Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>NVDA lifts markets on comments from Hon Hai Chairman that demand for Blackwell was 'crazy'.</li>
<li>Oil related names in JP will follow US lower on the drop in oil, despite Hurricane Milton having the potential to disrupt production.</li>
<li>HK futures finding off the lows overnight should point to upside for related China names in Japan to start; Gamers to be sold heavily after PIF sale.</li>
</ul>


NVDA lifts markets on comments from Hon Hai Chairman that demand for Blackwell was 'crazy'.
Oil related names in JP will follow US lower on the drop in oil, despite Hurricane Milton having the potential to disrupt production.
HK futures finding off the lows overnight should point to upside for related China names in Japan to start; Gamers to be sold heavily after PIF sale.


Japan Morning Connection: HK Futures off the Lows Should Point to Upside for China Related Names

<ul>
<li>Server related names higher after some big sales numbers and new product launches from SMCI should be a positive for Nidec</li>
<li>Watch for P&amp;C weakness in Japan following losses for peers overnight as Hurricane Milton intensifies as it approaches the Florida coast line</li>
<li>Oil back above $80 will continue to push related names higher; possible refiner pair with 4 days of TPX FFW selling for recent outperformer Idemitsu</li>
</ul>


Server related names higher after some big sales numbers and new product launches from SMCI should be a positive for Nidec
Watch for P&amp;C weakness in Japan following losses for peers overnight as Hurricane Milton intensifies as it approaches the Florida coast line
Oil back above $80 will continue to push related names higher; possible refiner pair with 4 days of TPX FFW selling for recent outperformer Idemitsu


Japan Morning Connection: Oil Through $80 While P&C Take a Hit on Hurricane Milton

<ul>
<li>Big move higher for oil set to spike the JP oil major Inpex although the refiners have large outstanding short interests and may squeeze</li>
<li>The higher oil price is negative for Japan’s utilities which have yet to restart reactors and are dependent on oil/gas imports to fuel their thermal generation</li>
<li>Details are limited on a potential Seven Bank stake sale by 7&amp;I, but there should be room for upside as shorts continue to cover</li>
</ul>


Big move higher for oil set to spike the JP oil major Inpex although the refiners have large outstanding short interests and may squeeze
The higher oil price is negative for Japan’s utilities which have yet to restart reactors and are dependent on oil/gas imports to fuel their thermal generation
Details are limited on a potential Seven Bank stake sale by 7&amp;I, but there should be room for upside as shorts continue to cover


Japan Morning Connection: Spike in Oil Positive for Inpex and Refiners

<ul>
<li>Echoes of August with Japan looking to start the day very weak on the lead from US semi related.</li>
<li>Expect heavy selling for recent retail margin favourites e.g. Mercari, IHI, KHI and Socionext, and SPE winners such as Kokusai and Advantest, although the sector will start under heavy pressure.</li>
<li>Nothing from Nikkei Inc. yet on their NKY225 rebalance decision, but expect outsized volatility today with many multi-strategy pods shuttered during the August sell off.</li>
</ul>


Echoes of August with Japan looking to start the day very weak on the lead from US semi related.
Expect heavy selling for recent retail margin favourites e.g. Mercari, IHI, KHI and Socionext, and SPE winners such as Kokusai and Advantest, although the sector will start under heavy pressure.
Nothing from Nikkei Inc. yet on their NKY225 rebalance decision, but expect outsized volatility today with many multi-strategy pods shuttered during the August sell off.


Japan Morning Connection: Expect Volatility with Retail and SPE Stocks Under Pressure

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Shin Kong Financial Holding / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of August 2024, 10 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$56bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in August was ~47%. The average premium YTD is ~44%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of August 2024, 10 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$56bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in August was ~47%. The average premium YTD is ~44%.
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Aug 2024: Orora, Fuji Soft, J Tower, Seven & I, Taishin/Shin Kong, PropertyGuru

Japan

ENEOS Holdings, Inc. operates refining and marketing businesses. The Company refines and distributes petroleum and petroleum chemical products. ENEOS Holdings also provides non ferrous metals, electronic materials, and other products.

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ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Oil Through $80 While P&C Take a Hit on Hurricane Milton

Positive sales numbers and new product launches from SMCI could benefit Nidec; P&C weakness expected due to Hurricane Milton; Oil above $80...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Spike in Oil Positive for Inpex and Refiners

Surge in oil may squeeze refiners with short interests. Negative for Japanese utilities yet to restart reactors. Potential upside for Seven Bank as...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Expect Volatility with Retail and SPE Stocks Under Pressure

Japan's market set to open weak following US semi-related lead, heavy selling expected for retail margin favorites and SPE winners, potential...

Andrew Jackson

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Aug 2024: Orora, Fuji Soft, J Tower, Seven & I, Taishin/Shin Kong, PropertyGuru

For the month of Aug, 10 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$56bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Japan Morning Connection: HK Futures off the Lows Should Point to Upside for China Related Names

NVDA +4.1% on comments from Hon Hai that demand for Blackwell chips was ‘crazy’, Oil related will follow US lower, HK futures off the lows should...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Oil Through $80 While P&C Take a Hit on Hurricane Milton

​Positive sales numbers and new product launches from SMCI could benefit Nidec; P&C weakness expected due to Hurricane Milton; Oil above $80...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Spike in Oil Positive for Inpex and Refiners

Surge in oil may squeeze refiners with short interests. Negative for Japanese utilities yet to restart reactors. Potential upside for Seven Bank as...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Expect Volatility with Retail and SPE Stocks Under Pressure

​Japan's market set to open weak following US semi-related lead, heavy selling expected for retail margin favorites and SPE winners, potential...

Andrew Jackson

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Aug 2024: Orora, Fuji Soft, J Tower, Seven & I, Taishin/Shin Kong, PropertyGuru

For the month of Aug, 10 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$56bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Positive sales numbers and new product launches from SMCI could benefit Nidec; P&C weakness expected due to Hurricane Milton; Oil above $80...

Japan's market set to open weak following US semi-related lead, heavy selling expected for retail margin favorites and SPE winners, potential...