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Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

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<ul><li>We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&amp;A.</li><li>Last week, ADAP received the first TCR-T cell therapy approval in solid tumors. SNDX hit a minor regulatory speed bump, while VTVT got a clinical hold.</li><li>VTYX will move past Tyk2 after its Crohn’s failure. LLY succeeded in its heart failure trial with an obesity drug. </li></ul>

We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&amp;A.Last week, ADAP received the first TCR-T cell therapy approval in solid tumors. SNDX hit a minor regulatory speed bump, while VTVT got a clinical hold.VTYX will move past Tyk2 after its Crohn’s failure. LLY succeeded in its heart failure trial with an obesity drug. 

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Innovent Biologics Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Innovent’s 24H1 product revenue exceeded RMB3.7 billion.Due to anti-corruption campaign, newly marketed PD-1s are unable to be admitted to the hospitals normally, which indirectly promotes the sales performance of sintilimab.</li>
<li>2024 full-year product revenue is estimated to reach RMB7.7 billion. IBI363 has the potential to be blockbuster variety in global markets, which may put Innovent’s valuation on a new level.</li>
<li>Innovent is undervalued if market value is below RMB38.5 billion.If mazdutide is able to contribute RMB10 billion sales, Innovent’s market value would reach about RMB90-100 billion (based on 5 P/S).</li>
</ul>


Innovent’s 24H1 product revenue exceeded RMB3.7 billion.Due to anti-corruption campaign, newly marketed PD-1s are unable to be admitted to the hospitals normally, which indirectly promotes the sales performance of sintilimab.
2024 full-year product revenue is estimated to reach RMB7.7 billion. IBI363 has the potential to be blockbuster variety in global markets, which may put Innovent’s valuation on a new level.
Innovent is undervalued if market value is below RMB38.5 billion.If mazdutide is able to contribute RMB10 billion sales, Innovent’s market value would reach about RMB90-100 billion (based on 5 P/S).


2024 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK) 24Q2 - Valuation Upside Will Be Further Opened Up

<ul><li>Last week, IONS matched Ultragenyx’s Angelman benefit, with maybe better safety.</li><li>PFE and SGMO had approvable gene therapy results in hemophilia A, but durability remains a question.</li><li>BIIB had a bad week, as SAGE-partnered essential tumor trial failed and ESAIY-partnered lecanemab in Alzheimer’s hit an EU regulatory wall. </li></ul>

Last week, IONS matched Ultragenyx’s Angelman benefit, with maybe better safety.PFE and SGMO had approvable gene therapy results in hemophilia A, but durability remains a question.BIIB had a bad week, as SAGE-partnered essential tumor trial failed and ESAIY-partnered lecanemab in Alzheimer’s hit an EU regulatory wall. 

<ul><li>We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&amp;A.</li><li>Roche Holding Ltd. (RHHBY) reported initial Phase 1 data for oral GLP-1R agonist CT-996 in obesity patients, showing a 6.1% placebo-adjusted weight loss (p&lt;0.001) at four weeks.</li><li>While the weight loss compares favorably with approved injectables at four weeks (1-3% adjusted), the lack of details in the CT996 data, like baseline body weight, limits any cross-trial comparison. </li></ul>

We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&amp;A.Roche Holding Ltd. (RHHBY) reported initial Phase 1 data for oral GLP-1R agonist CT-996 in obesity patients, showing a 6.1% placebo-adjusted weight loss (p&lt;0.001) at four weeks.While the weight loss compares favorably with approved injectables at four weeks (1-3% adjusted), the lack of details in the CT996 data, like baseline body weight, limits any cross-trial comparison. 

<ul><li>We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&amp;A.</li><li>Morphic Holding, Inc. (MORF) agreed to be acquired by Eli Lilly and Co. (LLY) for $3.2 billion or $57/share in cash, with value primarily driven by lead drug MORF-057, an oral α4β7 integrin inhibitor, in Phase 2s for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). MORF-057 looks to compete against injectable biologics in the large UC and Crohn’s markets, aiming for similar efficacy, better safety, and oral convenience.</li><li>Morphic’s novel drug shares the same target as Takeda’s Entyvio, a successful anti-α4β7 antibody. MORF was up 75% last Monday.</li></ul>

We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&amp;A.Morphic Holding, Inc. (MORF) agreed to be acquired by Eli Lilly and Co. (LLY) for $3.2 billion or $57/share in cash, with value primarily driven by lead drug MORF-057, an oral α4β7 integrin inhibitor, in Phase 2s for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). MORF-057 looks to compete against injectable biologics in the large UC and Crohn’s markets, aiming for similar efficacy, better safety, and oral convenience.Morphic’s novel drug shares the same target as Takeda’s Entyvio, a successful anti-α4β7 antibody. MORF was up 75% last Monday.

United States

Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and sells pharmaceutical products for humans and animals.  The Company's products are sold in countries around the world.  Eli Lilly's products include neuroscience products, endocrine products, anti-infectives, cardiovascular agents, oncology products, and animal health products.

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Eli Lilly & Co (LLY US)

Biopharma Week in Review

We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&A.

Water Tower Research

2024 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK) 24Q2 - Valuation Upside Will Be Further Opened Up

Innovent's revenue growth in 24H1 was commendable. IBI363 has the potential to be blockbuster drug in global markets. Market value to reach above...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Biopharma Week in Review - Jul 29, 2024

Last week, IONS matched Ultragenyx’s Angelman benefit, with maybe better safety. PFE and SGMO had approvable gene therapy results in hemophilia A,...

Water Tower Research

Biopharma Week in Review - Jul 22, 2024

Roche Holding Ltd. (RHHBY) reported initial Phase 1 data for oral GLP-1R agonist CT-996 in obesity patients, showing a 6.1% placebo-adjusted weight...

Water Tower Research

Biopharma Week in Review - July 15, 2024

We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&A.

Water Tower Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Biopharma Week in Review

We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&A.

Water Tower Research

2024 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK) 24Q2 - Valuation Upside Will Be Further Opened Up

​Innovent's revenue growth in 24H1 was commendable. IBI363 has the potential to be blockbuster drug in global markets. Market value to reach above...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Biopharma Week in Review - Jul 29, 2024

Last week, IONS matched Ultragenyx’s Angelman benefit, with maybe better safety. PFE and SGMO had approvable gene therapy results in hemophilia A,...

Water Tower Research

Biopharma Week in Review - Jul 22, 2024

Roche Holding Ltd. (RHHBY) reported initial Phase 1 data for oral GLP-1R agonist CT-996 in obesity patients, showing a 6.1% placebo-adjusted weight...

Water Tower Research

Biopharma Week in Review - July 15, 2024

We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&A.

Water Tower Research

Innovent's revenue growth in 24H1 was commendable. IBI363 has the potential to be blockbuster drug in global markets. Market value to reach above...