Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>DC company share prices are rolling over, foreshadowing increasing pressure on their hyperscaler customers.  Since the July swoon in semiconductor stocks, the DC sector has underperformed both hyperscalers and semiconductors.</li>
<li>DC players face strong headwinds on multiple fronts, including high leverage/circular financing, supply chain delays, public opposition, and questions about aggressive forecasts of future compute demand.</li>
<li>Leverage is the most prominent risk in the DC sector, with questions looming about completion dates and customers' ability to meet their contracted offtake agreements.</li>
</ul>


DC company share prices are rolling over, foreshadowing increasing pressure on their hyperscaler customers.  Since the July swoon in semiconductor stocks, the DC sector has underperformed both hyperscalers and semiconductors.
DC players face strong headwinds on multiple fronts, including high leverage/circular financing, supply chain delays, public opposition, and questions about aggressive forecasts of future compute demand.
Leverage is the most prominent risk in the DC sector, with questions looming about completion dates and customers' ability to meet their contracted offtake agreements.


DATA CENTER SECTOR: From the Tip of the Spear to Canary in the Coal Mine

Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Equinix circumvents seven-year utility grid delays by deploying primary on-site fuel cells, securing crucial power capacity for hyperscale artificial intelligence deployments in constrained Tier-1 markets.</li>
<li>The company boasts an unassailable moat of over 500,000 interconnections, granting immense pricing power and driving 2025 annualized gross bookings to a record 1.6 bn USD.</li>
<li>Management guidance projects 2026 revenue of 10.2 bn USD with EBITDA margins expanding to 51%, presenting a highly compelling long position despite elevated capital expenditures.</li>
</ul>


Equinix circumvents seven-year utility grid delays by deploying primary on-site fuel cells, securing crucial power capacity for hyperscale artificial intelligence deployments in constrained Tier-1 markets.
The company boasts an unassailable moat of over 500,000 interconnections, granting immense pricing power and driving 2025 annualized gross bookings to a record 1.6 bn USD.
Management guidance projects 2026 revenue of 10.2 bn USD with EBITDA margins expanding to 51%, presenting a highly compelling long position despite elevated capital expenditures.


EQIX: AI Power Play and Fuel Cell Moat Drive 51% Margins

Managing Director, Golden Section Capital

Garreth Elston

Managing Director

Golden Section Equity Research

Golden Section Capital

Golden Section Capital is a private international investment, specialist independent equity research, and corporate finance consulting services provider focussing on real estate and infrastructure. 

Paid for corporate research on Real Estate and Infrastructure companies. Plus independent pieces on various real estate companies and themes.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Power is the product. Data centres are sold by the megawatt, not the square metre. Whoever secures the electricity controls the value.</li>
<li>The usual property metrics mislead. Cap rates and occupancy metrics, borrowed from real estate, hide the huge mandatory upgrade cycles these assets demand. Standard valuation reaches the wrong answer.</li>
<li>Governments now decide. Grid access and planning approval, not customer demand, determine which projects get built. Regulators in Singapore, Ireland and US states have become the real gatekeepers of supply.</li>
</ul>


Power is the product. Data centres are sold by the megawatt, not the square metre. Whoever secures the electricity controls the value.
The usual property metrics mislead. Cap rates and occupancy metrics, borrowed from real estate, hide the huge mandatory upgrade cycles these assets demand. Standard valuation reaches the wrong answer.
Governments now decide. Grid access and planning approval, not customer demand, determine which projects get built. Regulators in Singapore, Ireland and US states have become the real gatekeepers of supply.


Data Centres: The Asset Class Powering the Digital Economy

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/palantir-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27728:1" rel="noopener">Palantir Technologies (PLTR US)</a> is anticipated to be the largest addition following its eligibility, which was secured through a listing transfer from NYSE to Nasdaq just before the cut-off date.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/super-micro-computer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7921:1" rel="noopener">Super Micro Computer (SMCI US)</a> is projected to exit the index despite its recent entry in July 2024, as it has ranked above the exit threshold of 125.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (ARM US)</a> is not an expected deletion due to special ADR market cap treatment. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/equinix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17409:1" rel="noopener">Equinix Inc (EQIX US)</a> is not an expected addition because it is a REIT.</li>
</ul>



Palantir Technologies (PLTR US) is anticipated to be the largest addition following its eligibility, which was secured through a listing transfer from NYSE to Nasdaq just before the cut-off date.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI US) is projected to exit the index despite its recent entry in July 2024, as it has ranked above the exit threshold of 125.

ARM Holdings (ARM US) is not an expected deletion due to special ADR market cap treatment. Equinix Inc (EQIX US) is not an expected addition because it is a REIT.


Nasdaq100 December 2024 Forecast (Final): Palantir's Last-Minute Entry; Arm's Subtle Retention

<ul>
<li>In the AI takeover of global markets, enablers are beating hyperscalers by an ever-widening margin.  Hyperscalers' unprecedented capex is fueling revenue growth across the AI enabler ecosystem.</li>
<li>The semiconductor chip sector has gone parabolic with an unsustainable rise in share prices.  The SOX momentum and % increase far exceed its rise during the Dotcom bubble period</li>
<li>The AI Memory subsector is the only segment that has significantly outperformed hyperscalers in both returns and fundamentals, primarily due to a structural high-bandwidth memory (HBM) supercycle.</li>
</ul>


In the AI takeover of global markets, enablers are beating hyperscalers by an ever-widening margin.  Hyperscalers' unprecedented capex is fueling revenue growth across the AI enabler ecosystem.
The semiconductor chip sector has gone parabolic with an unsustainable rise in share prices.  The SOX momentum and % increase far exceed its rise during the Dotcom bubble period
The AI Memory subsector is the only segment that has significantly outperformed hyperscalers in both returns and fundamentals, primarily due to a structural high-bandwidth memory (HBM) supercycle.


THE AI GOLD RUSH: Hyperscalers and Enablers

United States

Equinix Inc is a global colocation company offering data center space and power to customers. The Company centers offer direct interconnections to network providers, cloud service providers, and other customers. Equinix has extensive operations in North America, Europe, Asia, Dubai, and Brazil.

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Equinix Inc (EQIX US)

DATA CENTER SECTOR: From the Tip of the Spear to Canary in the Coal Mine

The sudden plunge in demand for an Nvidia-backed data center company’s initial public offering is revealing fresh cracks in the AI funding boom....

David Mudd

EQIX: AI Power Play and Fuel Cell Moat Drive 51% Margins

Equinix circumvents 7-year utility grid delays by deploying primary on-site fuel cells, securing crucial power capacity for hyperscale AI...

Jacob Cheng

Data Centres: The Asset Class Powering the Digital Economy

From megawatts and Tier ratings to valuation, power risk and regulation, the foundations required to evaluate one of the decade's defining asset...

Golden Section Capital

Nasdaq100 December 2024 Forecast (Final): Palantir's Last-Minute Entry; Arm's Subtle Retention

F1: 100%. All of the forecasts matched the index changes announced at the close of Friday 13 December. SMCI fell more than 11% in premarket trading...

Dimitris Ioannidis

THE AI GOLD RUSH: Hyperscalers and Enablers

In the AI takeover of global markets, enablers are beating hyperscalers by an ever-widening margin. Hyperscalers' unprecedented capex is fueling...

David Mudd

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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DATA CENTER SECTOR: From the Tip of the Spear to Canary in the Coal Mine

The sudden plunge in demand for an Nvidia-backed data center company’s initial public offering is revealing fresh cracks in the AI funding boom....

David Mudd

EQIX: AI Power Play and Fuel Cell Moat Drive 51% Margins

Equinix circumvents 7-year utility grid delays by deploying primary on-site fuel cells, securing crucial power capacity for hyperscale AI...

Jacob Cheng

Data Centres: The Asset Class Powering the Digital Economy

​From megawatts and Tier ratings to valuation, power risk and regulation, the foundations required to evaluate one of the decade's defining asset...

Golden Section Capital

Nasdaq100 December 2024 Forecast (Final): Palantir's Last-Minute Entry; Arm's Subtle Retention

F1: 100%. All of the forecasts matched the index changes announced at the close of Friday 13 December. SMCI fell more than 11% in premarket trading...

Dimitris Ioannidis

THE AI GOLD RUSH: Hyperscalers and Enablers

In the AI takeover of global markets, enablers are beating hyperscalers by an ever-widening margin. Hyperscalers' unprecedented capex is fueling...

David Mudd

From megawatts and Tier ratings to valuation, power risk and regulation, the foundations required to evaluate one of the decade's defining asset...