Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Semirara Mining & Power / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Today is the last day of the review period for the August rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>We see a high probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semirara-mining-and-power-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18925:1" rel="noopener">Semirara Mining And Power Corp (SCC PM)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/security-bank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3929:1" rel="noopener">Security Bank (SECB PM)</a> in the index.</li>
<li>Historically, the adds have outperformed the deletes and there has been a pop/drop in the adds/deletes the day after announcement. There is one month to pre-position for the announcement.</li>
</ul>


Today is the last day of the review period for the August rebalance of the Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX). 
We see a high probability of Semirara Mining And Power Corp (SCC PM) replacing Security Bank (SECB PM) in the index.
Historically, the adds have outperformed the deletes and there has been a pop/drop in the adds/deletes the day after announcement. There is one month to pre-position for the announcement.


PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview: SCC Likely Replaces SECB

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34915:1" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB)</a> is set to launch a US$1bn IPO; BeerCo and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-tianqi-lithium-industries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5698:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Tianqi Lithium Industries, Inc (002466 CH)</a> are premarketing US$0.8-1.0bn and US$1.0-1.5bn IPOs, respectively.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giordano-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13899:1" rel="noopener">Giordano International (709 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-net-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1050:1" rel="noopener">Link Net (LINK IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> merger, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infomedia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11385:1" rel="noopener">Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/narhex-life-sciences-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9728:1" rel="noopener">Resapp Health (RAP AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
ECM - Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) is set to launch a US$1bn IPO; BeerCo and Sichuan Tianqi Lithium Industries, Inc (002466 CH) are premarketing US$0.8-1.0bn and US$1.0-1.5bn IPOs, respectively.
Event-Driven developments at Giordano International (709 HK), Link Net (LINK IJ), Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)/True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) merger, Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU), Resapp Health (RAP AU).


Weekly Deals Digest (26 Jun) - ThaiBev's BeerCo, Thai Life, Tianqi Lithium, Giordano, DTAC/True

<ul>
<li>With just over a month to go in the review period for the August rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX)</a>, we expect one potential change. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/security-bank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3929:1" rel="noopener">Security Bank (SECB PM)</a> is a potential deletion. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semirara-mining-and-power-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18925:1" rel="noopener">Semirara Mining And Power Corp (SCC PM)</a> has a higher inclusion probability as compared to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unionbank-of-the-philippines" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23192:1" rel="noopener">UnionBank of the Philippines (UBP PM)</a>. </li>
<li>Passive funds will need to trade quite a few days of ADV on the stocks. Historically, the adds have outperformed the deletes in the last leg of the review period.</li>
</ul>


With just over a month to go in the review period for the August rebalance of the Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX), we expect one potential change. 

Security Bank (SECB PM) is a potential deletion. Semirara Mining And Power Corp (SCC PM) has a higher inclusion probability as compared to UnionBank of the Philippines (UBP PM). 
Passive funds will need to trade quite a few days of ADV on the stocks. Historically, the adds have outperformed the deletes in the last leg of the review period.


PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview Aug 22: One Set of Potential Changes

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emperador-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3485:1" rel="noopener">Emperador Inc (EMP PM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monde-nissin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32188:1" rel="noopener">Monde Nissin Corp (MONDE PM)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloomberry-resorts-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17961:1" rel="noopener">Bloomberry Resorts (BLOOM PM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robinsons-retail-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10598:1" rel="noopener">Robinsons Retail Holdings (RRHI PM)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP)</a>.</li>
<li>There will be a lot to trade from passive funds. Implementation will take place at the close on 11 February - there are only 5 days to go.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emperador-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3485:1" rel="noopener">Emperador Inc (EMP PM)</a> has rallied over the last month while the deletions have traded lower. As re-opening plays, the passive selling could provide an opportunity to buy the deletes.</li>
</ul>



Emperador Inc (EMP PM) and Monde Nissin Corp (MONDE PM) will replace Bloomberry Resorts (BLOOM PM) and Robinsons Retail Holdings (RRHI PM) in the Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP).
There will be a lot to trade from passive funds. Implementation will take place at the close on 11 February - there are only 5 days to go.

Emperador Inc (EMP PM) has rallied over the last month while the deletions have traded lower. As re-opening plays, the passive selling could provide an opportunity to buy the deletes.


PCOMP Index Rebalance: EMP, MONDE Could Pop; BLOOM, RRHI Could Drop

<ul>
<li>We see three potential changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX)</a> at the February rebalance. Two are higher probability changes, while one has a lower probability.</li>
<li>Typically, the inclusions rally and the deletions drop between announcement and implementation with a big jump immediately post announcement. Pre-positioning prior to announcement is important.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloomberry-resorts-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17961:1" rel="noopener">Bloomberry Resorts (BLOOM PM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robinsons-retail-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10598:1" rel="noopener">Robinsons Retail Holdings (RRHI PM)</a> are reopening plays and investors that are looking to buy the stocks could wait for index deletion to get liquidity.</li>
</ul>


We see three potential changes to the Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX) at the February rebalance. Two are higher probability changes, while one has a lower probability.
Typically, the inclusions rally and the deletions drop between announcement and implementation with a big jump immediately post announcement. Pre-positioning prior to announcement is important.

Bloomberry Resorts (BLOOM PM) and Robinsons Retail Holdings (RRHI PM) are reopening plays and investors that are looking to buy the stocks could wait for index deletion to get liquidity.


PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview Feb22: Three Potential Changes & Large Impact

Philippines

Emperador Inc. is a global spirits company that manufactures, bottles, and distributes distilled spirits and other alcoholic beverages. The company's portfolio includes award-winning brandy and whisky brands, such as Emperador Brandy, The Dalmore, Jura, and Fundador. Emperador Inc. is headquartered in Quezon City, Philippines, and was founded in 1979.

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Emperador (EMI PM)

PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview: SCC Likely Replaces SECB

We see Semirara Mining (SCC) replacing Security Bank (SECB) at the August rebalance of the PCOMP Index. Passive trackers will need to buy over 5...

Brian Freitas

Weekly Deals Digest (26 Jun) - ThaiBev's BeerCo, Thai Life, Tianqi Lithium, Giordano, DTAC/True

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (DTAC/True merger, Giordano, Link Net, Infomedia, ResApp, AOF, Hwa Hong, AKM, Irongate)...

Arun George

PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview Aug 22: One Set of Potential Changes

We expect SCC PM to be added to the PCOMP Index at the August rebalance replacing SECB PM. Historically, the adds outperform the deletes and there...

Brian Freitas

PCOMP Index Rebalance: EMP, MONDE Could Pop; BLOOM, RRHI Could Drop

Emperador and Monde Nissin will replace Bloomberry Resorts and Robinson Retail in the PCOMP after the close on 11 February. Only 5 days to...

Brian Freitas

PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview Feb22: Three Potential Changes & Large Impact

We forecast 3 potential changes to the PCOMP at the February rebalance that could see MONDE, EMP and DITO added and BLOOM, RRHI and SECB deleted....

Brian Freitas

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