European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

The Spanish Government ends, de facto, the liberalizing regime that ruled over the Spanish economy since 1999, because it considers necessary to limit the possible acquisitions of strategic Spanish companies by ANY foreign investor after the COVID-19 hit.
The Spanish Government enhances anti-takeover rules:
<ul>
<li>Temporarily until June 30, 2021, the Government has suspended the liberalization regime for foreign direct investments made by residents and other countries of the EU and the EFTA. Any attempt to acquire over 10% of a Spanish listed company by any EU or EFTA corporate or investor must be approved by the Cabinet.
</li>
<li>In the case of investments of non-EU origin, the suspension of the liberalization regime is maintained indefinitely, until a new legislative change is introduced.</li>
<li>This protects the Ibex 35 companies from takeover raids by European rivals.</li>
</ul>
This rule could make it possible to avoid hypothetical bids of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:812:1" rel="noopener">Total Sa (FP FP)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eni-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21185:1" rel="noopener">Eni SpA (ENI IM)</a> for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/repsol-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21292:1" rel="noopener">Repsol SA (REP SM)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deutsche-telekom-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21611:1" rel="noopener">Deutsche Telekom Ag (DTE GR)</a> for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telefonica-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21299:1" rel="noopener">Telefonica SA (TEF SM)</a> , which have been the subject of rumours in the market.
<ul>
<li>Analysts see Repsol and Telefónica as the most vulnerable members of the IBEX 35 index, due to their current low valuation. Repsol trades at 4.9x EV/Forward EBITDA vs. the median of comparable companies, 6.3x. Telefonica is trading at 5.2x EV/Forward EBITA vs. the median of comparable companies, 6.5x.</li>
</ul>
Some transactions that are underway could be affected. For example, the French group Vinci agreed to buy the industrial services division of ACS, for over €5 bn (for reference: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/acs-unlocking-value-via-disposals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44311" rel="noopener">ACS: Unlocking Value Via Disposals</a>).

The Spanish Government ends, de facto, the liberalizing regime that ruled over the Spanish economy since 1999, because it considers necessary to limit the possible acquisitions of strategic Spanish companies by ANY foreign investor after the COVID-19 hit.
The Spanish Government enhances anti-takeover rules:

Temporarily until June 30, 2021, the Government has suspended the liberalization regime for foreign direct investments made by residents and other countries of the EU and the EFTA. Any attempt to acquire over 10% of a Spanish listed company by any EU or EFTA corporate or investor must be approved by the Cabinet.

In the case of investments of non-EU origin, the suspension of the liberalization regime is maintained indefinitely, until a new legislative change is introduced.
This protects the Ibex 35 companies from takeover raids by European rivals.

This rule could make it possible to avoid hypothetical bids of Total Sa (FP FP) or Eni SpA (ENI IM) for Repsol SA (REP SM) or Deutsche Telekom Ag (DTE GR) for Telefonica SA (TEF SM) , which have been the subject of rumours in the market.

Analysts see Repsol and Telefónica as the most vulnerable members of the IBEX 35 index, due to their current low valuation. Repsol trades at 4.9x EV/Forward EBITDA vs. the median of comparable companies, 6.3x. Telefonica is trading at 5.2x EV/Forward EBITA vs. the median of comparable companies, 6.5x.

Some transactions that are underway could be affected. For example, the French group Vinci agreed to buy the industrial services division of ACS, for over €5 bn (for reference: ACS: Unlocking Value Via Disposals).

Enhanced Limits to Investments in Spanish Companies

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

Industrial production in Eurozone continues to struggle to gain momentum and came in weaker than expected in June which poses a risk to our GDP outlook of 1.3% for 2016 (lowered from 1.6% after the Brexit vote). While the weakness in factory output was seen ahead of the Brexit vote, the effect of UK’s exit is clearly felt in the aftermath, and it is expected to come in weaker going forward.Industrial Production (IPI) in the Eurozone came in at 0.4% y-o-y in June 2016 similar to the growth seen…

Industrial production in Eurozone continues to struggle to gain momentum and came in weaker than expected in June which poses a risk to our GDP outlook of 1.3% for 2016 (lowered from 1.6% after the Brexit vote). While the weakness in factory output was seen ahead of the Brexit vote, the effect of UK’s exit is clearly felt in the aftermath, and it is expected to come in weaker going forward.Industrial Production (IPI) in the Eurozone came in at 0.4% y-o-y in June 2016 similar to the growth seen…

EUROZONE: Weak Industrial Production Poses Risk to GDP Growth

Weakness in industrial production growth in May was seen across most major sectors and economies, which clearly shows that the Euro Zone industry is struggling to gain momentum which poses a risk to our GDP outlook of 1.3% for 2016 (lowered from 1.6% after the Brexit vote).Industrial Production (IPI) in the Eurozone slowed to 0.6% y-o-y in May 2016 after having recorded a growth of 2.1% y-o-y in April 2016 on a seasonally and working day adjusted (swda) basis. On a 3 month moving average (3mma)…

Weakness in industrial production growth in May was seen across most major sectors and economies, which clearly shows that the Euro Zone industry is struggling to gain momentum which poses a risk to our GDP outlook of 1.3% for 2016 (lowered from 1.6% after the Brexit vote).Industrial Production (IPI) in the Eurozone slowed to 0.6% y-o-y in May 2016 after having recorded a growth of 2.1% y-o-y in April 2016 on a seasonally and working day adjusted (swda) basis. On a 3 month moving average (3mma)…

EUROZONE: Industrial Production GROWTh Slows ACROSS SECTORS AND COUNTRIES

Spain

Endesa S.A. is active in the generation, transmission, distribution, and commercialization of electricity in Spain, Portugal, and North Africa. The company is also a major operator in the natural gas market and offers other services related to the energy business.

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Endesa SA (ELE SM)

Enhanced Limits to Investments in Spanish Companies

Any attempt to acquire over 10% of a Spanish listed company by any foreign investor must be approved by the Cabinet. This could prevent bids of...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

EUROZONE: Weak Industrial Production Poses Risk to GDP Growth

Industrial production in Eurozone continues to struggle to gain momentum and came in weaker than expected in June which poses a risk to our GDP...

Rajan Govil

EUROZONE: Industrial Production GROWTh Slows ACROSS SECTORS AND COUNTRIES

Weakness in industrial production growth in May was seen across most major sectors and economies, which clearly shows that the Euro Zone industry...

Rajan Govil

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