Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning/sentiment overview.</li><li>The mood in equity markets is still good, with major indices stabilizing at levels far above all time highs despite taking some time to swallow hawkish comments from Fed officials.</li><li>Markets seemingly don’t care about the repricing of Fed rates until they hear it from Powell’s mouth or until they get a feeling of true pivot (on the pivot).</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning/sentiment overview.The mood in equity markets is still good, with major indices stabilizing at levels far above all time highs despite taking some time to swallow hawkish comments from Fed officials.Markets seemingly don’t care about the repricing of Fed rates until they hear it from Powell’s mouth or until they get a feeling of true pivot (on the pivot).

Positioning Watch – Reflation bets are back in

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as they both refuse to close below their 20-day MAs or 21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.</li>
<li>Once we do get 2-3 closes below the 20-day MAs on SPX and QQQ, it would mark the beginning of a pullback (a potentially rapid one, at that)</li>
<li>Next supports currently at 4983-5050 on the S&amp;P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24), but anything in the 4800-4930 SPX range is a buyable pullback.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as they both refuse to close below their 20-day MAs or 21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.
Once we do get 2-3 closes below the 20-day MAs on SPX and QQQ, it would mark the beginning of a pullback (a potentially rapid one, at that)
Next supports currently at 4983-5050 on the S&amp;P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24), but anything in the 4800-4930 SPX range is a buyable pullback.


More Long-Term Breakouts in Energy, Utilities, Gold Miners; Bullish Outlook Intact

High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing, Fallacy Alarm

Fallacy Alarm

High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing

High conviction concentrated growth investing. Blends single stock, macro and thematic research into powerful long and short ideas. I am convinced that a robust and comprehensive investment process requires macro and micro considerations. And it requires a deep understanding what you are looking for and what you are invested in. Digitization has changed the dynamics both how businesses operate and how investors compete for returns. Ideas can scale much faster and fail much faster than before. The biggest value creation happens before it can be spotted in financial statements. As a result, my approach can be best summarized as high conviction, high concentration growth investing, embedded into a macro framework built on the realization that our current demographic set-up, monetary paradigm and innovation cycle will likely deliver a strong decade for nominal and real returns of productive assets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Fiscal spending has been the key driver for this bull market as it reaccelerated in late 2022 following the inflation and subsequent interest rate shock.</li><li>This impulse will likely diminish over the next months. It will be replaced by a credit impulse from rate cuts, the first few of which will be very powerful.</li><li>Market mechanics will be accommodating. Leverage in the system is low. In fact, the pain trade is still higher.</li></ul>

Fiscal spending has been the key driver for this bull market as it reaccelerated in late 2022 following the inflation and subsequent interest rate shock.This impulse will likely diminish over the next months. It will be replaced by a credit impulse from rate cuts, the first few of which will be very powerful.Market mechanics will be accommodating. Leverage in the system is low. In fact, the pain trade is still higher.

<ul>
<li>We have discussed for weeks that we will need to see the SPX and Nasdaq 100 close below their 20-day MAs for 2-3 consecutive days in order to get cautious.</li>
<li>This still hasn't happened (short-term trend remains bullish). If we get 2-3 closes below the 20-dayMAs, next support would be 4983-5050 on SPX, $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24)</li>
<li>If some or all of these gaps remain unfilled, it is a sign that bulls remain in control. We are seeing a rotation into commodity Sectors, we highlight several buys</li>
</ul>


We have discussed for weeks that we will need to see the SPX and Nasdaq 100 close below their 20-day MAs for 2-3 consecutive days in order to get cautious.
This still hasn't happened (short-term trend remains bullish). If we get 2-3 closes below the 20-dayMAs, next support would be 4983-5050 on SPX, $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24)
If some or all of these gaps remain unfilled, it is a sign that bulls remain in control. We are seeing a rotation into commodity Sectors, we highlight several buys


Upgrading Materials to Market Weight; Rotation into Commodity Sectors; SPX/NDX Holding Above Support

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt up.</li><li>Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch, where we assess the tradeable themes and discuss our portfolio composition.</li><li>In this revamped version of the series, we will touch upon the developments in our Macro Alpha Portfolio and our Digital Assets Portfolio.</li></ul>

The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt up.Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch, where we assess the tradeable themes and discuss our portfolio composition.In this revamped version of the series, we will touch upon the developments in our Macro Alpha Portfolio and our Digital Assets Portfolio.

Portfolio Watch: What if We Add a Rate Cut to This Fire..

United States

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The ETF tracks the performance of the Energy Select Sector Index.  The ETF holds large-cap U.S. energy stocks. It invests in companies that  develop & produce crude oil & natural gas, provide drilling and other energy related services. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE US)

Positioning Watch – Reflation bets are back in

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning/sentiment overview. The mood in equity markets is still good, with major indices...

Steno Research

More Long-Term Breakouts in Energy, Utilities, Gold Miners; Bullish Outlook Intact

More Long-Term Breakouts in Energy $XLE $RSPG, Utilities $XLU, and Gold Miners $GDX $GDXJ $AEM $RGLD $EGO $SA $IAG; Rally Broadening Out; Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Fallacy Alarm's Elevator Pitch Party

Fiscal spending has been the key driver for this bull market as it reaccelerated in late 2022 following the inflation and subsequent interest rate...

Fallacy Alarm

Upgrading Materials to Market Weight; Rotation into Commodity Sectors; SPX/NDX Holding Above Support

Upgrading Materials $XLB to Market Weight; Rotation into Commodity Sectors $XLE. $SPX and $QQQ holding above gap supports at 4983-5050 and $425...

Vermilion Research

Portfolio Watch: What if We Add a Rate Cut to This Fire..

The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt...

Steno Research

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