Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-medicine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14128:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH)</a> and Merck entered into an exclusive license agreement for HRS-5346, an investigational oral small-molecule drug. The collaboration positions Merck to challenge two other pharma giants.</li>
<li>Hengrui has granted Merck exclusive rights to develop, manufacture, and commercialize HRS-5346 worldwide for an upfront payment of $200M. Hengrui is also eligible to receive milestone payments up to $1.77B.</li>
<li>Hengrui reported strong 19% YoY revenue growth during 9MFY25 to RMB 20B, while profits rose 6% YoY to RMB 5B. The company will report full-year 2024 result on March 31.</li>
</ul>



Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) and Merck entered into an exclusive license agreement for HRS-5346, an investigational oral small-molecule drug. The collaboration positions Merck to challenge two other pharma giants.
Hengrui has granted Merck exclusive rights to develop, manufacture, and commercialize HRS-5346 worldwide for an upfront payment of $200M. Hengrui is also eligible to receive milestone payments up to $1.77B.
Hengrui reported strong 19% YoY revenue growth during 9MFY25 to RMB 20B, while profits rose 6% YoY to RMB 5B. The company will report full-year 2024 result on March 31.


Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) Signs Deal With Merck For a New Class of Cardiovascular Drug

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Given new policy recommendations, it is only a matter of time before HPV vaccination is included in the national immunization program, which is detrimental to HPV vaccine companies.</li>
<li>MNCs have seen a inflection point in performance growth in 2024 in China. Although VBP/NRDL negotiation are negative factors, is it also due to any consideration to withdraw from China?</li>
<li>Fosun Pharma has agreed to sell its entire stake in United Family Healthcare to Calcite Gem Investments Group for US$124.1 million. We shared our views about the deal.</li>
</ul>


Given new policy recommendations, it is only a matter of time before HPV vaccination is included in the national immunization program, which is detrimental to HPV vaccine companies.
MNCs have seen a inflection point in performance growth in 2024 in China. Although VBP/NRDL negotiation are negative factors, is it also due to any consideration to withdraw from China?
Fosun Pharma has agreed to sell its entire stake in United Family Healthcare to Calcite Gem Investments Group for US$124.1 million. We shared our views about the deal.


China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.23)-Fosun Pharma Sells United Family Healthcare, MNC's Inflection Point

<ul>
<li>In 9MFY25, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eisai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21001:1" rel="noopener">Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP)</a> reported 9% YoY growth in revenue, driven by 3Ls. Operating profit rose 48% YoY and net profit climbed 56% YoY to ¥45.5B.</li>
<li>Eisai kept its FY25 total revenue guidance unchanged, implying a weaker Q4FY25 with a probable loss on the cards.</li>
<li>Lenvima growth stabilizes on indication expansion, Leqembi awaiting approvals and untangling safety concerns in a bid to reach its full market potential.</li>
</ul>


In 9MFY25, Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) reported 9% YoY growth in revenue, driven by 3Ls. Operating profit rose 48% YoY and net profit climbed 56% YoY to ¥45.5B.
Eisai kept its FY25 total revenue guidance unchanged, implying a weaker Q4FY25 with a probable loss on the cards.
Lenvima growth stabilizes on indication expansion, Leqembi awaiting approvals and untangling safety concerns in a bid to reach its full market potential.


Eisai (4523 JP): 3L Drive 9MFY25 Result; FY25 Guidance Reaffirmed; Leqembi at an Inflection Point

<ul>
<li>In 4Q24, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene (6160 HK)</a> reported U.S. sales of Brukinsa of $616M, up 97% YoY and 22% QoQ, with 60%+ of demand growth coming from expanded use in CLL. </li>
<li>Brukinsa holds 25% market share in new patient starts in the U.S. in CLL, followed by Calquence (20%). For the first time, Brukinsa’s quarterly U.S. revenue outpaced that of Calquence.</li>
<li>Beigene has guided for 2025 revenue of $4.9–5.3B (up 29–39% YoY), driven by Brukinsa’s U.S. leadership position and continued global expansion in both Europe and other markets.</li>
</ul>


In 4Q24, BeiGene (6160 HK) reported U.S. sales of Brukinsa of $616M, up 97% YoY and 22% QoQ, with 60%+ of demand growth coming from expanded use in CLL. 
Brukinsa holds 25% market share in new patient starts in the U.S. in CLL, followed by Calquence (20%). For the first time, Brukinsa’s quarterly U.S. revenue outpaced that of Calquence.
Beigene has guided for 2025 revenue of $4.9–5.3B (up 29–39% YoY), driven by Brukinsa’s U.S. leadership position and continued global expansion in both Europe and other markets.


BeiGene (6160 HK): Brukinsa Outpaces Competitor in 4Q US Sales; Solid Guidance for 2025

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our long-term outlook remains bullish as long as the S&amp;P 500 remains above 5770-5850 and 5600-5670 (worst case), and we are buyers at these levels.</li>
<li>With that said, we see potential for near-term downside based on several developments discussed below.  It likely means at least another 2-4 weeks of consolidation</li>
<li>If SPX remains below 6100 and 6150 resistances, do not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670</li>
</ul>


Our long-term outlook remains bullish as long as the S&amp;P 500 remains above 5770-5850 and 5600-5670 (worst case), and we are buyers at these levels.
With that said, we see potential for near-term downside based on several developments discussed below.  It likely means at least another 2-4 weeks of consolidation
If SPX remains below 6100 and 6150 resistances, do not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670


Near-Term Downside Likely Following False Breakouts; Targeting 5770-5850; Long-Term Still Bullish

United States

Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and sells pharmaceutical products for humans and animals. The Company products are sold in countries around the world. Eli Lilly products include neuroscience, endocrine, anti-infectives, cardiovascular agents, oncology, and animal health products.

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Eli Lilly & (LLY UN)

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) Signs Deal With Merck For a New Class of Cardiovascular Drug

Hengrui and Merck strike exclusive deal for HRS-5346, with upfront payment of $200M and potential milestone payments up to $1.77B. HRS-5346 is...

Tina Banerjee

China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.23)-Fosun Pharma Sells United Family Healthcare, MNC's Inflection Point

National immunization program likely to include HPV vaccination. MNCs in China see an inflection point, potential withdrawal. Fosun Pharma sells...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Eisai (4523 JP): 3L Drive 9MFY25 Result; FY25 Guidance Reaffirmed; Leqembi at an Inflection Point

Eisai sees strong revenue and profit growth in 9MFY25, but Q4FY25 outlook seems weaker with potential loss. Focus will be on addressing safety...

Tina Banerjee

BeiGene (6160 HK): Brukinsa Outpaces Competitor in 4Q US Sales; Solid Guidance for 2025

BeiGene's Brukinsa sees significant growth in U.S. sales, surpassing Calquence for the first time, with 60%+ demand growth from expanded use in...

Tina Banerjee

Near-Term Downside Likely Following False Breakouts; Targeting 5770-5850; Long-Term Still Bullish

Near-Term Downside Likely After False Breakouts $SPX $QQQ; Long-Term Still Bullish; Major Tops on $DXY, 10-Year Treasury Yield. If < 6100 and 6150...

Vermilion Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) Signs Deal With Merck For a New Class of Cardiovascular Drug

​Hengrui and Merck strike exclusive deal for HRS-5346, with upfront payment of $200M and potential milestone payments up to $1.77B. HRS-5346 is...

Tina Banerjee

China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.23)-Fosun Pharma Sells United Family Healthcare, MNC's Inflection Point

​National immunization program likely to include HPV vaccination. MNCs in China see an inflection point, potential withdrawal. Fosun Pharma sells...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Eisai (4523 JP): 3L Drive 9MFY25 Result; FY25 Guidance Reaffirmed; Leqembi at an Inflection Point

​Eisai sees strong revenue and profit growth in 9MFY25, but Q4FY25 outlook seems weaker with potential loss. Focus will be on addressing safety...

Tina Banerjee

BeiGene (6160 HK): Brukinsa Outpaces Competitor in 4Q US Sales; Solid Guidance for 2025

​BeiGene's Brukinsa sees significant growth in U.S. sales, surpassing Calquence for the first time, with 60%+ demand growth from expanded use in...

Tina Banerjee

Near-Term Downside Likely Following False Breakouts; Targeting 5770-5850; Long-Term Still Bullish

Near-Term Downside Likely After False Breakouts $SPX $QQQ; Long-Term Still Bullish; Major Tops on $DXY, 10-Year Treasury Yield. If < 6100 and 6150...

Vermilion Research

Hengrui and Merck strike exclusive deal for HRS-5346, with upfront payment of $200M and potential milestone payments up to $1.77B. HRS-5346 is...

National immunization program likely to include HPV vaccination. MNCs in China see an inflection point, potential withdrawal. Fosun Pharma sells...

Eisai sees strong revenue and profit growth in 9MFY25, but Q4FY25 outlook seems weaker with potential loss. Focus will be on addressing safety...

BeiGene's Brukinsa sees significant growth in U.S. sales, surpassing Calquence for the first time, with 60%+ demand growth from expanded use in...