Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.</li>
<li>Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.</li>
<li>As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
</ul>


We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.
Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.
As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).


Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of A-share stocks as of Sep 18th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD352,843m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in CHINA MINSHENG BANKING, BOE, FUJIAN STAR-NET COMMUNICATION, CATL, JIANGSU HENGRUI MEDICINE.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of A-share stocks as of Sep 18th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD352,843m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in CHINA MINSHENG BANKING, BOE, FUJIAN STAR-NET COMMUNICATION, CATL, JIANGSU HENGRUI MEDICINE.


A-Share Margin Trading Weekly (Sep 18th): CHINA MINSHENG BANKING, BOE, FUJIAN STAR-NET COMMUNICATION

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$123-$123.50 remains short-term support to watch on ACWI-US (6.5-month base); we would expect support here on a pullback, but a break below it would likely mean a test of $119-$121</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.
$123-$123.50 remains short-term support to watch on ACWI-US (6.5-month base); we would expect support here on a pullback, but a break below it would likely mean a test of $119-$121


Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Capital Markets

Ligent Technologies / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>My base case valuation of Ligent Technologies is HKD45.6 per share, representing 38.3% higher than the IPO offer price.</li>
<li>I used four comps including Zhongji InnoLight (3308 HK), Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (6869 HK), Cowell e (1415 HK), and Eoptolink Technology (300502 CH) to value Ligent Technologies.</li>
<li>My base case valuation of HKD45.6 per share which is based on a P/E of 24.1x is at a 20% discount to the comps' average P/E valuation in 2027.</li>
</ul>


My base case valuation of Ligent Technologies is HKD45.6 per share, representing 38.3% higher than the IPO offer price.
I used four comps including Zhongji InnoLight (3308 HK), Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (6869 HK), Cowell e (1415 HK), and Eoptolink Technology (300502 CH) to value Ligent Technologies.
My base case valuation of HKD45.6 per share which is based on a P/E of 24.1x is at a 20% discount to the comps' average P/E valuation in 2027.


Ligent Technologies - Hong Kong IPO Valuation Analysis

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

<ul>
<li>Ligent Technologies (9856 HK), a leading optical transceiver and chip maker serving the data center market, will IPO on September 22nd.  The company will raise HK$5.67 billion.</li>
<li>The optical transceiver market is projected to grow at a 40.6% revenue CAGR from 2025–2030, driven by adoption of 800G/1.6T modules in AI data centers.</li>
<li>Although the US is reportedly considering a ban on imports of new models of Chinese optical transceivers, expanding capacity for US-based transceiver companies would take years and significant capital.</li>
</ul>


Ligent Technologies (9856 HK), a leading optical transceiver and chip maker serving the data center market, will IPO on September 22nd.  The company will raise HK$5.67 billion.
The optical transceiver market is projected to grow at a 40.6% revenue CAGR from 2025–2030, driven by adoption of 800G/1.6T modules in AI data centers.
Although the US is reportedly considering a ban on imports of new models of Chinese optical transceivers, expanding capacity for US-based transceiver companies would take years and significant capital.


HONG KONG IPO WATCH: Ligent Technologies - Connecting AI Globally

China

Eoptolink Technology Inc., Ltd.  designs and manufactures communication components.  The Company sells a variety of optical transceiver modules.  Eoptolink Technology sells products around the world.

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Eoptolink Technology (300502 CH)

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding on $ACWI ($123-123.50), $EEM ($46)

Vermilion Research

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports $ACWI, $ACWX, ACWI ex-US Small-Caps, $EEM, and $EFA....

Vermilion Research

Ligent Technologies - Hong Kong IPO Valuation Analysis

My base case valuation of Ligent Technologies is HKD45.6 per share (38.3% higher than the IPO offer price). My valuation sensitivity analysis...

Douglas Kim

HONG KONG IPO WATCH: Ligent Technologies - Connecting AI Globally

Ligent Technologies (9856 HK), a leading optical transceiver and chip maker serving the data center market, will IPO on September 22nd. The...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding on $ACWI ($123-123.50), $EEM ($46)

Vermilion Research

A-Share Margin Trading Weekly (Sep 18th): CHINA MINSHENG BANKING, BOE, FUJIAN STAR-NET COMMUNICATION

We analyzed A-share margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted CHINA MINSHENG BANKING, BOE, FUJIAN STAR-NET COMMUNICATION,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports $ACWI, $ACWX, ACWI ex-US Small-Caps, $EEM, and $EFA....

Vermilion Research

Ligent Technologies - Hong Kong IPO Valuation Analysis

My base case valuation of Ligent Technologies is HKD45.6 per share (38.3% higher than the IPO offer price). My valuation sensitivity analysis...

Douglas Kim

HONG KONG IPO WATCH: Ligent Technologies - Connecting AI Globally

Ligent Technologies (9856 HK), a leading optical transceiver and chip maker serving the data center market, will IPO on September 22nd. The...

David Mudd