Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Global copper-mine production declined in early 2026, driven by lower output and disruptions in key producing nations like Chile, Peru, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)</li>
<li>Anticipation and fears of aggressive U.S. import tariffs on copper and related metal products prompted traders to aggressively divert and ship refined copper into U.S. (COMEX) warehouses</li>
<li>We expect stocks to now digest the new-normal 14,000 USD/ton copper price. Check out our recent initiation: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/amerigo-resources-arg-cn-copper-factory-tailings-processor-that-sweeps-upside-to-shareholders" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:268297" rel="noopener">Amerigo Resources (ARG CN): Copper Factory Tailings Processor That Sweeps Upside To Shareholders</a> </li>
</ul>


Global copper-mine production declined in early 2026, driven by lower output and disruptions in key producing nations like Chile, Peru, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)
Anticipation and fears of aggressive U.S. import tariffs on copper and related metal products prompted traders to aggressively divert and ship refined copper into U.S. (COMEX) warehouses
We expect stocks to now digest the new-normal 14,000 USD/ton copper price. Check out our recent initiation: Amerigo Resources (ARG CN): Copper Factory Tailings Processor That Sweeps Upside To Shareholders 


Copper: Yangshan Premiums Approaching Highs, Stocks Digesting 14,000 USD/Ton Copper Assumptions

<ul>
<li>Copper has now entered the USD 14,000/ton range and consolidated. At these levels, companies are likely to see very positive HoH earnings, as production levels are also more H2-weighted.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ero-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38695:1" rel="noopener">ERO Copper (ERO US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lundin-mining-corp-92352503-3781-4fcb-a4db-62e6f6343783" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25356:1" rel="noopener">Lundin Mining (LUN CN)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta (ANTO LN)</a> are three names with cheap to reasonable valuations to play the copper price inflection</li>
<li>Trading at 8x PE and 5.2x EV-EBITDA, <a target="_blank">ERO Copper (ERO US)</a> is the cheapest, while <a target="_blank">Lundin Mining (LUN CN)</a>, at 14x PE and 6.1x EV-EBITDA, offers massive growth upside from Vicuna. </li>
</ul>


Copper has now entered the USD 14,000/ton range and consolidated. At these levels, companies are likely to see very positive HoH earnings, as production levels are also more H2-weighted.

ERO Copper (ERO US), Lundin Mining (LUN CN), and Antofagasta (ANTO LN) are three names with cheap to reasonable valuations to play the copper price inflection
Trading at 8x PE and 5.2x EV-EBITDA, ERO Copper (ERO US) is the cheapest, while Lundin Mining (LUN CN), at 14x PE and 6.1x EV-EBITDA, offers massive growth upside from Vicuna. 


Copper Price Inflection To 14,000 USD/Ton And Three Stocks To Play It

<ul>
<li>Copper output held at 17,315 tonnes with Tucumã throughput up 27%; Xavantina gold recovered 170% QoQ, lifting operating cash flow 49% to $137.9 million.</li>
<li>Deleveraging remains the story: net debt fell to $452.7 million (0.8x EBITDA), while copper production and cost guidance were reaffirmed for the full year.</li>
<li>Shares are up &gt;35% since our initiation in May (<a target="_blank">Ero Copper (ERO US): A 4.5x EV-EBITDA Pure Copper Play With Growth Is Rare</a>), but still 6x EV-EBITDA.</li>
</ul>


Copper output held at 17,315 tonnes with Tucumã throughput up 27%; Xavantina gold recovered 170% QoQ, lifting operating cash flow 49% to $137.9 million.
Deleveraging remains the story: net debt fell to $452.7 million (0.8x EBITDA), while copper production and cost guidance were reaffirmed for the full year.
Shares are up &gt;35% since our initiation in May (Ero Copper (ERO US): A 4.5x EV-EBITDA Pure Copper Play With Growth Is Rare), but still 6x EV-EBITDA.


Ero Copper Corp. (ERO US / ERO CN) Update: Q2 FY26 Results, Cash Inflection Confirmed

<ul>
<li>Pricing data now shows that the Copper-Aluminum price ratio is at its highest level, 4.3x, and a reversion to the mean is likely, suggesting a long aluminum, short copper trade. </li>
<li>The historic average has been 3.6x, and the lows have been at 2.75x. In all three instances in the last seven years, after touching 4.3x, mean reversion occurred.</li>
<li>Long-Term, we like copper fundamentals, and our favorite stocks are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ero-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38695:1" rel="noopener">ERO Copper (ERO US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lundin-mining-corp-92352503-3781-4fcb-a4db-62e6f6343783" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25356:1" rel="noopener">Lundin Mining (LUN CN)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> </li>
</ul>


Pricing data now shows that the Copper-Aluminum price ratio is at its highest level, 4.3x, and a reversion to the mean is likely, suggesting a long aluminum, short copper trade. 
The historic average has been 3.6x, and the lows have been at 2.75x. In all three instances in the last seven years, after touching 4.3x, mean reversion occurred.
Long-Term, we like copper fundamentals, and our favorite stocks are ERO Copper (ERO US), Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN), Lundin Mining (LUN CN), and Southern Copper (SCCO US) 


Copper: The Continuous Rise Of Comex Inventories And The Mean Reversion Of Copper-Aluminum Price

<ul>
<li>We expect copper prices to remain elevated at over 13,000 USD/ton in the foreseeable future, leading to upgrades in the equities.</li>
<li>As highlighted in our earlier note, Copper Price Correction: Four Stocks To Look At, our top picks in the copper space: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ero-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38695:1" rel="noopener">ERO Copper (ERO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lundin-mining-corp-92352503-3781-4fcb-a4db-62e6f6343783" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25356:1" rel="noopener">Lundin Mining (LUN CN)</a>.</li>
<li>We also like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a>, although they are bigger names with richer valuations. </li>
</ul>


We expect copper prices to remain elevated at over 13,000 USD/ton in the foreseeable future, leading to upgrades in the equities.
As highlighted in our earlier note, Copper Price Correction: Four Stocks To Look At, our top picks in the copper space: ERO Copper (ERO US) and Lundin Mining (LUN CN).
We also like Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN), although they are bigger names with richer valuations. 


Copper: Remain Bullish Stocks, Copper Price To Stay Elevated At >13,000 USD/Ton

Brazil

ERO Copper Corp. provides base metals mining services. The Company produces and sells coppers, gold, and silver. ERO Copper serves clients in Canada and Brazil.

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ERO Copper (ERO US)

Copper: Yangshan Premiums Approaching Highs, Stocks Digesting 14,000 USD/Ton Copper Assumptions

With copper consolidating at 14,000 USD/ton, we provide rationale for the recent copper strength. Our recent initiation, Amerigo Resources (ARG...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Price Inflection To 14,000 USD/Ton And Three Stocks To Play It

Copper is consolidating at 14,000 USD/ton. We highlight some updates in the copper market and cheap equities to play the copper story, like Ero...

Sameer Taneja

Ero Copper Corp. (ERO US / ERO CN) Update: Q2 FY26 Results, Cash Inflection Confirmed

Q2 confirms Ero's cash inflection: copper steady, Xavantina recovering, net debt at 0.8x, revolver being repaid. Still trading at 6x EV-EBITDA...

Sameer Taneja

Copper: The Continuous Rise Of Comex Inventories And The Mean Reversion Of Copper-Aluminum Price

We highlight the increasing Cu-Al ratio in this insight and other KPIs influencing the copper trade. We also provide our top long-term picks in the...

Sameer Taneja

Copper: Remain Bullish Stocks, Copper Price To Stay Elevated At >13,000 USD/Ton

Risk-off rattles copper, but fundamentals intact. Record Q1s from SCCO, ANTO & LUN. Inventories peaking = bull cycle loading.

Sameer Taneja

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