External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Equity Bottom-Up

Fauji Fertilizer Company / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We have revised up our earnings estimates for the fertilizer sector by an average of ~13% for 2026E-2028F.</li><li>Improved urea offtakes: Our upward revision in sales volumes reflects stronger-than-expected agricultural activity and resilient domestic demand amidst improved crop prices.</li><li>Urea price revisions: Besides rolling back discounts of Rs150-400/bag (varying company wise), we have also increased MRP of urea following hike of Rs100/bag, marking the first hike in last two years.</li></ul>

We have revised up our earnings estimates for the fertilizer sector by an average of ~13% for 2026E-2028F.Improved urea offtakes: Our upward revision in sales volumes reflects stronger-than-expected agricultural activity and resilient domestic demand amidst improved crop prices.Urea price revisions: Besides rolling back discounts of Rs150-400/bag (varying company wise), we have also increased MRP of urea following hike of Rs100/bag, marking the first hike in last two years.

Pakistan Fertilizer Sector: Earnings Revised Upward; Overweight Maintained

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

In this report we provide a synopsis of EM markets. We also scour the EM universe for attractive and actionable opportunities, highlighting opportunities within India's SENSEX, global energy and materials sectors, and Asian banks.

In this report we provide a synopsis of EM markets. We also scour the EM universe for attractive and actionable opportunities, highlighting opportunities within India's SENSEX, global energy and materials sectors, and Asian banks.

Price and relative strength trends continue to improve for our international equal-weight Health Care Sector. We recommend adding exposure, and provide charts on numerous actionable stocks across global markets. We also highlight actionable stocks within Materials, beyond metals &amp; mining stocks, that are outperforming.

Price and relative strength trends continue to improve for our international equal-weight Health Care Sector. We recommend adding exposure, and provide charts on numerous actionable stocks across global markets. We also highlight actionable stocks within Materials, beyond metals &amp; mining stocks, that are outperforming. 

Global Strategy: Opportunities in Health Care & Materials Stocks

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Pakistan’s fertilizer sector started 2018 with robust profitability growth of 47% YoY due to  increase in urea sales volume by ~43% YoY to 1.2mn tons. DAP sales also recorded significant growth of 14% compared to last year, with volumes clocking in at 517k tons vs. 447k tons.</li>
<li>Higher urea sales is attributed to 1) continuation of subsidized prices in 1Q2018 at Rs1,400 per bag, 2) improved purchasing power of farmers amid better prices of rice and cotton crop (while, sugarcane payment to farmers…</li>
</ul>


Pakistan’s fertilizer sector started 2018 with robust profitability growth of 47% YoY due to  increase in urea sales volume by ~43% YoY to 1.2mn tons. DAP sales also recorded significant growth of 14% compared to last year, with volumes clocking in at 517k tons vs. 447k tons.
Higher urea sales is attributed to 1) continuation of subsidized prices in 1Q2018 at Rs1,400 per bag, 2) improved purchasing power of farmers amid better prices of rice and cotton crop (while, sugarcane payment to farmers…


Pakistan Fertilizer: Sector Earnings up by 47% YoY in 1Q2018

<ul><li>Engro Connect reported revenue of Rs19bn up by 3.8x YoY in 1Q2026, driven by an increase in site count to 15,331. While, profitability stood at Rs2.1bn up by 3.5x YoY. As per the management, profitability includes certain statutory adjustments related to long-term leases, with the impact of unwinding reflected in earnings.</li><li>Management also highlighted that it expects gradual growth in 5G usage rather than a rapid uptick, given the limited availability of 5G enabled handsets.</li><li>EFERT’s sales rose by 27% YoY to Rs38bn, while profitability increased by 14% YoY to Rs3.3bn in 1Q2026, mainly driven by higher urea and DAP offtake amid improved farmer economics and better water availability during the cropping season. To note, urea volumes increased from 260KT in 1Q2025 to 279KT in 1Q2026. The company expects pressure in May due to elevated input costs, particularly on account of rising DAP prices.</li></ul>

Engro Connect reported revenue of Rs19bn up by 3.8x YoY in 1Q2026, driven by an increase in site count to 15,331. While, profitability stood at Rs2.1bn up by 3.5x YoY. As per the management, profitability includes certain statutory adjustments related to long-term leases, with the impact of unwinding reflected in earnings.Management also highlighted that it expects gradual growth in 5G usage rather than a rapid uptick, given the limited availability of 5G enabled handsets.EFERT’s sales rose by 27% YoY to Rs38bn, while profitability increased by 14% YoY to Rs3.3bn in 1Q2026, mainly driven by higher urea and DAP offtake amid improved farmer economics and better water availability during the cropping season. To note, urea volumes increased from 260KT in 1Q2025 to 279KT in 1Q2026. The company expects pressure in May due to elevated input costs, particularly on account of rising DAP prices.

Topline Flash Note: Engro Holdings (ENGROH) –Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways

Pakistan

Engro Fertilizers Limited is a fertilizer manufacturing and marketing company with products that focus on balanced crop nutrition and increased yield.

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Engro Fertilizer (EFERT PA)

Pakistan Fertilizer Sector: Earnings Revised Upward; Overweight Maintained

We have revised up our earnings estimates for the fertilizer sector by an average of ~13% for 2026E-2028F. Improved urea offtakes: Our upward...

Topline Securities

EM Strategy: Remain Overweight India

In this report we provide a synopsis of EM markets. We also scour the EM universe for attractive and actionable opportunities, highlighting...

Vermilion Research

Global Strategy: Opportunities in Health Care & Materials Stocks

Price and relative strength trends continue to improve for our international equal-weight Health Care Sector.We recommend adding exposure, and...

Vermilion Research

Pakistan Fertilizer: Sector Earnings up by 47% YoY in 1Q2018

Pakistan’s fertilizer sector started 2018 with robust profitability growth of 47% YoY due to increase in urea sales volume by ~43% YoY to 1.2mn...

Topline Securities

Topline Flash Note: Engro Holdings (ENGROH) –Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways

Engro Connect reported revenue of Rs19bn up by 3.8x YoY in 1Q2026, driven by an increase in site count to 15,331. While, profitability stood at...

Topline Securities

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