Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-life-assurance-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16237:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Life Assurance (BLA)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmt-network-services-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8581:1" rel="noopener">JMT Network Services (JMT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jaymart-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12053:1" rel="noopener">Jaymart (JMART)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/com7-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27411:1" rel="noopener">Com7 (COM7)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ratch-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15338:1" rel="noopener">Ratch Group (RATCH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-trang-gloves-thailand-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29141:1" rel="noopener">Sri Trang Gloves (STGT)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET50 INDEX</a>.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.1% and will result in a one-way trade of THB 1,914m. There is little funding flow on the other index stocks.</li>
<li>The inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-life-assurance-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16237:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Life Assurance (BLA TB)</a> is a minor surprise. The deletion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/com7-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27411:1" rel="noopener">Com7 PCL (COM7 TB)</a> is a much bigger surprise.</li>
</ul>



Bangkok Life Assurance (BLA), JMT Network Services (JMT) and Jaymart (JMART) will replace Com7 (COM7), Ratch Group (RATCH) and Sri Trang Gloves (STGT) in the SET50 INDEX.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.1% and will result in a one-way trade of THB 1,914m. There is little funding flow on the other index stocks.
The inclusion of Bangkok Life Assurance (BLA TB) is a minor surprise. The deletion of Com7 PCL (COM7 TB) is a much bigger surprise.


SET50 Index Rebalance: BLA, JMT, JMART Added; COM7, RATCH, STGT Out

<ul>
<li>The market cap and liquidity review period for the June rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> ended yesterday.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmt-network-services-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8581:1" rel="noopener">JMT Network Services (JMT TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jaymart-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12053:1" rel="noopener">Jaymart PCL (JMART TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-trang-gloves-thailand-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29141:1" rel="noopener">Sri Trang Gloves (STGT TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ratch-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15338:1" rel="noopener">Ratch Group PCL (RATCH TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irpc-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19051:1" rel="noopener">IRPC PCL (IRPC)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asset-world-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28136:1" rel="noopener">Asset World Corporation (AWC TB)</a> could be deleted depending on which levers the index committee tweaks, and that could save <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irpc-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19051:1" rel="noopener">IRPC PCL (IRPC TB)</a> from index deletion.</li>
</ul>


The market cap and liquidity review period for the June rebalance of the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) ended yesterday.

JMT Network Services (JMT TB), Jaymart PCL (JMART TB) and Berli Jucker (BJC TB) could replace Sri Trang Gloves (STGT TB), Ratch Group PCL (RATCH TB) and IRPC PCL (IRPC).

Asset World Corporation (AWC TB) could be deleted depending on which levers the index committee tweaks, and that could save IRPC PCL (IRPC TB) from index deletion.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two High Probability Changes; One Low

<ul>
<li>The market cap review period for the June rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> starts in a couple of weeks.</li>
<li>Using the last close, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmt-network-services-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8581:1" rel="noopener">JMT Network Services (JMT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-life-assurance-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16237:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Life Assurance (BLA)</a> as potential inclusions, replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ratch-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15338:1" rel="noopener">Ratch Group PCL (RATCH TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kce-electronics-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1892:1" rel="noopener">KCE Electronics PCL (KCE TB)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ratch-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15338:1" rel="noopener">Ratch Group PCL</a> is the lowest ranked index constituent and needs to move 15% higher to avoid deletion. Passive trackers will need to sell nearly 4 days of ADV.</li>
</ul>


The market cap review period for the June rebalance of the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) starts in a couple of weeks.
Using the last close, we see JMT Network Services (JMT) and Bangkok Life Assurance (BLA) as potential inclusions, replacing Ratch Group PCL (RATCH TB) and KCE Electronics PCL (KCE TB).

Ratch Group PCL is the lowest ranked index constituent and needs to move 15% higher to avoid deletion. Passive trackers will need to sell nearly 4 days of ADV.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview (June): Two Changes, Maybe Three

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

A decision by the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) on the <a href="http://glow.listedcompany.com/newsroom/200620180917080902E.pdf" target="_blank">acquisition of a 69.11% stake</a> in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13330" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13330:1">Glow Energy Pcl (GLOW TB)</a> by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22767" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22767:1">Global Power Synergy Company Ltd (GPSC TB)</a> is expected to be finalised next month. The remaining pre-condition to the agreement, the approval by GPSC shareholders, was <a href="http://gpsc.listedcompany.com/newsroom/240820181839220724E.pdf" target="_blank">received</a> on the 24 Aug 2018.
Although the Glow-GPSC market share would be &lt;10% on a national level, the key issue raised is the contention the transaction would give GPSC a monopoly on power purchase agreements in Map Ta Phut, Thailand's largest industrial park.
Yet that assertion appears inflated as Map Ta Phut is just one of Thailand's many industrial parks; small power producers like Glow sell a material amount of power via industrial contracts; while one does not "own" the PPAs, as they are agreements (based on input costs like fuel) between an IPP (or SPP) and EGAT, which in turn is owned by the Ministry of Finance. 
There is a risk this transaction gets knocked back; however, at a gross/annualised spread of 5.1%/21.3%, assuming end-Dec completion, the risk/reward looks attractive here.

A decision by the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) on the acquisition of a 69.11% stake in Glow Energy Pcl (GLOW TB) by Global Power Synergy Company Ltd (GPSC TB) is expected to be finalised next month. The remaining pre-condition to the agreement, the approval by GPSC shareholders, was received on the 24 Aug 2018.
Although the Glow-GPSC market share would be &lt;10% on a national level, the key issue raised is the contention the transaction would give GPSC a monopoly on power purchase agreements in Map Ta Phut, Thailand's largest industrial park.
Yet that assertion appears inflated as Map Ta Phut is just one of Thailand's many industrial parks; small power producers like Glow sell a material amount of power via industrial contracts; while one does not "own" the PPAs, as they are agreements (based on input costs like fuel) between an IPP (or SPP) and EGAT, which in turn is owned by the Ministry of Finance. 
There is a risk this transaction gets knocked back; however, at a gross/annualised spread of 5.1%/21.3%, assuming end-Dec completion, the risk/reward looks attractive here.

Anti-Trust Should Be A Non-Issue In The GPSC/Glow Deal

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Equity Capital Markets

Summit Power Intl / Equity Capital Markets

Summit Power International, the largest private IPP player in Bangladesh, is seeking to raise USD200 million to list in Singapore. In this insight, we will explore the following topics:<ul><li>What does the company do? What assets does it operate?</li><li>What is the landscape of Bangladesh power sector? Who are the players? Why are PPA contracts attractive?</li><li>What are the understated risks of the listing?</li><li>How does the company compare to its peers in financial metrics?</li><li>Where is the fair value of the company? Why is it tricky to put a fair value on the company?</li><li>How does the deal score in our ECM Framework? </li></ul>

Summit Power International, the largest private IPP player in Bangladesh, is seeking to raise USD200 million to list in Singapore. In this insight, we will explore the following topics:What does the company do? What assets does it operate?What is the landscape of Bangladesh power sector? Who are the players? Why are PPA contracts attractive?What are the understated risks of the listing?How does the company compare to its peers in financial metrics?Where is the fair value of the company? Why is it tricky to put a fair value on the company?How does the deal score in our ECM Framework? 

Summit Power Intl IPO: Visible Pipeline but Tricky Valuation for the Frontier Listing

Thailand

Electricity Generating Public Company Limited (EGCO Group) is an independent power producer and energy-related business operator. It generates electricity from various fuel sources, including fossil fuels and renewable energy, and provides maintenance, engineering, and construction services for power plants and other industries. The company is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was founded on May 12, 1992.

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Electricity Generating (EGCO TB)

SET50 Index Rebalance: BLA, JMT, JMART Added; COM7, RATCH, STGT Out

BLA, JMT & JMART replace COM7, RATCH & STGT in the SET50 Idx after the close on 30 June. The inclusion of BLA is a small surprise, while the...

Brian Freitas

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two High Probability Changes; One Low

We see 2 high probability changes and 1 low probability change at the June review of the SET50 Index. JMT, JMART & BJC could replace STGT, RATCH &...

Brian Freitas

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview (June): Two Changes, Maybe Three

JMT and BLA could replace RATCH and KCE in the SET50 index at the June rebalance. There could be an adhoc change if the DTAC/TRUE merger is...

Brian Freitas

Anti-Trust Should Be A Non-Issue In The GPSC/Glow Deal

A decision by the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) on the acquisition of a 69.11% stake in Glow Energy Pcl (GLOW TB) by Global Power Synergy...

David Blennerhassett

Summit Power Intl IPO: Visible Pipeline but Tricky Valuation for the Frontier Listing

Summit Power International, the largest private IPP player in Bangladesh, is seeking to raise USD200 million to list in Singapore. In this insight,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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