Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> is elevated vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> as the accretion trade unfolds.</li>
<li>As rates go up, investors may opt for direct exposure to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a>, as opposed to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> indirectly, contributing to short squeezing JPB.</li>
<li>Expect near-term weakness in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a>, IF the exclusivity with Blackrock/MSC ends this weekend without resolution.</li>
</ul>



Prosus NV (PRX NA) is elevated vs. Tencent (700 HK) as the accretion trade unfolds.
As rates go up, investors may opt for direct exposure to Japan Post Bank (7182 JP), as opposed to Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) indirectly, contributing to short squeezing JPB.
Expect near-term weakness in CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK), IF the exclusivity with Blackrock/MSC ends this weekend without resolution.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Prosus/Tencent, Japan Post Bank, CK Holdings, Seven & I

<ul>
<li>I tally 38 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6261:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Industrial (7250 JP)</a>'s Tender Offer. Although I'm expecting an Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cromwell-property-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2780:1" rel="noopener">Cromwell Property (CMW AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insignia-financial-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12349:1" rel="noopener">Insignia Financial (IFL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pointsbet-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29102:1" rel="noopener">PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9712:1" rel="noopener">New World Resources (NWC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-fengxiang-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29164:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-hospitality-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:913:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 38 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week - Pacific Industrial (7250 JP)'s Tender Offer. Although I'm expecting an Offer for Cromwell Property (CMW AU).
Key updates/news took place on Insignia Financial (IFL AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), New World Resources (NWC AU), Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK), Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Pacific Ind., Insignia Fin., PointsBet, New World Res., Frasers Hospitality

<ul>
<li>As discussed in <a href="https://skr.ma/CRvUL" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cromwell Prop (CMW AU): ESR Exit Post-Privatization?</a>,  after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR (1821 HK)</a> acquired ARA Asset Management in 2021, it said <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cromwell-property-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2780:1" rel="noopener">Cromwell Property (CMW AU)</a> was a non-core holding.</li>
<li>After ESR announced a privatisation by Warburg/Starwood on the 4th December 2024, I mused whether this would accelerate the sale as part of a wider strategic review. </li>
<li>Two months ago, ESR initiated a block trade for part of its 31% stake in Cromwell. Now Brookfield is seeking ESR's remaining 19.9% stake @A$0.38/share. Subject to FIRB approval.
</li>
</ul>


As discussed in Cromwell Prop (CMW AU): ESR Exit Post-Privatization?,  after ESR (1821 HK) acquired ARA Asset Management in 2021, it said Cromwell Property (CMW AU) was a non-core holding.
After ESR announced a privatisation by Warburg/Starwood on the 4th December 2024, I mused whether this would accelerate the sale as part of a wider strategic review. 
Two months ago, ESR initiated a block trade for part of its 31% stake in Cromwell. Now Brookfield is seeking ESR's remaining 19.9% stake @A$0.38/share. Subject to FIRB approval.



Cromwell Prop (CMW AU): Brookfield's Stake Foreshadows A Full Takeover

<ul>
<li>For June 2025, 11 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$29bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in June was ~39%, with a year-to-date average of 47%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For June 2025, 11 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$29bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in June was ~39%, with a year-to-date average of 47%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, June 2025 Wrap: Santos, Fuji Corp, Brickworks, Great Eastern, VIOL, Adriatic

<ul>
<li>In December 2021, buy-now, pay-later outfit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/humm-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35366:1" rel="noopener">humm (HUM AU)</a> announced approaches from third parties to acquire all/part of the company. This was discussed in<a href="https://skr.ma/CkbrE" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> BNPL Play Hummgroup Fields Proposals</a>. </li>
<li>Six months later, a proposed sale of Humm Consumer Finance business to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/latitude-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26740:1" rel="noopener">Latitude (LFS AU)</a> was terminated, before the scheduled vote, due to opposition from founder/chairman Andrew Abercrombie. </li>
<li>Now the Abercrombie Group (TAG), the family office of Andrew Abercrombie, has tabled a A$0.58/share non-binding Offer, in cash, by way of a Scheme. Abercrombie hold 26.6%.</li>
</ul>


In December 2021, buy-now, pay-later outfit humm (HUM AU) announced approaches from third parties to acquire all/part of the company. This was discussed in BNPL Play Hummgroup Fields Proposals. 
Six months later, a proposed sale of Humm Consumer Finance business to Latitude (LFS AU) was terminated, before the scheduled vote, due to opposition from founder/chairman Andrew Abercrombie. 
Now the Abercrombie Group (TAG), the family office of Andrew Abercrombie, has tabled a A$0.58/share non-binding Offer, in cash, by way of a Scheme. Abercrombie hold 26.6%.


Hong Kong

ESR is a leading Asia-Pacific real asset owner and manager, specializing in the development and management of logistics properties, data centers, and energy infrastructure. The company also provides comprehensive fund management and development services. ESR was formed in January 2016 and is headquartered in Singapore.

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ESR (3K6 GR)

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Brookfield won't stop at 19.9%. Precedent transactions for A-REITs that focus on office properties were ~NTA.CMW's recent NTA was A$0.57/share....

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, June 2025 Wrap: Santos, Fuji Corp, Brickworks, Great Eastern, VIOL, Adriatic

For the month of June, 11 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$29bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Humm Group (HUM AU): Chairman's NBIO

humm is engaged. Yet terms remain indicative. If small, illiquid arbs are your thing, I might pay up to A$0.54/share, assuming payment around the...

David Blennerhassett

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