Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI -- ACWI-US) and the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remain topside their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.</li>
<li>As discussed last week (October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass), we upgraded our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish, saying to use any pre-election pullback as opportunity to buy.</li>
<li>The pullback appears to be underway, and we are buyers as long as ACWI-US and S&amp;P 500 remain above their aforementioned bases</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI -- ACWI-US) and the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remain topside their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.
As discussed last week (October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass), we upgraded our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish, saying to use any pre-election pullback as opportunity to buy.
The pullback appears to be underway, and we are buyers as long as ACWI-US and S&amp;P 500 remain above their aforementioned bases


Buying Global Technology; SPX and MSCI ACWI Above Base Supports; Sea, TSMC, SAP, Luxshare, & More

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>ICTK reported excellent book building results. ICTK's IPO price has been determined at 20,000 won, which is 25% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.</li>
<li>ICTK is a security company specializing in Internet of Things (IoT) based on physical copy prevention technology called PUF which is a cutting-edge technology during the chip manufacturing process.</li>
<li>Our base case valuation is implied market cap of 376.8 billion won or target price of 28,694 won, which is 43% higher than the IPO price (20,000 won).</li>
</ul>


ICTK reported excellent book building results. ICTK's IPO price has been determined at 20,000 won, which is 25% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
ICTK is a security company specializing in Internet of Things (IoT) based on physical copy prevention technology called PUF which is a cutting-edge technology during the chip manufacturing process.
Our base case valuation is implied market cap of 376.8 billion won or target price of 28,694 won, which is 43% higher than the IPO price (20,000 won).


<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of ICTK is target price of 28,694 won, which is 79% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. </li>
<li>Our base case valuation is based on P/S multiple of 20.8x using our estimated sales of 18.1 billion won in 2025. </li>
<li>ICTK's operating margin improved from -129.9% in 2022 to -38.2% in 2023. We estimate its operating margin to improve further to -12.4% in 2024 and 17.7% in 2025.</li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of ICTK is target price of 28,694 won, which is 79% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. 
Our base case valuation is based on P/S multiple of 20.8x using our estimated sales of 18.1 billion won in 2025. 
ICTK's operating margin improved from -129.9% in 2022 to -38.2% in 2023. We estimate its operating margin to improve further to -12.4% in 2024 and 17.7% in 2025.


Asm International Nv / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are resuming their uptrends following several weeks of consolidation above major base supports (classic bull market behavior). Our outlook for global equities remains bullish.</li>
<li>Europe's EURO STOXX 50 has held above critical support at 4400-4415, and now displays a bull flag breakout following over a month of consolidation -- add exposure</li>
<li>We highlight many buy opportunities within global Technology, Services, and Communications</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are resuming their uptrends following several weeks of consolidation above major base supports (classic bull market behavior). Our outlook for global equities remains bullish.
Europe's EURO STOXX 50 has held above critical support at 4400-4415, and now displays a bull flag breakout following over a month of consolidation -- add exposure
We highlight many buy opportunities within global Technology, Services, and Communications


EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Technology, Services, & Comm

iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our October 26, 2023 Int'l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low.</li>
<li>Then, in our November 2, 2023 report, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency), before discussing expectations for a year-end rally on Nov.16</li>
<li>We see a massive opportunity in global gold/silver miners with gold nearing multi-year breakout. Also buy opportunities: Utilities in Europe, UK, and India; Materials, Industrials, Transportation, Real Estate, and Technology</li>
</ul>


In our October 26, 2023 Int'l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low.
Then, in our November 2, 2023 report, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency), before discussing expectations for a year-end rally on Nov.16
We see a massive opportunity in global gold/silver miners with gold nearing multi-year breakout. Also buy opportunities: Utilities in Europe, UK, and India; Materials, Industrials, Transportation, Real Estate, and Technology


Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

Taiwan

eMemory Technology, Inc. develops and provides logic non-volatile memory (LogicNVM) technology. The company licenses its intellectual property to semiconductor foundries, integrated devices manufacturers (IDMs), and fabless design houses around the world.

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Ememory Technology (3529 TT)

Buying Global Technology; SPX and MSCI ACWI Above Base Supports; Sea, TSMC, SAP, Luxshare, & More

Buying Global Technology; $SPX and MSCI $ACWI Remain Above Base Supports at 5650-5670 and $117; Buying Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM $SE $SAP $GRAB...

Vermilion Research

ICTK IPO Book Building Results Analysis

ICTK reported excellent book building results. ICTK's IPO price has been determined at 20,000 won, which is 25% higher than the high end of the IPO...

Douglas Kim

ICTK IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of ICTK is target price of 28,694 won, which is 79% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.

Douglas Kim

EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Technology, Services, & Comm

EURO $STOXX 50, MSCI $ACWI Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Actionable Themes: Global Technology, Services, and Communications $ASML $ASMIY...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

Our bullish outlook on global equities $ACWI remains intact. We are also upgrading Brazil $EWZ to overweight. We continue to expect a rally into...

Vermilion Research

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