Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Sub-8nm foundry license mix surged from 47.6% to 79% in 1Q26, a real-time read on advanced-node platform demand across TSMC, Samsung, and the leading-edge foundry stack.</li>
<li>
A Tier-1 US foundry engagement (likely Intel Foundry or TSMC Arizona in our view) could be confirmed 2Q26, a leading indicator of which US fab attracts external fabless customers first.</li>
<li>
First 3nm royalties landed in 4Q25; sub-16nm royalty +~700% YoY in 1Q26, confirming the AI accelerator supply chain's transition to leading-edge nodes is now live.</li>
</ul>



Sub-8nm foundry license mix surged from 47.6% to 79% in 1Q26, a real-time read on advanced-node platform demand across TSMC, Samsung, and the leading-edge foundry stack.

A Tier-1 US foundry engagement (likely Intel Foundry or TSMC Arizona in our view) could be confirmed 2Q26, a leading indicator of which US fab attracts external fabless customers first.

First 3nm royalties landed in 4Q25; sub-16nm royalty +~700% YoY in 1Q26, confirming the AI accelerator supply chain's transition to leading-edge nodes is now live.


TechChain Insights Q&A: Inside TSMC, Intel and SMIC's Advanced-Node Pipeline - M31 (6643 TT)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI -- ACWI-US) and the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remain topside their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.</li>
<li>As discussed last week (October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass), we upgraded our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish, saying to use any pre-election pullback as opportunity to buy.</li>
<li>The pullback appears to be underway, and we are buyers as long as ACWI-US and S&amp;P 500 remain above their aforementioned bases</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI -- ACWI-US) and the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remain topside their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.
As discussed last week (October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass), we upgraded our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish, saying to use any pre-election pullback as opportunity to buy.
The pullback appears to be underway, and we are buyers as long as ACWI-US and S&amp;P 500 remain above their aforementioned bases


Buying Global Technology; SPX and MSCI ACWI Above Base Supports; Sea, TSMC, SAP, Luxshare, & More

Asm International Nv / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are resuming their uptrends following several weeks of consolidation above major base supports (classic bull market behavior). Our outlook for global equities remains bullish.</li>
<li>Europe's EURO STOXX 50 has held above critical support at 4400-4415, and now displays a bull flag breakout following over a month of consolidation -- add exposure</li>
<li>We highlight many buy opportunities within global Technology, Services, and Communications</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are resuming their uptrends following several weeks of consolidation above major base supports (classic bull market behavior). Our outlook for global equities remains bullish.
Europe's EURO STOXX 50 has held above critical support at 4400-4415, and now displays a bull flag breakout following over a month of consolidation -- add exposure
We highlight many buy opportunities within global Technology, Services, and Communications


EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Technology, Services, & Comm

iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our October 26, 2023 Int'l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low.</li>
<li>Then, in our November 2, 2023 report, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency), before discussing expectations for a year-end rally on Nov.16</li>
<li>We see a massive opportunity in global gold/silver miners with gold nearing multi-year breakout. Also buy opportunities: Utilities in Europe, UK, and India; Materials, Industrials, Transportation, Real Estate, and Technology</li>
</ul>


In our October 26, 2023 Int'l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low.
Then, in our November 2, 2023 report, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency), before discussing expectations for a year-end rally on Nov.16
We see a massive opportunity in global gold/silver miners with gold nearing multi-year breakout. Also buy opportunities: Utilities in Europe, UK, and India; Materials, Industrials, Transportation, Real Estate, and Technology


Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Semiconductors are the 2nd largest industry allocation and the 6th largest overweight among EM active managers. However, the momentum witnessed between 2019 and 2021 has stalled.</li>
<li>EM Growth funds remain overweight, but Value and GARP funds switch from an equal weight to an underweight.</li>
<li>TSMC is the dominant stock holding whilst SK Hynix and Mediatek occupy a 2nd tier. Alchip Technologies has captured inflows, whilst EM funds are closing LONGi Green Energy Technology exposure</li>
</ul>


Semiconductors are the 2nd largest industry allocation and the 6th largest overweight among EM active managers. However, the momentum witnessed between 2019 and 2021 has stalled.
EM Growth funds remain overweight, but Value and GARP funds switch from an equal weight to an underweight.
TSMC is the dominant stock holding whilst SK Hynix and Mediatek occupy a 2nd tier. Alchip Technologies has captured inflows, whilst EM funds are closing LONGi Green Energy Technology exposure


EM Semiconductors:  Positioning Deep Dive

Taiwan

eMemory Technology, Inc. develops and provides logic non-volatile memory (LogicNVM) technology. The company licenses its intellectual property to semiconductor foundries, integrated devices manufacturers (IDMs), and fabless design houses around the world.

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Ememory Technology (3529 TT)

TechChain Insights Q&A: Inside TSMC, Intel and SMIC's Advanced-Node Pipeline - M31 (6643 TT)

Advanced-node platform demand on the rise, with sub-8nm licenses dominating 1Q26. Tier-1 US foundry engagement could be confirmed 2Q26, signaling...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Buying Global Technology; SPX and MSCI ACWI Above Base Supports; Sea, TSMC, SAP, Luxshare, & More

Buying Global Technology; $SPX and MSCI $ACWI Remain Above Base Supports at 5650-5670 and $117; Buying Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM $SE $SAP $GRAB...

Vermilion Research

EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Technology, Services, & Comm

EURO $STOXX 50, MSCI $ACWI Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Actionable Themes: Global Technology, Services, and Communications $ASML $ASMIY...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

Our bullish outlook on global equities $ACWI remains intact. We are also upgrading Brazil $EWZ to overweight. We continue to expect a rally into...

Vermilion Research

EM Semiconductors: Positioning Deep Dive

The momentum in Semiconductor positioning witnessed between 2019 and 2021 has stalled. In this report we identifying the funds and the companies...

Steven Holden

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