Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Consumer Discretionary Select / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe that the bear market lows have already been established.</li>
<li>It remains to be seen whether the indexes will experience a meaningful pullback first, or whether we are already experiencing the initial leg of a new bull market.</li>
<li>Thus far, market indexes have ignored overbought conditions, which is historically a sign of strength during the initial leg of new bull markets.</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe that the bear market lows have already been established.
It remains to be seen whether the indexes will experience a meaningful pullback first, or whether we are already experiencing the initial leg of a new bull market.
Thus far, market indexes have ignored overbought conditions, which is historically a sign of strength during the initial leg of new bull markets.


Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight, Downgrading Energy & Health Care to Market Weight

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>XME and XLE long bets outlined on July 18 are meeting targets to unwind/reverse with XME displaying intermediate potential out of a bull wedge formation.</li>
<li>Weak buy volumes on this rise fit with it being corrective in nature (vulnerable bounce), calling for a fresh bear test into September.</li>
<li>XME bull wedge brewing and 40 macro support stand out as a macro bull set up from September into year-end.</li>
</ul>


XME and XLE long bets outlined on July 18 are meeting targets to unwind/reverse with XME displaying intermediate potential out of a bull wedge formation.
Weak buy volumes on this rise fit with it being corrective in nature (vulnerable bounce), calling for a fresh bear test into September.
XME bull wedge brewing and 40 macro support stand out as a macro bull set up from September into year-end.


<ul>
<li>XME (metals/mining) and XLE are oversold rotation long plays for a rally off noteworthy support.</li>
<li>SPX rally stall near 3,900 near term resistance (dip/rally) must be factored into commodity price action.</li>
<li>USD is due for a marginal pullback that will provide fuel for oversold commodities. We like the AUD for a rally to 0.70.</li>
</ul>


XME (metals/mining) and XLE are oversold rotation long plays for a rally off noteworthy support.
SPX rally stall near 3,900 near term resistance (dip/rally) must be factored into commodity price action.
USD is due for a marginal pullback that will provide fuel for oversold commodities. We like the AUD for a rally to 0.70.


High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Last week, I spent some time outlining how incoming data appears to beginning to show that certain overheated pockets of the economy are seeing signs of moderation and may be slowly returning to pre-pandemic price trends.</li><li>With the Federal Reserve hiking 75bps this past week, most of the market commentary and analysis I have seen focuses on how many 75bps hikes the Fed needs to do the rest of the year in order to tame inflation.</li><li>After this last interest rate hike, commentators are almost unanimously convinced the Federal Reserve will tighten us into a recession in order to shakeout inflation and that a “soft landing” just is not possible because the Fed was already so far behind the curve with its monetary policy stance. </li></ul>

Last week, I spent some time outlining how incoming data appears to beginning to show that certain overheated pockets of the economy are seeing signs of moderation and may be slowly returning to pre-pandemic price trends.With the Federal Reserve hiking 75bps this past week, most of the market commentary and analysis I have seen focuses on how many 75bps hikes the Fed needs to do the rest of the year in order to tame inflation.After this last interest rate hike, commentators are almost unanimously convinced the Federal Reserve will tighten us into a recession in order to shakeout inflation and that a “soft landing” just is not possible because the Fed was already so far behind the curve with its monetary policy stance. 

These days, it seems to me that the business media and Twitter is all consumed with predicting when a U.S. economic recession will occur coupled with lots of predictions of whether each strong relief bounce we have in the market is “the bottom”.This past week, big box retailers like Target and Walmart saw big drawdowns after margins were impacted by rising shipping and labor costs while facing extremely difficult year-over-year comparatives.Given the current market drawdown, I also get the sense now that the emerging consensus and narrative of an imminent “crash” recession is what I call “one side of the boat” thinking which the market has a habit of doing the opposite.

These days, it seems to me that the business media and Twitter is all consumed with predicting when a U.S. economic recession will occur coupled with lots of predictions of whether each strong relief bounce we have in the market is “the bottom”.This past week, big box retailers like Target and Walmart saw big drawdowns after margins were impacted by rising shipping and labor costs while facing extremely difficult year-over-year comparatives.Given the current market drawdown, I also get the sense now that the emerging consensus and narrative of an imminent “crash” recession is what I call “one side of the boat” thinking which the market has a habit of doing the opposite.

United States

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The ETF tracks the performance of the Energy Select Sector Index.  The ETF holds large-cap U.S. energy stocks. It invests in companies that  develop & produce crude oil & natural gas, provide drilling and other energy related services. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE US)

Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight, Downgrading Energy & Health Care to Market Weight

Upgrading Discretionary $XLY to Overweight, Downgrading Energy $XLE & Health Care $XLV to Market Weight; Many indexes with major bullish...

Vermilion Research

XME and XLE Longs Meeting Targets

XME and XLE long bets outlined on July 18 are meeting targets to unwind/reverse with XME displaying intermediate potential out of a bull wedge...

Thomas Schroeder

XME, XLE Oversold Trade

XME (metals/mining) and XLE are oversold rotation long plays for a rally off noteworthy support. USD dip will provide rally fuel. We like the AUD...

Thomas Schroeder

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 6/20

Last week, I spent some time outlining how incoming data appears to beginning to show that certain overheated pockets of the economy are seeing...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 5/23

These days, it seems to me that the business media and Twitter is all consumed with predicting when a U.S. economic recession will occur coupled...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

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