Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>While the S&amp;P 500 has hit marginal new highs, price action of the S&amp;P 500 and the price and RS of several Sectors/subsectors is similar to the periods leading up to the October 2018 and May 2019 breakdowns. We draw several similarities in today’s report, and we continue to believe upside is likely to be muted from here barring additional positive developments.</p>

While the S&amp;P 500 has hit marginal new highs, price action of the S&amp;P 500 and the price and RS of several Sectors/subsectors is similar to the periods leading up to the October 2018 and May 2019 breakdowns. We draw several similarities in today’s report, and we continue to believe upside is likely to be muted from here barring additional positive developments.

U.S. Equities: Mixed Signals Punctuate Muted Outlook

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage, Quiddity Advisors

Anjana Amarasuriya

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SP Select Sector indices are a family of 11 sector-specific indices derived from the SP 500 index based on GICS (Global Industry Classification Standard) classifications.</li>
<li>The Technology Select Sector Index is back on top with US$5.1 bn one-way flow while the  Communication Services Select Sector Index still has significant flows.</li>
<li>The pending intra-review deal could trigger additional intra-review flows of ~US$1bn across the Select Sector indices if the deal closes before the June 2026 regular rebalance.</li>
</ul>


The SP Select Sector indices are a family of 11 sector-specific indices derived from the SP 500 index based on GICS (Global Industry Classification Standard) classifications.
The Technology Select Sector Index is back on top with US$5.1 bn one-way flow while the  Communication Services Select Sector Index still has significant flows.
The pending intra-review deal could trigger additional intra-review flows of ~US$1bn across the Select Sector indices if the deal closes before the June 2026 regular rebalance.


Quiddity Leaderboard SP Select Sector Jun26 Rebal: One-Way Flow Climbs ~US$4bn In A Month

<ul>
<li>The SP 500 index tracks the 500 largest US-listed names and is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>Two active M&amp;A deals could trigger intra-review ADDs. Shareholders have already approved one deal while the other goes to a shareholder vote on 4th May 2026.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/titan-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2416:1" rel="noopener">Titan International (TWI US)</a>, our previous top SP 600 deletion candidate, was dropped from the SP 600. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insteel-industries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4069:1" rel="noopener">Insteel Industries (IIIN US)</a> is now our top DELETION candidate.</li>
</ul>


The SP 500 index tracks the 500 largest US-listed names and is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
Two active M&amp;A deals could trigger intra-review ADDs. Shareholders have already approved one deal while the other goes to a shareholder vote on 4th May 2026.

Titan International (TWI US), our previous top SP 600 deletion candidate, was dropped from the SP 600. Insteel Industries (IIIN US) is now our top DELETION candidate.


Quiddity Leaderboard SP500/600 Jun26 Rebal: Two M&A Deals in Play; May Close Before June Review

<ul>
<li>The SP Select Sector indices are a family of 11 sector-specific indices derived from the SP 500 index based on GICS (Global Industry Classification Standard) classifications.</li>
<li>Large flows in the Communication Services (XLC) Index are driven by a secondary re-weighting triggered after the March 2026 rebalance that we expect to be corrected in June.</li>
<li>Intra-Review changes are expected to trigger an additional US$2.8bn of one-way flows across the Select Sector indices if implemented before the June 2026 regular rebalance.</li>
</ul>


The SP Select Sector indices are a family of 11 sector-specific indices derived from the SP 500 index based on GICS (Global Industry Classification Standard) classifications.
Large flows in the Communication Services (XLC) Index are driven by a secondary re-weighting triggered after the March 2026 rebalance that we expect to be corrected in June.
Intra-Review changes are expected to trigger an additional US$2.8bn of one-way flows across the Select Sector indices if implemented before the June 2026 regular rebalance.


Quiddity Leaderboard SP Select Sector Jun26 Rebal: Over US$10bn One-Way Flow Expected

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vertiv-holdings-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33140:1" rel="noopener">Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coherent-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9518:1" rel="noopener">Coherent (COHR US)</a> are the main candidates for addition, based on high eligibility scores.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marvell-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15837:1" rel="noopener">Marvell Technology (MRVL US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lumentum-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12529:1" rel="noopener">Lumentum Holdings (LITE US)</a> face reduced conviction due to tech-sector balance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/echostar-corp-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3225:1" rel="noopener">Echostar Corp A (SATS US)</a> faces reduced conviction because of earnings and float cap.</li>
</ul>



Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT US) and Coherent (COHR US) are the main candidates for addition, based on high eligibility scores.

Marvell Technology (MRVL US) and Lumentum Holdings (LITE US) face reduced conviction due to tech-sector balance.

Echostar Corp A (SATS US) faces reduced conviction because of earnings and float cap.


S&P500 March 2026 Forecast: VRT, COHR & SATS Leading the Pack

United States

EPAM Systems, Inc. provides software development, outsourcing services, e-business, enterprise relationship management, and content management solutions.

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Epam Systems (EPAM US)

U.S. Equities: Mixed Signals Punctuate Muted Outlook

While the S&P 500 has hit marginal new highs, price action of the S&P 500 and the price and RS of several Sectors/subsectors is similar to...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard SP Select Sector Jun26 Rebal: One-Way Flow Climbs ~US$4bn In A Month

Over US$37bn of one-way flow expected across SP 500, Select Sectors, and Equal Weight at the June 2026 rebalance. The pending M&A deal could add...

Anjana Amarasuriya

Quiddity Leaderboard SP500/600 Jun26 Rebal: Two M&A Deals in Play; May Close Before June Review

Bloom Energy (BE US) cleared the SP 500 financial viability requirement with $70.7m of net income in its Q1 2026 earnings release on 28 April 2026,...

Anjana Amarasuriya

Quiddity Leaderboard SP Select Sector Jun26 Rebal: Over US$10bn One-Way Flow Expected

A secondary re-weighting correction is set to drive over US$3.7bn of one-way flows in Communication Services in the June 2026 SP Select Sector...

Anjana Amarasuriya

S&P500 March 2026 Forecast: VRT, COHR & SATS Leading the Pack

Announced additions: VRT, COHR, SATS and LITE. Following the announcement, all four are trading higher in after hours by 5.2%, 0.7%, 3.2%, and...

Dimitris Ioannidis

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