Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We previously discussed our belief that equities were in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on S&amp;P 500</li>
<li>And, as you will see below, countless other indexes and Sectors are testing important resistance levels. We continue to expect 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500 to cap upside</li>
<li>Buy ideas highlighted within defensives, including Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Communications: CMCSA, CHTR, UL, KHC, CAG, SJM, CPB, LLY, MRK, and NVO</li>
</ul>


We previously discussed our belief that equities were in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on S&amp;P 500
And, as you will see below, countless other indexes and Sectors are testing important resistance levels. We continue to expect 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500 to cap upside
Buy ideas highlighted within defensives, including Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Communications: CMCSA, CHTR, UL, KHC, CAG, SJM, CPB, LLY, MRK, and NVO


Many Indexes/Sectors Testing Resistance; Limited Upside From Here; Buys in Staples and Health Care

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late November we have been discussing our expectations for a pullback, while recommending shifting exposure to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Health Care) and/or taking profits.</li>
<li>The pullback is finally happening following breaks below 3910 support on the S&amp;P 500, $177.50 support on the Russell 2000 (IWM), and $279 support on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). </li>
<li>These levels are now resistance, while major resistance remains at 200-dayMAs/YTD downtrends. Stick with defensives/cash as we believe a test of the YTD lows on the aforementioned indexes is likely.</li>
</ul>


Since late November we have been discussing our expectations for a pullback, while recommending shifting exposure to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Health Care) and/or taking profits.
The pullback is finally happening following breaks below 3910 support on the S&amp;P 500, $177.50 support on the Russell 2000 (IWM), and $279 support on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). 
These levels are now resistance, while major resistance remains at 200-dayMAs/YTD downtrends. Stick with defensives/cash as we believe a test of the YTD lows on the aforementioned indexes is likely.


Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Overweight; Stay Defensive, Expecting Test of YTD Lows on SPX

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>A few weeks back, I posted a chart showing the descending weekly trend line of the S&amp;P 500 index to remind myself that the trend reminds down until price confirms a change in the power trend.</li><li>This week, notable events include the Core CPI print on Tuesday, Fed press release and meeting on Wednesday, retail sales on Thursday, and S&amp;P flash Services and Manufacturing PMI on Friday.</li><li>As of today, while a favorable inflation and Fed meeting could change things, the rejection of the S&amp;P 500 again at the descending trend line and a hold of the 200 day moving average, suggests that the next leg lower could be in order similar to other bear market rallies so far this year.</li></ul>

A few weeks back, I posted a chart showing the descending weekly trend line of the S&amp;P 500 index to remind myself that the trend reminds down until price confirms a change in the power trend.This week, notable events include the Core CPI print on Tuesday, Fed press release and meeting on Wednesday, retail sales on Thursday, and S&amp;P flash Services and Manufacturing PMI on Friday.As of today, while a favorable inflation and Fed meeting could change things, the rejection of the S&amp;P 500 again at the descending trend line and a hold of the 200 day moving average, suggests that the next leg lower could be in order similar to other bear market rallies so far this year.

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since early-October we have discussed our expectation for a bear rally, targeting the 200-day MAs on the $IWM and $SPX; targets were hit (within 0.5% of hitting on SPX).</li>
<li>We are now seeing short-term uptrend breaks on the IWM and the DJIA; this is a good time to get defensive and/or take profits, as the 1.5-month rally appears over.</li>
<li>We expect more weakness in the weeks ahead, and we cannot rule out another test of the 2022 lows.</li>
</ul>


Since early-October we have discussed our expectation for a bear rally, targeting the 200-day MAs on the $IWM and $SPX; targets were hit (within 0.5% of hitting on SPX).
We are now seeing short-term uptrend breaks on the IWM and the DJIA; this is a good time to get defensive and/or take profits, as the 1.5-month rally appears over.
We expect more weakness in the weeks ahead, and we cannot rule out another test of the 2022 lows.


Time to Get Defensive After 1.5-Month Uptrend Breaks; High Yield Spreads Widening Much Like Mid-Aug.

<ul>
<li>Despite $IWM already hitting our price target at 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, and the $SPX getting to within 1% of our target at 200-day MA, we see this 1.5-month rally continuing.</li>
<li>We expect further upside as long as the 1.5-month uptrend channels remain intact on the SPX and IWM, and we believe that breakouts above their 200-day MAs could be coming</li>
<li>Breakouts above their 200-day MAs that would likely signal the end to this bear market.</li>
</ul>


Despite $IWM already hitting our price target at 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, and the $SPX getting to within 1% of our target at 200-day MA, we see this 1.5-month rally continuing.
We expect further upside as long as the 1.5-month uptrend channels remain intact on the SPX and IWM, and we believe that breakouts above their 200-day MAs could be coming
Breakouts above their 200-day MAs that would likely signal the end to this bear market.


Small- And Mid-Cap Indexes Poised to Break Out?; Further Upside Expected; Buys Within Cyclicals

United States

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The ETF tracks the performance of the Energy Select Sector Index.  The ETF holds large-cap U.S. energy stocks. It invests in companies that  develop & produce crude oil & natural gas, provide drilling and other energy related services. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE US)

Many Indexes/Sectors Testing Resistance; Limited Upside From Here; Buys in Staples and Health Care

We continue to expect 4100-4165 on the $SPX to cap upside. Many other indexes and Sectors are also testing important resistance levels dating back...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Overweight; Stay Defensive, Expecting Test of YTD Lows on SPX

Since late November we have discussed our expectations for a pullback, recommending shifting exposure to defensives $XLP $XLV $XLU and/or taking...

Vermilion Research

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 12/12

A few weeks back, I posted a chart showing the descending weekly trend line of the S&P 500 index to remind myself that the trend reminds down until...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Time to Get Defensive After 1.5-Month Uptrend Breaks; High Yield Spreads Widening Much Like Mid-Aug.

Our targets for this bear rally have been hit, which were the 200-day MAs on $IWM and $SPX (within 0.5%). Now seeing short-term uptrend breaks on...

Vermilion Research

Small- And Mid-Cap Indexes Poised to Break Out?; Further Upside Expected; Buys Within Cyclicals

Despite $IWM already hitting our price target at its 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, & the $SPX getting to within 1% of our target at its 200-day MA, we...

Vermilion Research

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