Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for S&amp;P ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the September 2022 Rebalance.</li>
<li>I expect there to be 7 ADDs and 7 DELs for the ASX 200 Index and 23 ADDs and 18 DELs for the ASX 300 Index.</li>
<li>Based on recent price performance, I believe the Potential ADDs could outperform the Potential DELs over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for S&amp;P ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the September 2022 Rebalance.
I expect there to be 7 ADDs and 7 DELs for the ASX 200 Index and 23 ADDs and 18 DELs for the ASX 300 Index.
Based on recent price performance, I believe the Potential ADDs could outperform the Potential DELs over the next few weeks.


S&P/​​​​​​ASX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Potential ADDs Could Outperform Potential DELs

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There could be one change to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> in July following the privatisation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uniti-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29042:1" rel="noopener">Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU)</a>. </li>
<li>Then there will be a whole bunch of changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index in September as part of the regular rebalance. </li>
<li>There is large short interest on a couple of the potential adds and a lot of the potential deletes. That will drive stock price moves closer to implementation.</li>
</ul>


There could be one change to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in July following the privatisation of Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU). 
Then there will be a whole bunch of changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index, S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index in September as part of the regular rebalance. 
There is large short interest on a couple of the potential adds and a lot of the potential deletes. That will drive stock price moves closer to implementation.


S&P/​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep): Plenty of High Impact Changes

<ul>
<li>There is one set of changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 50, one deletion for the S&amp;P/ASX 100, and four adds/ five deletes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade between 2-6 days of ADV on nearly all stocks. Short interest spikes in a few names indicate pre-positioning for the passive flow.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/core-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14712:1" rel="noopener">Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU)</a> is a potential inclusion to the MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index in June and that could add to the passive inflows on the stock.</li>
</ul>


There is one set of changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 50, one deletion for the S&amp;P/ASX 100, and four adds/ five deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). 
Passive trackers will need to trade between 2-6 days of ADV on nearly all stocks. Short interest spikes in a few names indicate pre-positioning for the passive flow.

Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU) is a potential inclusion to the MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index in June and that could add to the passive inflows on the stock.


S&P/​​ASX Index Rebalance (June 2022): Mostly Expected, Some Surprises & Short Interest Spikes

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In response to an <a href="https://www.afr.com/street-talk/bain-capital-checks-out-eml-payments-bankers-chase-other-buyers-20220412-p5acvc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AFR article</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eml-payments-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3232:1" rel="noopener">EML Payments Limited (EML AU)</a> confirmed takeover interest from Bain Capital. However, discussions have ceased. The shares closed 10.5% higher at A$2.94. </li>
<li>The bombed-out share prices of payment companies have supported recent M&amp;A activity such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/afterpay-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24047:1" rel="noopener">Afterpay Holdings (AFY AU)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/square-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23755:1" rel="noopener">Square Inc (SQ US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sezzle-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30969:1" rel="noopener">Sezzle Inc (SZL AU)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zip-co-ltd-3708706d-4978-4e29-acbc-d9702b971da9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29126:1" rel="noopener">Zip Co Ltd (Z1P AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Despite today’s pop, the shares are still 50% down over the last 12 months. EML’s market positioning and expected stronger 2HFY22 should continue to fuel takeover interest.</li>
</ul>


In response to an AFR article, EML Payments Limited (EML AU) confirmed takeover interest from Bain Capital. However, discussions have ceased. The shares closed 10.5% higher at A$2.94. 
The bombed-out share prices of payment companies have supported recent M&amp;A activity such as Afterpay Holdings (AFY AU)/Square Inc (SQ US) and Sezzle Inc (SZL AU)/Zip Co Ltd (Z1P AU).
Despite today’s pop, the shares are still 50% down over the last 12 months. EML’s market positioning and expected stronger 2HFY22 should continue to fuel takeover interest.


EML Payments Flirtation with Bain Likely Not the Last

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:803:1" rel="noopener">Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU)</a> aims to raise around A$500m (US$38m) via an institutional placement to primarily help reduce its gearing and provide more financing flexibility. </p><p>The stock has done well over the past few years but is now trading close to its all time highs. </p>

Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) aims to raise around A$500m (US$38m) via an institutional placement to primarily help reduce its gearing and provide more financing flexibility. The stock has done well over the past few years but is now trading close to its all time highs. 

Seven Group Holdings Placement - Good Track Record but Still a Large Deal to Digest

Australia

EML Payments Limited is a financial services company that specializes in pre-paid financial cards.

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EML Payments Limited (EML AU)

S&P/ASX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Potential ADDs Could Outperform Potential DELs

Piedmont Lithium and GQG partners could be ADDs for both ASX 200 and ASX 300 and both names could have around +35 days of volume to buy.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep): Plenty of High Impact Changes

There are a lot of potential changes to the S&P/ASX family of indices over the next few months. Passive trading impact is high on a lot of stocks...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (June 2022): Mostly Expected, Some Surprises & Short Interest Spikes

Most changes to the indices were expected, there are some surprises & short interest has spiked on some names. CXO could be added to the REMX....

Brian Freitas

EML Payments Flirtation with Bain Likely Not the Last

EML confirmed takeover interest from Bain Capital but discussions have ceased. EML’s market positioning and expected stronger 2HFY22 should...

Arun George

Seven Group Holdings Placement - Good Track Record but Still a Large Deal to Digest

Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) aims to raise around A$500m (US$38m) via an institutional placement to primarily help reduce its gearing and provide...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

S&P/​​​​​​ASX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Potential ADDs Could Outperform Potential DELs

Piedmont Lithium and GQG partners could be ADDs for both ASX 200 and ASX 300 and both names could have around +35 days of volume to buy.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep): Plenty of High Impact Changes

There are a lot of potential changes to the S&P/ASX family of indices over the next few months. Passive trading impact is high on a lot of stocks...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​ASX Index Rebalance (June 2022): Mostly Expected, Some Surprises & Short Interest Spikes

Most changes to the indices were expected, there are some surprises & short interest has spiked on some names. CXO could be added to the REMX....

Brian Freitas

EML Payments Flirtation with Bain Likely Not the Last

EML confirmed takeover interest from Bain Capital but discussions have ceased. EML’s market positioning and expected stronger 2HFY22 should...

Arun George

Seven Group Holdings Placement - Good Track Record but Still a Large Deal to Digest

Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) aims to raise around A$500m (US$38m) via an institutional placement to primarily help reduce its gearing and provide...

Sumeet Singh

S&P/ASX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Potential ADDs Could Outperform Potential DELs

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep): Plenty of High Impact Changes

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (June 2022): Mostly Expected, Some Surprises & Short Interest Spikes