Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term, Urbem (HK) Limited

Urbem Capital

Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

Urbem (HK) Limited

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our 2021 thesis failed on its own terms: the shares fell about 61% and total return was roughly −42%, although revenue and profit grew modestly.</li>
<li>The error was framing royalties as a perpetual bond: streams expire, troponin delivered a quarter of the cited estimate, and China eroded the edges.</li>
<li>At about 11× earnings and a near-10% yield, the market now prices a run-off; neurology's move into approved tests is the option.</li>
</ul>


Our 2021 thesis failed on its own terms: the shares fell about 61% and total return was roughly −42%, although revenue and profit grew modestly.
The error was framing royalties as a perpetual bond: streams expire, troponin delivered a quarter of the cited estimate, and China eroded the edges.
At about 11× earnings and a near-10% yield, the market now prices a run-off; neurology's move into approved tests is the option.


Bioventix Revisited: The Bond Proxy That Forgot Its Maturity Date

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We had been near-term bullish on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) since our 4/22/25 Compass, however, we are officially downgrading our near-term outlook to neutral</li>
<li>The SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are breaking below their 50-day MAs and are also violating their multi-month uptrends, signaling a consolidation period is here</li>
<li>Still, our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish (as of 5/14/25 report), and we'll maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain constructive and the SPX is above 6200</li>
</ul>


We had been near-term bullish on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) since our 4/22/25 Compass, however, we are officially downgrading our near-term outlook to neutral
The SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are breaking below their 50-day MAs and are also violating their multi-month uptrends, signaling a consolidation period is here
Still, our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish (as of 5/14/25 report), and we'll maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain constructive and the SPX is above 6200


Coasting as We Stalk for Buying Opportunity; Downgrading Discretionary to Underweight

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Leads Biolabs initiated Phase 2 clinical study evaluating LBL-024 for the first-line treatment of HCC. Henlius Biotech got FDA approval for Poherdy, as the first interchangeable biosimilar to Roche’s Perjeta.</li>
<li>Otsuka announced positive Phase 3 interim analysis of sibeprenlimab for immunoglobulin A nephropathy. ABL Bio signed technology transfer and joint R&amp;D agreement with Eli Lilly for upfront payment of $40M.</li>
<li>Boryung Pharmaceutical began construction to double its oral penicillin production capacity. Eubiologics published positive result from Phase 3 clinical trial evaluating EuTYPH-C, a typhoid conjugate vaccine.</li>
</ul>


Leads Biolabs initiated Phase 2 clinical study evaluating LBL-024 for the first-line treatment of HCC. Henlius Biotech got FDA approval for Poherdy, as the first interchangeable biosimilar to Roche’s Perjeta.
Otsuka announced positive Phase 3 interim analysis of sibeprenlimab for immunoglobulin A nephropathy. ABL Bio signed technology transfer and joint R&amp;D agreement with Eli Lilly for upfront payment of $40M.
Boryung Pharmaceutical began construction to double its oral penicillin production capacity. Eubiologics published positive result from Phase 3 clinical trial evaluating EuTYPH-C, a typhoid conjugate vaccine.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (November 16) – Leads Bio, Henlius Bio, Otsuka, ABL Bio, Boryung, Eubiologics

<ul>
<li>Innovent Biologics announced strategic global collaboration with Takeda for total deal value of $11.4B. Akeso announced that phase 3 trial evaluating ivonescimab versus tislelizumab in sq-NSCLC met primary endpoint.</li>
<li>Celltrion received FDA approval for two additional pediatric indications for Humira biosimilar, Yuflyma. Classys plans to acquire 77.5% stake in JL Health, South American energy-based aesthetic medical device distribution group. </li>
<li>Syngene plans to add a bioconjugation suite at its commercial biologics facility. Cipla and Eli Lilly agreed to distribute and promote tirzepatide in India under a second brand name, Yurpeak.</li>
</ul>


Innovent Biologics announced strategic global collaboration with Takeda for total deal value of $11.4B. Akeso announced that phase 3 trial evaluating ivonescimab versus tislelizumab in sq-NSCLC met primary endpoint.
Celltrion received FDA approval for two additional pediatric indications for Humira biosimilar, Yuflyma. Classys plans to acquire 77.5% stake in JL Health, South American energy-based aesthetic medical device distribution group. 
Syngene plans to add a bioconjugation suite at its commercial biologics facility. Cipla and Eli Lilly agreed to distribute and promote tirzepatide in India under a second brand name, Yurpeak.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (October 26) – Innovent, Akeso, Celltrion, Classys, Daiichi, Syngene, Cipla

<ul>
<li>Hansoh Pharmaceutical entered outlicense agreement with Roche for upfront and milestone payments of $2B+. Leads Biolabs and Dianthus Therapeutics entered into exclusive global license agreement for pre-clinical asset.</li>
<li>Chugai Pharmaceutical’s partner Eli Lilly announced positive results from Phase 3 trials of orforglipron. SanBio Co announced that their partial change application for AKUUGO is one step ahead for approval.</li>
<li>Celltrion launched Actemra biosimilar, Aptozma in the U.S. at ~35% discount to original drug. Samsung Biologics shareholders approved biologics business spin-off plan to transform the company into a pure-play CDMO.</li>
</ul>


Hansoh Pharmaceutical entered outlicense agreement with Roche for upfront and milestone payments of $2B+. Leads Biolabs and Dianthus Therapeutics entered into exclusive global license agreement for pre-clinical asset.
Chugai Pharmaceutical’s partner Eli Lilly announced positive results from Phase 3 trials of orforglipron. SanBio Co announced that their partial change application for AKUUGO is one step ahead for approval.
Celltrion launched Actemra biosimilar, Aptozma in the U.S. at ~35% discount to original drug. Samsung Biologics shareholders approved biologics business spin-off plan to transform the company into a pure-play CDMO.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (October 19) – Hansoh, Leads Biolabs, Chugai, SanBio, Celltrion, Samsung Bio

United States

Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and sells pharmaceutical products for humans and animals. The Company products are sold in countries around the world. Eli Lilly products include neuroscience, endocrine, anti-infectives, cardiovascular agents, oncology, and animal health products.

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Eli Lilly & (LLY UN)

Bioventix Revisited: The Bond Proxy That Forgot Its Maturity Date

Bioventix's margins and dividends held, yet the shares fell 61%. Our 2021 bond-proxy thesis ignored that royalties mature. Why the setup has...

Urbem Capital

Coasting as We Stalk for Buying Opportunity; Downgrading Discretionary to Underweight

Coasting as We Stalk for Buying Opportunity; Downgrading Near-Term Outlook to Neutral, But Still Bullish Intermediate-Term $SPX $QQQ; Downgrading...

Vermilion Research

APAC Healthcare Weekly (November 16) – Leads Bio, Henlius Bio, Otsuka, ABL Bio, Boryung, Eubiologics

Henlius got FDA approval for Perjeta biosimilar. Otsuka reports positive Phase 3 trial result for sibepernlimab. ABL Bio signed deal with Lilly....

Tina Banerjee

APAC Healthcare Weekly (October 26) – Innovent, Akeso, Celltrion, Classys, Daiichi, Syngene, Cipla

Innovent Biologics announced collaboration with Takeda. FDA approves two additional indications for Celltrion's Humira biosimilar. Syngene is...

Tina Banerjee

APAC Healthcare Weekly (October 19) – Hansoh, Leads Biolabs, Chugai, SanBio, Celltrion, Samsung Bio

Hansoh and Leads Biolabs bag global outlicensing deals. Chugai’s partner Lilly announced positive P3 result for orforglipron. Celltrion launched...

Tina Banerjee

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