Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> in June but there are capping changes for the Select Sector indices and the Equal Weight Index.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade is US$17.4bn with a big chunk from the Equal Weight Index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/communication-services-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27534:1" rel="noopener">Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/energy-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27537:1" rel="noopener">Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE US)</a>. </li>
<li>The largest flows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exxon-mobil-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:811:1" rel="noopener">Exxon Mobil</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33361:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chevron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11091:1" rel="noopener">Chevron Corp</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/visa-inc-class-a-shares" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8707:1" rel="noopener">Visa</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackstone-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27166:1" rel="noopener">Blackstone</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/live-nation-entertainment-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6893:1" rel="noopener">Live Nation Entertainment</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tko-group-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40463:1" rel="noopener">TKO Group Holdings</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dell-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32189:1" rel="noopener">Dell Technologies</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/omnicom-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15775:1" rel="noopener">Omnicom Group</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) in June but there are capping changes for the Select Sector indices and the Equal Weight Index.
The round-trip trade is US$17.4bn with a big chunk from the Equal Weight Index, Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US) and Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE US). 
The largest flows are expected in Exxon Mobil, Alphabet, Chevron Corp, Visa, Blackstone, Live Nation Entertainment, Meta, Broadcom, TKO Group Holdings, Dell Technologies and Omnicom Group.


Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance Preview: US$17bn Round-Trip Trade

HarmoniQ Insights

William Mann

Independent Insight Provider

At HarmoniQ Insights, we empower investors to enhance their investment strategies by integrating cutting-edge quantitative research processes and technologies. Our solutions provide access to leading quantitative data providers and services, tailored to align with each client’s unique goals. By bridging the gap between traditional investment approaches and advanced data-driven methods, we help clients gain a competitive edge through innovation in both process and technology.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>
Novel Twist Steepening Analysis: Empirically validated sector rotation opportunities in the current yield curve environment with rising long-term rates and falling short-term rates.</li>
<li>
Integrated Machine Learning Framework: Advanced ML techniques identify non-linear macro-asset relationships traditional models miss, enhancing strategy robustness during regime transitions.</li>
<li>
Actionable Cross-Asset Implementation: Detailed portfolio methodologies integrating findings across asset classes with specific trade recommendations for Q2 2025.</li>
</ul>



Novel Twist Steepening Analysis: Empirically validated sector rotation opportunities in the current yield curve environment with rising long-term rates and falling short-term rates.

Integrated Machine Learning Framework: Advanced ML techniques identify non-linear macro-asset relationships traditional models miss, enhancing strategy robustness during regime transitions.

Actionable Cross-Asset Implementation: Detailed portfolio methodologies integrating findings across asset classes with specific trade recommendations for Q2 2025.


Advanced Look: Navigating the New Macro Landscape Through Quantitative Alpha Generation Strategies

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Occidental’s Q1 revenue and EPS are projected to rise 14.4% and 23.8% YoY, driven by strong Permian production and improved oil and gas price realisations.</li>
<li>Occidental’s average realised global oil price rose 1.9% QoQ, while NGL and natural gas prices surged 19% and 63.1%, respectively.</li>
<li>Occidental’s average index prices for WTI and Brent rose 1.6% and 1.2% QoQ, respectively, while natural gas prices saw a sharp 36.1% increase.</li>
</ul>


Occidental’s Q1 revenue and EPS are projected to rise 14.4% and 23.8% YoY, driven by strong Permian production and improved oil and gas price realisations.
Occidental’s average realised global oil price rose 1.9% QoQ, while NGL and natural gas prices surged 19% and 63.1%, respectively.
Occidental’s average index prices for WTI and Brent rose 1.6% and 1.2% QoQ, respectively, while natural gas prices saw a sharp 36.1% increase.


[Earnings Preview] Better Oil and Gas Prices to Lift Occidental’s Revenue Amid Persistent Headwinds

<ul>
<li>BP’s Q4 revenue and EPS are projected to decline by 7.4% YoY and 43.3%, respectively, due to lower hydrocarbon output, weaker gas marketing, and subdued trading results.</li>
<li>BP expects oil production earnings to remain flat sequentially, with refining margins adding USD 100-300 million to Q1 earnings, while oil trading performance is anticipated to remain unchanged.</li>
<li>The company expects net debt to increase by USD 4 billion from the previous quarter’s USD 23 billion, citing seasonal inventory builds and timing of payments.</li>
</ul>


BP’s Q4 revenue and EPS are projected to decline by 7.4% YoY and 43.3%, respectively, due to lower hydrocarbon output, weaker gas marketing, and subdued trading results.
BP expects oil production earnings to remain flat sequentially, with refining margins adding USD 100-300 million to Q1 earnings, while oil trading performance is anticipated to remain unchanged.
The company expects net debt to increase by USD 4 billion from the previous quarter’s USD 23 billion, citing seasonal inventory builds and timing of payments.


[Earnings Preview] BP’s Outlook Dims with Lower Hydrocarbon Output and Softer Trading Results

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Crude prices plunged to multi-year lows amid rising global supply and trade tensions, stoking demand fears and slowing U.S. shale activity.</li>
<li>Oilfield services firms are underperforming peers as falling rig counts and steel tariffs drive up costs and erode margins.</li>
<li>With fixed-cost-heavy models and fewer upstream clients, the sector faces amplified downside risks and limited pricing power in the near term.</li>
</ul>


Crude prices plunged to multi-year lows amid rising global supply and trade tensions, stoking demand fears and slowing U.S. shale activity.
Oilfield services firms are underperforming peers as falling rig counts and steel tariffs drive up costs and erode margins.
With fixed-cost-heavy models and fewer upstream clients, the sector faces amplified downside risks and limited pricing power in the near term.


Oilfield Services Industry to Bear the Brunt of Falling Oil Prices

United States

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The ETF tracks the performance of the Energy Select Sector Index.  The ETF holds large-cap U.S. energy stocks. It invests in companies that  develop & produce crude oil & natural gas, provide drilling and other energy related services. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE US)

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance Preview: US$17bn Round-Trip Trade

Capping changes for the Select Sector indices and Equal Weight Index will result in a round-trip trade of US$17.4bn. There are some stocks with...

Brian Freitas

Advanced Look: Navigating the New Macro Landscape Through Quantitative Alpha Generation Strategies

🔓 UNLOCKING RESEARCH: Systematic Macro Alpha Generation We are releasing our comprehensive macro investing research to SSRN! https:/...

William Mann

[Earnings Preview] Better Oil and Gas Prices to Lift Occidental’s Revenue Amid Persistent Headwinds

Occidental's Q1 revenue and EPS expected to rise significantly YoY due to strong Permian production and improved oil and gas prices.

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] BP’s Outlook Dims with Lower Hydrocarbon Output and Softer Trading Results

BP's Q4 revenue and EPS to decline due to lower output and weaker trading results, with flat oil production earnings and increased net debt...

Mint Finance

Oilfield Services Industry to Bear the Brunt of Falling Oil Prices

Crude prices drop due to supply surge and trade tensions, impacting oilfield services firms with rising costs and limited pricing power.

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance Preview: US$17bn Round-Trip Trade

Capping changes for the Select Sector indices and Equal Weight Index will result in a round-trip trade of US$17.4bn. There are some stocks with...

Brian Freitas

Advanced Look: Navigating the New Macro Landscape Through Quantitative Alpha Generation Strategies

🔓 UNLOCKING RESEARCH: Systematic Macro Alpha Generation We are releasing our comprehensive macro investing research to SSRN! https:/...

William Mann

[Earnings Preview] Better Oil and Gas Prices to Lift Occidental’s Revenue Amid Persistent Headwinds

​Occidental's Q1 revenue and EPS expected to rise significantly YoY due to strong Permian production and improved oil and gas prices.

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] BP’s Outlook Dims with Lower Hydrocarbon Output and Softer Trading Results

​BP's Q4 revenue and EPS to decline due to lower output and weaker trading results, with flat oil production earnings and increased net debt...

Mint Finance

Oilfield Services Industry to Bear the Brunt of Falling Oil Prices

​Crude prices drop due to supply surge and trade tensions, impacting oilfield services firms with rising costs and limited pricing power.

Mint Finance

Occidental's Q1 revenue and EPS expected to rise significantly YoY due to strong Permian production and improved oil and gas prices.

BP's Q4 revenue and EPS to decline due to lower output and weaker trading results, with flat oil production earnings and increased net debt...

Crude prices drop due to supply surge and trade tensions, impacting oilfield services firms with rising costs and limited pricing power.