Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 5 additions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> in December. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> is a surprise add (as are some of the others).</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 15.2% and that leads to a round-trip trade of US$8.8bn. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>The MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index has just passed its earlier highs, but a lot of the adds have broken out and are trading much higher than their prior highs.</li>
</ul>


There are 5 additions for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in December. Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is a surprise add (as are some of the others).
Estimated one-way turnover is 15.2% and that leads to a round-trip trade of US$8.8bn. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.
The MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index has just passed its earlier highs, but a lot of the adds have broken out and are trading much higher than their prior highs.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: 5 Adds and US$8.8bn Trade; Zijin Gold Added

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Recent Results: Newmont delivered a strong Q1 2025 performance with record free cash flow of $1.2 billion, driven by higher gold prices and increased production from Tier 1 assets.</li>
<li>Future Plans: The company plans to ramp up Tier 1 output to ~6.7 Moz by 2028, led by projects like Ahafo North, Tanami Expansion 2, and Cadia block-cave development.</li>
<li>Valuation Upside: If current gold prices around $3,400/oz persist, Newmont’s earnings could double vs. consensus, unlocking over 50% potential upside from current share levels.</li>
</ul>


Recent Results: Newmont delivered a strong Q1 2025 performance with record free cash flow of $1.2 billion, driven by higher gold prices and increased production from Tier 1 assets.
Future Plans: The company plans to ramp up Tier 1 output to ~6.7 Moz by 2028, led by projects like Ahafo North, Tanami Expansion 2, and Cadia block-cave development.
Valuation Upside: If current gold prices around $3,400/oz persist, Newmont’s earnings could double vs. consensus, unlocking over 50% potential upside from current share levels.


Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM) – Strong Q1, Tier 1 Growth Ahead, Significant Upside if Gold Holds

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of high and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.</li>
<li>There will be five ADDs for the December 2025 rebal event. We predicted two and the other three are surprises.</li>
<li>We expect <em>one</em>-way flow of US$4.1bn and turnover of ~15% for December 2025. Most of this is <em>re</em>-capping flows of the megacaps.</li>
</ul>


The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of high and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
There will be five ADDs for the December 2025 rebal event. We predicted two and the other three are surprises.
We expect one-way flow of US$4.1bn and turnover of ~15% for December 2025. Most of this is re-capping flows of the megacaps.


[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25 Rebalance Results: Five ADDs; US$4bn One-Way Flow

Financial News, Analysis and Data, FNArena

FNArena

Financial News, Analysis and Data

Online financial media company focused on Australian equities, with a global perspective

<ul><li>Analysts are impressed by an ambitious five-year plan issued by Ramelius Resources.</li><li>FY26 marks the low point of ongoing gold production, according to management.</li><li> Ramelius Resources&rsquo; quarterly, guidance and 5-year plan Management is targeting a 170% increase on FY26 production guidance by FY30 Clever acquisitions and operational excellence receive thumbs up from sector analysts Ramelius considered the standout ASX-listed gold producer</li></ul>

Analysts are impressed by an ambitious five-year plan issued by Ramelius Resources.FY26 marks the low point of ongoing gold production, according to management. Ramelius Resources&rsquo; quarterly, guidance and 5-year plan Management is targeting a 170% increase on FY26 production guidance by FY30 Clever acquisitions and operational excellence receive thumbs up from sector analysts Ramelius considered the standout ASX-listed gold producer

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>A correction has finally started in the precious metals space</li>
<li>What to do now in the sector for both the short and long term</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
A correction has finally started in the precious metals space
What to do now in the sector for both the short and long term


Overview #38 Precious Metals – Has the Fat Lady Sung?

United States

Newmont Corporation acquires, explores, and develops mineral properties. The Company produces and markets gold, copper, silver, zinc, and lead. Newmont serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
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Newmont (NEM AU)

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: 5 Adds and US$8.8bn Trade; Zijin Gold Added

The flows have changed following the non-inclusion of Zijin Gold in the index. With cornerstones locked up till end-March, Zijin Gold will not be...

Brian Freitas

Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM) – Strong Q1, Tier 1 Growth Ahead, Significant Upside if Gold Holds

Newmont's strong Q1 performance driven by record free cash flow, plans to increase Tier 1 output by 2028, and potential for significant earnings...

Rahul Jain

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25 Rebalance Results: Five ADDs; US$4bn One-Way Flow

The Index Provider announced last night that Zijin Gold (2259 HK) - which they had added to the MV Global Gold Miners Index last Friday - would NOT...

Travis Lundy

Thumbs Up For Ramelius' Ambitious Plans

Analysts are impressed by an ambitious five-year plan issued by Ramelius Resources. FY26 marks the low point of ongoing gold production, according...

FNArena

Overview #38 Precious Metals – Has the Fat Lady Sung?

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the recent correction in precious metals and what it means...

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: 5 Adds and US$8.8bn Trade; Zijin Gold Added

The flows have changed following the non-inclusion of Zijin Gold in the index. With cornerstones locked up till end-March, Zijin Gold will not be...

Brian Freitas

Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM) – Strong Q1, Tier 1 Growth Ahead, Significant Upside if Gold Holds

​Newmont's strong Q1 performance driven by record free cash flow, plans to increase Tier 1 output by 2028, and potential for significant earnings...

Rahul Jain

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25 Rebalance Results: Five ADDs; US$4bn One-Way Flow

The Index Provider announced last night that Zijin Gold (2259 HK) - which they had added to the MV Global Gold Miners Index last Friday - would NOT...

Travis Lundy

Thumbs Up For Ramelius' Ambitious Plans

Analysts are impressed by an ambitious five-year plan issued by Ramelius Resources. FY26 marks the low point of ongoing gold production, according...

FNArena

Overview #38 Precious Metals – Has the Fat Lady Sung?

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the recent correction in precious metals and what it means...

Rikki Malik

Newmont's strong Q1 performance driven by record free cash flow, plans to increase Tier 1 output by 2028, and potential for significant earnings...