Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The WTR Consumer Stock Index trailed the Small Cap S&amp;P 600 in 2Q, declining 2.4% versus the 1.1% gain in the broader index.</li><li>The underperformance of our index was mostly due to a larger decline in prospective earnings, coupled with a lesser expansion in its prospective P/E ratio.</li><li>Our index saw prospective earnings decline 7.2% in 2Q versus a 5.0% decline in the S&amp;P 600, while its prospective P/E ratio expanded 0.8x in 2Q to 15.7x versus the 0.9x expansion to 15.3x in the S&amp;P 600.</li></ul>

The WTR Consumer Stock Index trailed the Small Cap S&amp;P 600 in 2Q, declining 2.4% versus the 1.1% gain in the broader index.The underperformance of our index was mostly due to a larger decline in prospective earnings, coupled with a lesser expansion in its prospective P/E ratio.Our index saw prospective earnings decline 7.2% in 2Q versus a 5.0% decline in the S&amp;P 600, while its prospective P/E ratio expanded 0.8x in 2Q to 15.7x versus the 0.9x expansion to 15.3x in the S&amp;P 600.

Consumer Products Monthly WTR Consumer Index Lags S&P 600 in 2Q

Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We normally write these “Workbench” reports in between our larger initiation pieces.  They are intended to offer a window into our short investment process and to highlight potentially interesting names.</li>
<li>This Workbench focuses exclusively on earnings quality shorts.  We continue to work on these names. Today we highlight:</li>
<li>Moderna (MRNA),  Knowles (KN)    Juniper Networks (JNPR)  Upstart Holdings (UPST)  Beauty Health Co (SKIN), Sonos (SONO). Kraft Heinz (KHC), AZEK Co. (AZEK), Energizer Holdings (ENR),  Fox Factory Holding  (FOXF)</li>
</ul>


We normally write these “Workbench” reports in between our larger initiation pieces.  They are intended to offer a window into our short investment process and to highlight potentially interesting names.
This Workbench focuses exclusively on earnings quality shorts.  We continue to work on these names. Today we highlight:
Moderna (MRNA),  Knowles (KN)    Juniper Networks (JNPR)  Upstart Holdings (UPST)  Beauty Health Co (SKIN), Sonos (SONO). Kraft Heinz (KHC), AZEK Co. (AZEK), Energizer Holdings (ENR),  Fox Factory Holding  (FOXF)


Short Ideas on Our Workbench:  Earnings Quality

ZoomInfo Technologies  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This model seeks short-sale candidates among companies that use aggressive accounting and/or exhibit deteriorating quality of earnings.  </li>
<li>They are typically highly idiosyncratic shorts and require thoughtful analyses of upcoming catalysts.  When the company’s issues become well-known, there is often multiple compression as well as a rerating.</li>
<li>These shorts can have high or low betas, valuations based on artificial earnings and exhibit good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings.</li>
</ul>


This model seeks short-sale candidates among companies that use aggressive accounting and/or exhibit deteriorating quality of earnings.  
They are typically highly idiosyncratic shorts and require thoughtful analyses of upcoming catalysts.  When the company’s issues become well-known, there is often multiple compression as well as a rerating.
These shorts can have high or low betas, valuations based on artificial earnings and exhibit good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings.


Earnings Quality Short Candidates: ZoomInfo, Gogo, Elanco Animal Hlth, Sonos, Energizer

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

<ul><li>Sun care grew by 5% in current value terms to reach SGD27 million in 2017.</li><li>Health concerns and the desire for fair skin drives growth.</li><li>The average unit price of sun care rose in 2017.</li><li>Energizer (S) Pte Ltd retained lead in sun care in 2017 with a value share of 36%.</li><li>Sun care is projected to increase at a value CAGR of 4% at constant 2017 prices over the forecast period to reach SGD32 million in 2022.</li></ul>

Sun care grew by 5% in current value terms to reach SGD27 million in 2017.Health concerns and the desire for fair skin drives growth.The average unit price of sun care rose in 2017.Energizer (S) Pte Ltd retained lead in sun care in 2017 with a value share of 36%.Sun care is projected to increase at a value CAGR of 4% at constant 2017 prices over the forecast period to reach SGD32 million in 2022.

M&A Reporting, CTFN

Jonathan Spitzer

M&A Reporting

CTFN

Bringing the marketplace leading coverage of mergers, events, and major corporate actions, CTFN has a team of seasoned reporters from Los Angeles to London, publishing news that advances stories that matter to event-driven investors and deal professionals.

Event-Driven

<p>On March 29, Energizer Holdings and Spectrum Brands announced that the Federal Trade Commission allowed expiration of the waiting period under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Act regarding Energizer’s acquisition of Spectrum Brands’ battery unit. The swift clearance was a surprise to investors and to the antitrust community, as well as to the attorneys working on the deal, sources shared with CTFN.</p>

On March 29, Energizer Holdings and Spectrum Brands announced that the Federal Trade Commission allowed expiration of the waiting period under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Act regarding Energizer’s acquisition of Spectrum Brands’ battery unit. The swift clearance was a surprise to investors and to the antitrust community, as well as to the attorneys working on the deal, sources shared with CTFN.

How a 3-2 Merger Got Done in The Present US Antitrust Environment

United States

Energizer Holdings, Inc. manufactures dry cell batteries and flashlights. The Company offers a full line of products, including alkaline, carbon zinc, miniature, and rechargeable batteries, as well as lighting products. Energizer also manufactures and markets a range of razor and shave related products on a global basis.

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Energizer Holdings (ENR US)

Consumer Products Monthly WTR Consumer Index Lags S&P 600 in 2Q

The WTR Consumer Stock Index trailed the Small Cap S&P 600 in 2Q, declining 2.4% versus the 1.1% gain in the broader index.

Water Tower Research

Short Ideas on Our Workbench: Earnings Quality

Our "Workbench" focuses exclusively on potential earnings quality shorts. We continue to work on these names. Today we highlight ten names of...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Earnings Quality Short Candidates: ZoomInfo, Gogo, Elanco Animal Hlth, Sonos, Energizer

Earnings Quality shorts lead to idiosyncratic alpha. Today, we show our model rankings and highlight ZoomInfo, Gogo, Elanco Animal Hlth, Sonos,...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Sector Capsule: Sun Care in Singapore

Sun care grew by 5% in current value terms to reach SGD27 million in 2017. Health concerns and the desire for fair skin drives growth. The average...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

How a 3-2 Merger Got Done in The Present US Antitrust Environment

On March 29, Energizer Holdings and Spectrum Brands announced that the Federal Trade Commission allowed expiration of the waiting period under the...

CTFN

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