Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>While the earnings season continues, this will be the final dedicated earnings edition.</li>
<li>For reference, the previous earnings editions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/week-8-namaste-india-earnings-edition-part-i" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:115688" rel="noopener">[Week 8] Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Edition - Part I</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/week-9-namaste-india-earnings-edition-part-ii" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:116224" rel="noopener">[Week 9] Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Edition - Part II</a> </li>
<li>At the bottom, we provide a consolidated view of all earnings (~ 50) tracked so far and we would be happy to engage in discussions on any of them.</li>
</ul>


While the earnings season continues, this will be the final dedicated earnings edition.
For reference, the previous earnings editions are [Week 8] Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Edition - Part I &amp; [Week 9] Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Edition - Part II 
At the bottom, we provide a consolidated view of all earnings (~ 50) tracked so far and we would be happy to engage in discussions on any of them.


[Week 10] Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Edition - Final Part

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Auto OEMs: We expect Revenue/EBITDA/PAT of Auto OEMs under our coverage to grow at 17%/41%/50% YoY in Q2FY24.</li><li>This will be led by YoY growth in 1) The PV segment (up ~5% YoY in domestic sales), 7% growth in CV domestic sales, 59% growth in domestic 3W sales being partly offset by a 2% marginal drop in overall 2W sales volumes (domestic + exports),</li><li>2) Higher average selling price (ASP) on a YoY basis, led by price hikes taken by OEMs and improved product mix,</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto OEMs: We expect Revenue/EBITDA/PAT of Auto OEMs under our coverage to grow at 17%/41%/50% YoY in Q2FY24.This will be led by YoY growth in 1) The PV segment (up ~5% YoY in domestic sales), 7% growth in CV domestic sales, 59% growth in domestic 3W sales being partly offset by a 2% marginal drop in overall 2W sales volumes (domestic + exports),2) Higher average selling price (ASP) on a YoY basis, led by price hikes taken by OEMs and improved product mix,Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Sep’23 Wholesale Volumes: The PV domestic sales were led by higher SUV dispatches while entry-level car sales remained under pressure.</li><li>Domestic 2W sales grew by 13% MoM (up 2% YoY, excluding HMSI) as OEMs filled the channel inventory ahead of the festive season.</li><li>2W exports showed early signs of strength (needs monitoring) with industry (excl HMSI) growing 4%/1% on a YoY/QoQ basis. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Sep’23 Wholesale Volumes: The PV domestic sales were led by higher SUV dispatches while entry-level car sales remained under pressure.Domestic 2W sales grew by 13% MoM (up 2% YoY, excluding HMSI) as OEMs filled the channel inventory ahead of the festive season.2W exports showed early signs of strength (needs monitoring) with industry (excl HMSI) growing 4%/1% on a YoY/QoQ basis. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul>
<li>Positive retail flows, HNI &amp; AIF inflows, along with global market trends, suggest that the uptrend for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> may continue.</li>
<li>Bullish stocks include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-brands" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35289:1" rel="noopener">Metro Brands (METROBRA IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zydus-wellness-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4353:1" rel="noopener">Zydus Wellness (ZYWL IN)</a>, while the sentiment for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/whirlpool-of-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7270:1" rel="noopener">Whirlpool of India (WHIRL IN)</a> is Bearish.</li>
<li>Highlighted global stocks include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ebix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4022:1" rel="noopener">Ebix (EBIX US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smith-a-o-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18645:1" rel="noopener">Smith (A.O.) (AOS US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> </li>
</ul>


Positive retail flows, HNI &amp; AIF inflows, along with global market trends, suggest that the uptrend for the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) may continue.
Bullish stocks include Metro Brands (METROBRA IN) and Zydus Wellness (ZYWL IN), while the sentiment for Whirlpool of India (WHIRL IN) is Bearish.
Highlighted global stocks include Ebix (EBIX US) , Smith (A.O.) (AOS US) and Apple (AAPL US) 


[Week 1] Namaste India 🙏 | Whirlpool Stock Performance Is Good, Earnings Are Not

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/power-finance-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13579:1" rel="noopener">Power Finance</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astral-poly-technik-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7890:1" rel="noopener">Astral</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idfc-first-bank-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26934:1" rel="noopener">IDFC First Bank</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cummins-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7365:1" rel="noopener">Cummins India</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-asset-management-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27027:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Asset Management</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashok-leyland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20104:1" rel="noopener">Ashok Leyland</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/polycab-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27877:1" rel="noopener">Polycab India</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/supreme-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11443:1" rel="noopener">Supreme Industries</a> have all run up over the recent past and have investor attention.</li>
<li>The increase in market cap has put the stocks on active manager radars and could also result in the stocks being added to global indices in the near future.</li>
<li>We take a look at the positioning on the stocks and recommend pair trades to reduce market risk while trying to capture alpha.</li>
</ul>



Power Finance, Astral, IDFC First Bank, Cummins India, HDFC Asset Management, Ashok Leyland, Polycab India and Supreme Industries have all run up over the recent past and have investor attention.
The increase in market cap has put the stocks on active manager radars and could also result in the stocks being added to global indices in the near future.
We take a look at the positioning on the stocks and recommend pair trades to reduce market risk while trying to capture alpha.


India - Positioning on Some Interesting Names

India

Escorts Kubota Limited is among India's leading engineering conglomerates, operating in the high growth sectors of Agri Machinery, Material Handling, Construction Equipment and Railway Equipment. The Group has earned the trust of over 5 million customers by way of product and process innovations over seven decades.

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Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN)

[Week 10] Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Edition - Final Part

This Insight is the final dedicated earnings edition, providing a consolidated view of all earnings tracked so far. At the end we also provide...

Pranav Bhavsar

Auto Q2FY24 Results Preview

Auto OEMs: We expect Revenue/EBITDA/PAT of Auto OEMs under our coverage to grow at 17%/41%/50% YoY in Q2FY24. This will be led by YoY growth in 1)...

Axis Direct

Auto Monthly Volume Sep 2023

Sep’23 Wholesale Volumes: The PV domestic sales were led by higher SUV dispatches while entry-level car sales remained under pressure.

Axis Direct

[Week 1] Namaste India 🙏 | Whirlpool Stock Performance Is Good, Earnings Are Not

The NIFTY Index could continue its uptrend. Bullish names include Metro, and Zydus Wellness, Global names to watch are Ebix, Smith (A.O.), and Apple.

Pranav Bhavsar

India - Positioning on Some Interesting Names

Quite a few Indian stocks have jumped in price recently and the increased market cap will put them on active investors radars and could get the...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Week 10] Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Edition - Final Part

​This Insight is the final dedicated earnings edition, providing a consolidated view of all earnings tracked so far. At the end we also provide...

Pranav Bhavsar

Auto Q2FY24 Results Preview

Auto OEMs: We expect Revenue/EBITDA/PAT of Auto OEMs under our coverage to grow at 17%/41%/50% YoY in Q2FY24. This will be led by YoY growth in 1)...

Axis Direct

Auto Monthly Volume Sep 2023

Sep’23 Wholesale Volumes: The PV domestic sales were led by higher SUV dispatches while entry-level car sales remained under pressure.

Axis Direct

[Week 1] Namaste India 🙏 | Whirlpool Stock Performance Is Good, Earnings Are Not

The NIFTY Index could continue its uptrend. Bullish names include Metro, and Zydus Wellness, Global names to watch are Ebix, Smith (A.O.), and Apple.

Pranav Bhavsar

India - Positioning on Some Interesting Names

Quite a few Indian stocks have jumped in price recently and the increased market cap will put them on active investors radars and could get the...

Brian Freitas

This Insight is the final dedicated earnings edition, providing a consolidated view of all earnings tracked so far. At the end we also provide...