Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our October 26, 2023 Int'l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low.</li>
<li>Then, in our November 2, 2023 report, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency), before discussing expectations for a year-end rally on Nov.16</li>
<li>We see a massive opportunity in global gold/silver miners with gold nearing multi-year breakout. Also buy opportunities: Utilities in Europe, UK, and India; Materials, Industrials, Transportation, Real Estate, and Technology</li>
</ul>


In our October 26, 2023 Int'l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low.
Then, in our November 2, 2023 report, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency), before discussing expectations for a year-end rally on Nov.16
We see a massive opportunity in global gold/silver miners with gold nearing multi-year breakout. Also buy opportunities: Utilities in Europe, UK, and India; Materials, Industrials, Transportation, Real Estate, and Technology


Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Semiconductors are the 2nd largest industry allocation and the 6th largest overweight among EM active managers. However, the momentum witnessed between 2019 and 2021 has stalled.</li>
<li>EM Growth funds remain overweight, but Value and GARP funds switch from an equal weight to an underweight.</li>
<li>TSMC is the dominant stock holding whilst SK Hynix and Mediatek occupy a 2nd tier. Alchip Technologies has captured inflows, whilst EM funds are closing LONGi Green Energy Technology exposure</li>
</ul>


Semiconductors are the 2nd largest industry allocation and the 6th largest overweight among EM active managers. However, the momentum witnessed between 2019 and 2021 has stalled.
EM Growth funds remain overweight, but Value and GARP funds switch from an equal weight to an underweight.
TSMC is the dominant stock holding whilst SK Hynix and Mediatek occupy a 2nd tier. Alchip Technologies has captured inflows, whilst EM funds are closing LONGi Green Energy Technology exposure


EM Semiconductors:  Positioning Deep Dive

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. </li>
<li>The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).</li>
<li>The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).</li>
</ul>


In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. 
The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).
The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).


MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Taiwan in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on TSMC, Formosa Chemicals &amp; Fibre, UMC, Evergreen Marine, Nan Ya Plastics, Formosa Plastics.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Taiwan in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on TSMC, Formosa Chemicals &amp; Fibre, UMC, Evergreen Marine, Nan Ya Plastics, Formosa Plastics.


MS-Taiwan Index Earning Revision (Jul): TSMC, Formosa Chemicals & Fibre, UMC, Evergreen Marine

China (MSCI China) continues to offer many attractive setups and accounts for the vast majority of today’s recommendations. Taiwan (TAIEX) continues to be worthy of an overweight within the EM universe, while Brazil (Bovespa) and India (SENSEX) display improving price and RS trends -

China (MSCI China) continues to offer many attractive setups and accounts for the vast majority of today’s recommendations. Taiwan (TAIEX) continues to be worthy of an overweight within the EM universe, while Brazil (Bovespa) and India (SENSEX) display improving price and RS trends -

US Dollar Weakness Remains A Tailwind For EM

Taiwan

eMemory Technology, Inc. develops and provides logic non-volatile memory (LogicNVM) technology. The company licenses its intellectual property to semiconductor foundries, integrated devices manufacturers (IDMs), and fabless design houses around the world.

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Ememory Technology (3529 TT)

Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

Our bullish outlook on global equities $ACWI remains intact. We are also upgrading Brazil $EWZ to overweight. We continue to expect a rally into...

Vermilion Research

EM Semiconductors: Positioning Deep Dive

The momentum in Semiconductor positioning witnessed between 2019 and 2021 has stalled. In this report we identifying the funds and the companies...

Steven Holden

MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Signs continue to point to a topping $DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. $EAFE). Many ideas in China/Hong...

Vermilion Research

MS-Taiwan Index Earning Revision (Jul): TSMC, Formosa Chemicals & Fibre, UMC, Evergreen Marine

We analyzed MS-Taiwan's consensus for Jul 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in TSMC, Formosa Chemicals & Fibre, UMC, Evergreen Marine, Nan Ya...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

US Dollar Weakness Remains A Tailwind For EM

China accounts for the vast majority of today’s recommendations. Taiwan (TAIEX) continues to be worthy of an overweight within EM, while Brazil...

Vermilion Research

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