European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Repsol Is evaluating a spin-off and potential reverse merger with APA Corp (APA US) to list its upstream division in the U.S., accelerating its planned 2026 “liquidity event.”</li>
<li>A U.S. listing could narrow Repsol’s valuation gap versus American E&amp;Ps, surface hidden upstream value, and improve liquidity, while management insists on maintaining ≥51 % ownership of the new entity.</li>
<li>The proposed structure offers upside asymmetry: even if talks stall, Repsol retains IPO or private-placement options; a completed deal could unlock 15–25 % SOTP upside through U.S. multiple convergence.</li>
</ul>


Repsol Is evaluating a spin-off and potential reverse merger with APA Corp (APA US) to list its upstream division in the U.S., accelerating its planned 2026 “liquidity event.”
A U.S. listing could narrow Repsol’s valuation gap versus American E&amp;Ps, surface hidden upstream value, and improve liquidity, while management insists on maintaining ≥51 % ownership of the new entity.
The proposed structure offers upside asymmetry: even if talks stall, Repsol retains IPO or private-placement options; a completed deal could unlock 15–25 % SOTP upside through U.S. multiple convergence.


Repsol: Evaluating Reverse Merger with APA — Fast-Track to U.S. Listing

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Repsol's Q1 2025 earnings report underscores both resilience and challenges amidst a fluctuating market environment.</li>
<li>The company's diverse portfolio showcases its strategic agility, enabling it to advance its goals despite external pressures such as geopolitical tensions and varying oil prices.</li>
<li>The first quarter was characterized by significant market volatility, triggered by OPEC's production policies and geopolitical tensions, leading to the lowest oil prices in four years.</li>
</ul>


Repsol's Q1 2025 earnings report underscores both resilience and challenges amidst a fluctuating market environment.
The company's diverse portfolio showcases its strategic agility, enabling it to advance its goals despite external pressures such as geopolitical tensions and varying oil prices.
The first quarter was characterized by significant market volatility, triggered by OPEC's production policies and geopolitical tensions, leading to the lowest oil prices in four years.


Repsol - Strategic Asset Shuffle Sparks EUR 2 Billion Windfall!

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business, Auctus Advisors

Auctus Advisors

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business

Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector. The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy. Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors. Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: Calendar of upcoming activities – Well testing at Welchau is now expected to start in January.</li>
<li>The shallow gas drilling programme will start February 2026 while oil appraisal drilling is scheduled for 3Q26.</li>
<li>Pulsar Helium (PLSR LN)C; Target price of £0.80 per share: High pressure at Jetstream #3 – Jetstream #3 has intersected two gas-bearing intervals at ~523 meters and 621 meters depth, with bottom-hole pressure estimated at ~960 psi at 661 meters.</li>
</ul>


ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: Calendar of upcoming activities – Well testing at Welchau is now expected to start in January.
The shallow gas drilling programme will start February 2026 while oil appraisal drilling is scheduled for 3Q26.
Pulsar Helium (PLSR LN)C; Target price of £0.80 per share: High pressure at Jetstream #3 – Jetstream #3 has intersected two gas-bearing intervals at ~523 meters and 621 meters depth, with bottom-hole pressure estimated at ~960 psi at 661 meters.


<ul>
<li>erica Energy (SQZ LN)C; Target price of £3.05 per share: Another operational setback at Triton; value and distribution profile intact – Operational issues with the flare system at the Triton FPSO have resulted in a temporary suspension of production.</li>
<li>Production is likely to restart shortly at very low rates until the root cause is identified and resolved.</li>
<li>In the absence of further clarity, we conservatively assume that Triton production will be constrained until the scheduled Bittern pipeline shutdown in November.</li>
</ul>


erica Energy (SQZ LN)C; Target price of £3.05 per share: Another operational setback at Triton; value and distribution profile intact – Operational issues with the flare system at the Triton FPSO have resulted in a temporary suspension of production.
Production is likely to restart shortly at very low rates until the root cause is identified and resolved.
In the absence of further clarity, we conservatively assume that Triton production will be constrained until the scheduled Bittern pipeline shutdown in November.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.
Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.


Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Spain

Repsol S.A., through subsidiaries, explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas, refines petroleum, and transports petroleum products and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).  The Company retails gasoline and other products through its chain of gasoline filling stations.  Repsol's petroleum reserves are in Spain, Latin America, Asia, North Africa, and the Middle East and United States.

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Repsol SA (REP SM)

Repsol: Evaluating Reverse Merger with APA — Fast-Track to U.S. Listing

Repsol is exploring a reverse merger of its upstream unit with APA Corp to fast-track a NYSE listing, unlocking U.S. valuation multiples while...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Repsol - Strategic Asset Shuffle Sparks EUR 2 Billion Windfall!

The company's diverse portfolio showcases its strategic agility, enabling it to advance its goals despite external pressures such as geopolitical...

Baptista Research

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 31/10/2025

ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: Calendar of upcoming activities – Well testing at Welchau is now expected to start in January.

Auctus Advisors

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 10/10/2025

Please click here to access the financial metrics for Auctus' coverage universe AUCTUS...

Auctus Advisors

Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Buys in Japan and Europe; China's Shanghai Composite Pulling Back to 10-year Base Support -- Buy; MSCI $ACWI Uptrend Intact. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

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