm our 12-month price target of $30 on the shares of Sumo Logic and see further upside potential, driven by accelerated rate of new...

Andrei Zakharov

Bairong IPO: Trading Debut

Bairong priced its IPO at HK$31.80 and opened around -9% lower at HK$29 in the grey market. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the grey market...

Arun George

Sumo Logic. A Turning Point May Be Reached In 2H 2021

Sumo Logic valuations look attractive and we expect a relief rally into the area of $25-$30 per share as tech stocks selloff may be close to an end

Andrei Zakharov

Bairong IPO: Valuation Insights

Bairong has launched its IPO to raise net proceeds of $443m at the mid-point of the IPO price range of HK$26.50-31.80 per share. Our valuation...

Arun George

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