Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Recent Results: Newmont delivered a strong Q1 2025 performance with record free cash flow of $1.2 billion, driven by higher gold prices and increased production from Tier 1 assets.</li>
<li>Future Plans: The company plans to ramp up Tier 1 output to ~6.7 Moz by 2028, led by projects like Ahafo North, Tanami Expansion 2, and Cadia block-cave development.</li>
<li>Valuation Upside: If current gold prices around $3,400/oz persist, Newmont’s earnings could double vs. consensus, unlocking over 50% potential upside from current share levels.</li>
</ul>


Recent Results: Newmont delivered a strong Q1 2025 performance with record free cash flow of $1.2 billion, driven by higher gold prices and increased production from Tier 1 assets.
Future Plans: The company plans to ramp up Tier 1 output to ~6.7 Moz by 2028, led by projects like Ahafo North, Tanami Expansion 2, and Cadia block-cave development.
Valuation Upside: If current gold prices around $3,400/oz persist, Newmont’s earnings could double vs. consensus, unlocking over 50% potential upside from current share levels.


Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM) – Strong Q1, Tier 1 Growth Ahead, Significant Upside if Gold Holds

Financial News, Analysis and Data, FNArena

FNArena

Financial News, Analysis and Data

Online financial media company focused on Australian equities, with a global perspective

<ul><li>Analysts are impressed by an ambitious five-year plan issued by Ramelius Resources.</li><li>FY26 marks the low point of ongoing gold production, according to management.</li><li> Ramelius Resources&rsquo; quarterly, guidance and 5-year plan Management is targeting a 170% increase on FY26 production guidance by FY30 Clever acquisitions and operational excellence receive thumbs up from sector analysts Ramelius considered the standout ASX-listed gold producer</li></ul>

Analysts are impressed by an ambitious five-year plan issued by Ramelius Resources.FY26 marks the low point of ongoing gold production, according to management. Ramelius Resources&rsquo; quarterly, guidance and 5-year plan Management is targeting a 170% increase on FY26 production guidance by FY30 Clever acquisitions and operational excellence receive thumbs up from sector analysts Ramelius considered the standout ASX-listed gold producer

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>A correction has finally started in the precious metals space</li>
<li>What to do now in the sector for both the short and long term</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
A correction has finally started in the precious metals space
What to do now in the sector for both the short and long term


Overview #38 Precious Metals – Has the Fat Lady Sung?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In my <a href="https://skr.ma/BdEuy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">June note</a>, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group (2899 HK)</a></strong> appeared fully valued; but I (thankfully) stopped short of being outright bearish. Its share price is up 48% since! </li>
<li>A basket of peers is also up 37% since that note. Gold is up~8%, and 41% YTD. On the 14th September, Zijin released Zijin Gold's PHIP. 1H25 numbers were solid.  </li>
<li>However, Zijin Gold's earnings are by no stretch an outlier. Zijin's Mining's current share price is now baking in exceptional (unrealistic?) metrics for the gold play spin-off. </li>
</ul>


In my June note, Zijin Mining Group (2899 HK) appeared fully valued; but I (thankfully) stopped short of being outright bearish. Its share price is up 48% since! 
A basket of peers is also up 37% since that note. Gold is up~8%, and 41% YTD. On the 14th September, Zijin released Zijin Gold's PHIP. 1H25 numbers were solid.  
However, Zijin Gold's earnings are by no stretch an outlier. Zijin's Mining's current share price is now baking in exceptional (unrealistic?) metrics for the gold play spin-off. 


Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>H1 2025 delivered record profitability, with realized gold prices up 41% YoY to ~US$3,020/oz and production surging 77% to 6.75t, lifting margins to ~US$1,440/oz.</li>
<li>Growth is anchored in the Sepon and Wassa ramp-ups, with optionality from the newly identified SND discovery (maiden reserve expected 2026, potential production from 2027–28).</li>
<li>On 2026E, Chifeng trades at ~8× P/E and ~4.6× EV/EBITDA with &gt;10% FCF yields, offering inexpensive exposure to earnings growth; risks remain around execution at overseas mines, cost pressures etc.</li>
</ul>


H1 2025 delivered record profitability, with realized gold prices up 41% YoY to ~US$3,020/oz and production surging 77% to 6.75t, lifting margins to ~US$1,440/oz.
Growth is anchored in the Sepon and Wassa ramp-ups, with optionality from the newly identified SND discovery (maiden reserve expected 2026, potential production from 2027–28).
On 2026E, Chifeng trades at ~8× P/E and ~4.6× EV/EBITDA with &gt;10% FCF yields, offering inexpensive exposure to earnings growth; risks remain around execution at overseas mines, cost pressures etc.


Chifeng Jilong Gold (600988 CH) – Earnings Step-Change, Valuation Undemanding

United States

Newmont Corporation acquires, explores, and develops mineral properties. The Company produces and markets gold, copper, silver, zinc, and lead. Newmont serves customers worldwide.

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Newmont (NEM AU)

Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM) – Strong Q1, Tier 1 Growth Ahead, Significant Upside if Gold Holds

Newmont's strong Q1 performance driven by record free cash flow, plans to increase Tier 1 output by 2028, and potential for significant earnings...

Rahul Jain

Thumbs Up For Ramelius' Ambitious Plans

Analysts are impressed by an ambitious five-year plan issued by Ramelius Resources. FY26 marks the low point of ongoing gold production, according...

FNArena

Overview #38 Precious Metals – Has the Fat Lady Sung?

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the recent correction in precious metals and what it means...

Rikki Malik

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): This Is A Short

I can envisage a market cap of US$20-25bn. Maybe US$30bn if pushing PER or EV/EBITDA metrics. $40bn appears unhinged. I'd be shorting Zijin Mining...

David Blennerhassett

Chifeng Jilong Gold (600988 CH) – Earnings Step-Change, Valuation Undemanding

Record profitability in H1 2025 driven by surging gold prices and production, with growth anchored in Sepon and Wassa ramp-ups and potential from...

Rahul Jain

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM) – Strong Q1, Tier 1 Growth Ahead, Significant Upside if Gold Holds

​Newmont's strong Q1 performance driven by record free cash flow, plans to increase Tier 1 output by 2028, and potential for significant earnings...

Rahul Jain

Thumbs Up For Ramelius' Ambitious Plans

Analysts are impressed by an ambitious five-year plan issued by Ramelius Resources. FY26 marks the low point of ongoing gold production, according...

FNArena

Overview #38 Precious Metals – Has the Fat Lady Sung?

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the recent correction in precious metals and what it means...

Rikki Malik

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): This Is A Short

I can envisage a market cap of US$20-25bn. Maybe US$30bn if pushing PER or EV/EBITDA metrics. $40bn appears unhinged. I'd be shorting Zijin Mining...

David Blennerhassett

Chifeng Jilong Gold (600988 CH) – Earnings Step-Change, Valuation Undemanding

​Record profitability in H1 2025 driven by surging gold prices and production, with growth anchored in Sepon and Wassa ramp-ups and potential from...

Rahul Jain

Newmont's strong Q1 performance driven by record free cash flow, plans to increase Tier 1 output by 2028, and potential for significant earnings...

Record profitability in H1 2025 driven by surging gold prices and production, with growth anchored in Sepon and Wassa ramp-ups and potential from...