Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/filo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:42545:1" rel="noopener">Filo (FIL CN)</a> by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lundin-mining-corp-92352503-3781-4fcb-a4db-62e6f6343783" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25356:1" rel="noopener">Lundin Mining (LUN CN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd-832e22a7-7a1d-49cf-b992-c6347084cbf8" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21840:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP LN) could be the start of a much larger M&amp;A wave.</a>
</li>
<li>Many juniors trade at 0.1x to 0.2x NAV while transactions typically happen at 0.8x-1x NAV. Filo was acquired at 0.81x NAV so right within this range.</li>
<li>We continue to like a basket of junior copper mines to get exposure to M&amp;A copper dynamics</li>
</ul>


The acquisition of Filo (FIL CN) by Lundin Mining (LUN CN) and BHP Group Ltd (BHP LN) could be the start of a much larger M&amp;A wave.

Many juniors trade at 0.1x to 0.2x NAV while transactions typically happen at 0.8x-1x NAV. Filo was acquired at 0.81x NAV so right within this range.
We continue to like a basket of junior copper mines to get exposure to M&amp;A copper dynamics


Rio Tinto: Open to Major Copper M&A; Entree Resources Logical Target

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/entree-resources-ltd-3aeeb68c-80d0-4ada-822e-898883fbb28e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26727:1" rel="noopener">Entree Resources (ETG CN)</a> has been in an arbitration proceeding against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22114:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN)</a> since April 2024.</li>
<li>After initial hearings earlier in 1H24 we expect final arguments next week. The arbitration committee verdict should come by late 3Q24.</li>
<li>At stake is the relationship and ownership arrangement between ETG and RIO's in Oyu Tolgoi, one of the world's largest copper mines. Just concluded Mongolian elections clear the last hurdle.</li>
</ul>



Entree Resources (ETG CN) has been in an arbitration proceeding against Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN) since April 2024.
After initial hearings earlier in 1H24 we expect final arguments next week. The arbitration committee verdict should come by late 3Q24.
At stake is the relationship and ownership arrangement between ETG and RIO's in Oyu Tolgoi, one of the world's largest copper mines. Just concluded Mongolian elections clear the last hurdle.


Mongolia Elections Behind Us and Rio Versus Entree Arbitration Ruling Expected by Late 3Q24

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> has one of its most prized assets in Mongolia. The Oyu Tolgoi mine has an 80-year mine-life and will ramp up significantly in coming years.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/entree-resources-ltd-3aeeb68c-80d0-4ada-822e-898883fbb28e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26727:1" rel="noopener">Entree Resources (ETG CN)</a> is the last remaining hurdle to acquire after the successful integration of Turquoise Hill in late 2022.</li>
<li>Entree just released a batch of 2022 (!) drilling results, one month before an arbitration deadline. Why was it released now? Will Rio finally move on Entree before the deadline?</li>
</ul>



Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) has one of its most prized assets in Mongolia. The Oyu Tolgoi mine has an 80-year mine-life and will ramp up significantly in coming years.

Entree Resources (ETG CN) is the last remaining hurdle to acquire after the successful integration of Turquoise Hill in late 2022.
Entree just released a batch of 2022 (!) drilling results, one month before an arbitration deadline. Why was it released now? Will Rio finally move on Entree before the deadline?


Rio: JV Partner in Mongolia Releases Incredible Copper Grades One Month Before Arbitration Deadline

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> invited the investing community to Mongolia in early July.</li>
<li>During the briefing comments were made regarding its position in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/entree-resources-ltd-3aeeb68c-80d0-4ada-822e-898883fbb28e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26727:1" rel="noopener">Entree Resources (ETG CN)</a> which makes us believe a deal is imminent. These comments were later deleted from its transcript.</li>
<li>We expect newsflow around Rio/Entree's future relationship before arbitration starts in April 2024.</li>
</ul>



Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) invited the investing community to Mongolia in early July.
During the briefing comments were made regarding its position in Entree Resources (ETG CN) which makes us believe a deal is imminent. These comments were later deleted from its transcript.
We expect newsflow around Rio/Entree's future relationship before arbitration starts in April 2024.


Rio Tinto: Consolidating Its Mongolian Crown Jewel, Part 2

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Copper is trading above 5.05 USD/lbs and has rallied over 29% YTD. Jeff Currie was quoted as saying "<strong>Copper is the New Oil"</strong>
</li>
<li>Sprott launches physical Copper Trust, copying the uranium playbook. Removing physical copper from the market.</li>
<li>Uranium in 2023 and Cacao in 1H24 show what commodity prices can do if investors panic. Is copper making a parabolic move next?</li>
</ul>


Copper is trading above 5.05 USD/lbs and has rallied over 29% YTD. Jeff Currie was quoted as saying "Copper is the New Oil"

Sprott launches physical Copper Trust, copying the uranium playbook. Removing physical copper from the market.
Uranium in 2023 and Cacao in 1H24 show what commodity prices can do if investors panic. Is copper making a parabolic move next?


Canada

Entree Resources Ltd. operates as a mining company. The Company develops and discovers gold and copper resources. Entree Resources is currently conducting exploration on its mineral concessions in Mongolia.

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Entree Resources (ETG CN)

Rio Tinto: Open to Major Copper M&A; Entree Resources Logical Target

The acquisition of Filo by Lundin Mining and BHP Group could signal the beginning of a significant M&A wave in the mining industry, with potential...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Mongolia Elections Behind Us and Rio Versus Entree Arbitration Ruling Expected by Late 3Q24

Entree Resources in arbitration against Rio Tinto over Oyu Tolgoi ownership, final verdict expected in late 3Q24 after Mongolian elections.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Rio: JV Partner in Mongolia Releases Incredible Copper Grades One Month Before Arbitration Deadline

Rio Tinto still has an "annoying" third partner in its world-class Oyu Tolgoi mining project in Mongolia. Entree Resources is a prime takeover target.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Rio Tinto: Consolidating Its Mongolian Crown Jewel, Part 2

Rio Tinto hosted an investor day in Mongolia in July. The original transcript of the day made specific references to Entree, but those have...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Junior Copper Miners: Time for Lift-Off?

Copper surges as demand increases. Sprott launches physical Copper Trust, potentially impacting market supply. Will copper follow uranium and...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Rio Tinto: Open to Major Copper M&A; Entree Resources Logical Target

​The acquisition of Filo by Lundin Mining and BHP Group could signal the beginning of a significant M&A wave in the mining industry, with potential...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Mongolia Elections Behind Us and Rio Versus Entree Arbitration Ruling Expected by Late 3Q24

​Entree Resources in arbitration against Rio Tinto over Oyu Tolgoi ownership, final verdict expected in late 3Q24 after Mongolian elections.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Rio: JV Partner in Mongolia Releases Incredible Copper Grades One Month Before Arbitration Deadline

Rio Tinto still has an "annoying" third partner in its world-class Oyu Tolgoi mining project in Mongolia. Entree Resources is a prime takeover target.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Rio Tinto: Consolidating Its Mongolian Crown Jewel, Part 2

Rio Tinto hosted an investor day in Mongolia in July. The original transcript of the day made specific references to Entree, but those have...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Junior Copper Miners: Time for Lift-Off?

​Copper surges as demand increases. Sprott launches physical Copper Trust, potentially impacting market supply. Will copper follow uranium and...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

The acquisition of Filo by Lundin Mining and BHP Group could signal the beginning of a significant M&A wave in the mining industry, with potential...

Entree Resources in arbitration against Rio Tinto over Oyu Tolgoi ownership, final verdict expected in late 3Q24 after Mongolian elections.

Copper surges as demand increases. Sprott launches physical Copper Trust, potentially impacting market supply. Will copper follow uranium and...