External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Topline Fertilizer universe earnings are expected to increase by 17% YoY and 67% QoQ in 2Q2025 due to recovery in Urea and DAP offtakes despite weak farm economics and water shortage.</li><li>Urea offtake is anticipated to increase by 3% YoY and 14% QoQ to 1.25mn tons, while DAP offtakes are expected to rise by 16% YoY and 99% QoQ to 298k tons in 2Q2025.</li><li>Engro Fertilizers is forecasted to post consolidated earnings of Rs4.25/share, up 4.3x YoY in 2Q2025, driven by higher urea and DAP offtake.</li></ul>

Topline Fertilizer universe earnings are expected to increase by 17% YoY and 67% QoQ in 2Q2025 due to recovery in Urea and DAP offtakes despite weak farm economics and water shortage.Urea offtake is anticipated to increase by 3% YoY and 14% QoQ to 1.25mn tons, while DAP offtakes are expected to rise by 16% YoY and 99% QoQ to 298k tons in 2Q2025.Engro Fertilizers is forecasted to post consolidated earnings of Rs4.25/share, up 4.3x YoY in 2Q2025, driven by higher urea and DAP offtake.

Pakistan Fertilizers: Profits likely to up 17% YoY in 2Q2025; Market Weight Maintained

<ul><li>Pakistan Urea sales in July 2025 is expected to clock in at 608k tons, down 1% YoY compared to 612k tons in Jul 2024 mainly due to poor farm economics and monsoon season. While on MoM basis, urea sales has fallen 19% amidst end of Rabi season.</li><li>This will take 7M2025 Urea offtake to 2.96mn tons, down 19% YoY compared to 3.65mn tons in 7M2024, mainly due to weak farm economics as mentioned above.</li><li>The closing inventory of urea is expected around 1.28mn tons in Jul 2025, down from 1.32mn tons in Jun 2025.</li></ul>

Pakistan Urea sales in July 2025 is expected to clock in at 608k tons, down 1% YoY compared to 612k tons in Jul 2024 mainly due to poor farm economics and monsoon season. While on MoM basis, urea sales has fallen 19% amidst end of Rabi season.This will take 7M2025 Urea offtake to 2.96mn tons, down 19% YoY compared to 3.65mn tons in 7M2024, mainly due to weak farm economics as mentioned above.The closing inventory of urea is expected around 1.28mn tons in Jul 2025, down from 1.32mn tons in Jun 2025.

Pakistan Fertilizers: Urea sales for Jul 2025 up 4% MoM and down 19% YoY; Inventory at 1.28mn tons

<ul><li>Urea sales in June 2025 increased by 39% MoM and 21% YoY, reaching 582K tons.</li><li>First half of 2025 showed a decrease in Urea offtake by 23% YoY, driven by weak farm economics and water shortages.</li><li>The closing Urea inventory in June 2025 is expected to reach the highest level in 97 months, with significant inventories held by Engro Fertilizers, Fauji Fertilizer Company, and FATIMA.</li></ul>

Urea sales in June 2025 increased by 39% MoM and 21% YoY, reaching 582K tons.First half of 2025 showed a decrease in Urea offtake by 23% YoY, driven by weak farm economics and water shortages.The closing Urea inventory in June 2025 is expected to reach the highest level in 97 months, with significant inventories held by Engro Fertilizers, Fauji Fertilizer Company, and FATIMA.

Pakistan Fertilizers: Urea Sales for Jun-2025 at 582K Tons, up 39% MoM and 21% YoY

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>KSE-100 index companies posted earnings of Rs409bn in 3QFY25, up 2% YoY, while excluding Banks, profitability declined by 5% YoY to Rs243bn.</li><li>The banking sector's earnings increased by 14% YoY to Rs166bn, driven by an increase in both Net Interest Income and Non-Interest Income.</li><li>KSE 100 index companies announced cash dividends of Rs119bn, down 6% YoY, translating into a 29% dividend payout in 3QFY25.</li></ul>

KSE-100 index companies posted earnings of Rs409bn in 3QFY25, up 2% YoY, while excluding Banks, profitability declined by 5% YoY to Rs243bn.The banking sector's earnings increased by 14% YoY to Rs166bn, driven by an increase in both Net Interest Income and Non-Interest Income.KSE 100 index companies announced cash dividends of Rs119bn, down 6% YoY, translating into a 29% dividend payout in 3QFY25.

Pakistan Strategy – Corporate Profitability in 3QFY25; Earnings up 2%

<ul><li>Pakistan Urea sales in Mar-2025 is expected to clock in at 308k tons, down 54% YoY compared to 671k tons in Mar-2024.</li><li>Similarly, Urea sales is expected to decline by 11% MoM. This will take 1Q2025 offtake to 1.1mn tons, down 40% YoY compared to 1.8mn tons in 1Q2024.</li><li>This is likely to take closing inventory of Urea to be around 837k tons in Mar-2025, up from 536k tons in Feb-2025.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Pakistan Urea sales in Mar-2025 is expected to clock in at 308k tons, down 54% YoY compared to 671k tons in Mar-2024.Similarly, Urea sales is expected to decline by 11% MoM. This will take 1Q2025 offtake to 1.1mn tons, down 40% YoY compared to 1.8mn tons in 1Q2024.This is likely to take closing inventory of Urea to be around 837k tons in Mar-2025, up from 536k tons in Feb-2025.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pakistan Fertilizers: Urea sales for Mar-2025 is expected to clock in at 308K tons, down 54% YoY

Pakistan

Engro Fertilizers Limited is a fertilizer manufacturing and marketing company with products that focus on balanced crop nutrition and increased yield.

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Engro Fertilizer (EFERT PA)

Pakistan Fertilizers: Profits likely to up 17% YoY in 2Q2025; Market Weight Maintained

Topline Fertilizer universe earnings are expected to increase by 17% YoY and 67% QoQ in 2Q2025 due to recovery in Urea and DAP offtakes despite...

Topline Securities

Pakistan Fertilizers: Urea sales for Jul 2025 up 4% MoM and down 19% YoY; Inventory at 1.28mn tons

Pakistan Urea sales in July 2025 is expected to clock in at 608k tons, down 1% YoY compared to 612k tons in Jul 2024 mainly due to poor farm...

Topline Securities

Pakistan Fertilizers: Urea Sales for Jun-2025 at 582K Tons, up 39% MoM and 21% YoY

Urea sales in June 2025 increased by 39% MoM and 21% YoY, reaching 582K tons. First half of 2025 showed a decrease in Urea offtake by 23% YoY,...

Topline Securities

Pakistan Strategy – Corporate Profitability in 3QFY25; Earnings up 2%

KSE-100 index companies posted earnings of Rs409bn in 3QFY25, up 2% YoY, while excluding Banks, profitability declined by 5% YoY to Rs243bn. The...

Topline Securities

Pakistan Fertilizers: Urea sales for Mar-2025 is expected to clock in at 308K tons, down 54% YoY

Pakistan Urea sales in Mar-2025 is expected to clock in at 308k tons, down 54% YoY compared to 671k tons in Mar-2024. Similarly, Urea sales is...

Topline Securities

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