Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We had a near-term bullish outlook on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) from 4/22/25 to 11/19/25.</li>
<li>After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 report last week, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 report).</li>
<li>We'll stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ hold. We believe SPX,QQQ, and IWM are in a new "lockout rally"</li>
</ul>


We had a near-term bullish outlook on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) from 4/22/25 to 11/19/25.
After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 report last week, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 report).
We'll stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ hold. We believe SPX,QQQ, and IWM are in a new "lockout rally"


New Lockout Rally Underway on SPX, QQQ, and IWM? Yes. Here Is Why. Still Bullish

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.</li>
<li>For now, we continue to expect support to show up at the 4-month uptrend, which generally coincides with the 20-day MA.</li>
<li>Speculative growth themes and metals/mining (GDX, XME) remain leadership, which we expect to continue through year-end and into the early part of 2026</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.
For now, we continue to expect support to show up at the 4-month uptrend, which generally coincides with the 20-day MA.
Speculative growth themes and metals/mining (GDX, XME) remain leadership, which we expect to continue through year-end and into the early part of 2026


S&P 500 and Russell 2000 4+ Month Uptrends Intact; Stick With Growth Themes and Metals/Mining

<ul>
<li>In spite of last week's hotter-than-expected inflation reports, the Russell 2000 (IWM) outperformed relative to the SPX and QQQ, and ended the week at YTD weekly closing highs.</li>
<li>The fact that small- and mid-caps outperformed during a week with two hot inflation reports is a sign we could see more outperformance in the weeks/months ahead.</li>
<li>Adding to the risk-on theme, the DXY displays a false breakout at $104.60-$104.70. Our bullish outlook that we have had since early November 2023 remains intact. </li>
</ul>


In spite of last week's hotter-than-expected inflation reports, the Russell 2000 (IWM) outperformed relative to the SPX and QQQ, and ended the week at YTD weekly closing highs.
The fact that small- and mid-caps outperformed during a week with two hot inflation reports is a sign we could see more outperformance in the weeks/months ahead.
Adding to the risk-on theme, the DXY displays a false breakout at $104.60-$104.70. Our bullish outlook that we have had since early November 2023 remains intact. 


Small Caps Outperform Despite "Hot" Inflation Reports; Equal-Weighted S&P 500 Breakout

<p>Market dynamics remain largely positive and there continues to be an absence of breakdowns across all Sectors and the major averages. As a result, we continue to see a mixed market environment, but we remain constructive overall with the S&amp;P 500 holding above short-term support at the 50-day moving average and 4056.</p>

Market dynamics remain largely positive and there continues to be an absence of breakdowns across all Sectors and the major averages. As a result, we continue to see a mixed market environment, but we remain constructive overall with the S&amp;P 500 holding above short-term support at the 50-day moving average and 4056.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Growth Improving, But Can It Last?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lufax-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29690:1" rel="noopener">Lufax Holdings (LU US)</a> is a leading personal financial services platform in China with a focus on retail borrowing and wealth management. Lufax has launched its IPO at a price range of $11.50-13.50 per ADS to raise net proceeds of $2,109 million at the mid-point of the IPO price range. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, Lufax will command a market cap of $30.5 billion which is around 20% lower than the 2018 Series C round valuation of $39 billion. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lufax-ipo-initiation-lost-in-transition" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our initiation note</a>, we stated that while Lufax has several attractive attributes, it is a business in transition which magnifies the risk profile. Overall, our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive and we would be inclined to give the IPO a pass.</p></div></div></div>

Lufax Holdings (LU US) is a leading personal financial services platform in China with a focus on retail borrowing and wealth management. Lufax has launched its IPO at a price range of $11.50-13.50 per ADS to raise net proceeds of $2,109 million at the mid-point of the IPO price range. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, Lufax will command a market cap of $30.5 billion which is around 20% lower than the 2018 Series C round valuation of $39 billion. In our initiation note, we stated that while Lufax has several attractive attributes, it is a business in transition which magnifies the risk profile. Overall, our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive and we would be inclined to give the IPO a pass.

United States

Enova International, Inc. offers online financial services to people who have bank accounts but have limited access to traditional consumer credit from banks, thrifts, credit card companies and other lenders. The Company offers short-term consumer and installment consumer loans in the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, and Canada.

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Enova International (ENVA US)

New Lockout Rally Underway on SPX, QQQ, and IWM? Yes. Here Is Why. Still Bullish

New Lockout Rally Underway on $SPX, $QQQ, and $IWM? Yes. The last time we made this same claim was in our 5/6/25 Compass report. Still Near-Term...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 and Russell 2000 4+ Month Uptrends Intact; Stick With Growth Themes and Metals/Mining

S&P 500 and Russell 2000 4+ Month Uptrends Intact; Stick With Growth Themes and Metals/Mining $GDX $XME $ARKG $ARKK $ARKQ $ARKX $ARKW $ARKF $GRAL...

Vermilion Research

Small Caps Outperform Despite "Hot" Inflation Reports; Equal-Weighted S&P 500 Breakout

Small Caps $IWM $VXF Outperform Despite "Hot" Inflation Reports; Equal-Weighted S&P 500 $RSP Breakout; U.S. Dollar $DXY Failed Breakout at $104.70;...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Growth Improving, But Can It Last?

We continue to see a mixed market environment, but we remain constructive overall with the S&P 500 holding above short-term support at the 50-day...

Vermilion Research

Lufax IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive and we would be inclined to give the IPO a pass.

Arun George

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