European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Industrivärden offers cost-efficient, long-term exposure to Swedish industrial blue chips, with a high-quality balance sheet and 21% upside potential to our NAV-based target price of SEK 380.2.</li>
<li>While the portfolio remains concentrated in five core holdings, recent underperformance has opened a value gap; Volvo and Sandvik remain key drivers of upside in a cyclical rebound.</li>
<li>The current 5.5% NAV discount is below historical norms, but insider buying and improved fundamentals suggest scope for re-rating as market sentiment stabilizes around Industrivärden’s core assets.</li>
</ul>


Industrivärden offers cost-efficient, long-term exposure to Swedish industrial blue chips, with a high-quality balance sheet and 21% upside potential to our NAV-based target price of SEK 380.2.
While the portfolio remains concentrated in five core holdings, recent underperformance has opened a value gap; Volvo and Sandvik remain key drivers of upside in a cyclical rebound.
The current 5.5% NAV discount is below historical norms, but insider buying and improved fundamentals suggest scope for re-rating as market sentiment stabilizes around Industrivärden’s core assets.


Industrivärden's Q1 2025: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-10/asia-pulp-paper-is-said-to-bid-for-stake-in-tissue-maker-vinda#xj4y7vzkg" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> Asia Pulp &amp; Paper is the latest party to have expressed interest in acquiring <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/essity-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28203:1" rel="noopener">Essity (ESSITYB SS)</a>’s controlling <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinda-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:475:1" rel="noopener">Vinda International (3331 HK)</a> stake at more than HK$20 per share.</li>
<li>Vinda has three substantial shareholders. We think the most likely structure is a bidder acquiring Essity’s stake, which would trigger a mandatory general offer.</li>
<li>Vinda's recent update points to improving growth and margins. Peers and historical multiples imply a fair price range of HK$21-26 per share, a 7-32% premium to the last close.</li>
</ul>


Bloomberg reported Asia Pulp &amp; Paper is the latest party to have expressed interest in acquiring Essity (ESSITYB SS)’s controlling Vinda International (3331 HK) stake at more than HK$20 per share.
Vinda has three substantial shareholders. We think the most likely structure is a bidder acquiring Essity’s stake, which would trigger a mandatory general offer.
Vinda's recent update points to improving growth and margins. Peers and historical multiples imply a fair price range of HK$21-26 per share, a 7-32% premium to the last close.


Vinda International (3331 HK): Essity’s Stake Attracts More Potential Bidders

<ul>
<li>NAV of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrivarden-ab-8f0a0f6c-a595-41f6-a032-9b4820474704" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43732:1" rel="noopener">Industrivarden (INDUC SS)</a> was c. SEK 160 bn (SEK 370/share) on December 31. NAV increased by 6% during FY 2024. 5-Y total return 78% (OMX30, 64%).</li>
<li>Industrivärden C shares are trading at a 3.9% discount to NAV (vs. 7.4% average for last 5-years). It seems risky to bet on a further discount reduction, rather a reversal.</li>
<li>My target NAV is SEK 171 bn. My TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 5% discount to NAV, is SEK 376.5 (4.5% downside).</li>
</ul>


NAV of Industrivarden (INDUC SS) was c. SEK 160 bn (SEK 370/share) on December 31. NAV increased by 6% during FY 2024. 5-Y total return 78% (OMX30, 64%).
Industrivärden C shares are trading at a 3.9% discount to NAV (vs. 7.4% average for last 5-years). It seems risky to bet on a further discount reduction, rather a reversal.
My target NAV is SEK 171 bn. My TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 5% discount to NAV, is SEK 376.5 (4.5% downside).


Industrivärden's FY 2024: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication

<ul>
<li>NAV of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrivarden-ab-8f0a0f6c-a595-41f6-a032-9b4820474704" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43732:1" rel="noopener">Industrivarden (INDUC SS)</a> was SEK 162.8 bn (SEK 377/share) on September 30. NAV increased by 8% during first nine months of 2024. 5-Y total return 96.3% (OMX30, 77%).</li>
<li>Industrivärden <strong>C shares are trading at a 2.3% discount to NAV</strong> (vs. 7.9% average for last 5-years). It seems risky to bet on a further discount reduction, rather a reversal.</li>
<li>My target NAV is SEK 169,667 million million. My TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 5% discount to NAV, is SEK 373.2 (3% upside).</li>
</ul>


NAV of Industrivarden (INDUC SS) was SEK 162.8 bn (SEK 377/share) on September 30. NAV increased by 8% during first nine months of 2024. 5-Y total return 96.3% (OMX30, 77%).
Industrivärden C shares are trading at a 2.3% discount to NAV (vs. 7.9% average for last 5-years). It seems risky to bet on a further discount reduction, rather a reversal.
My target NAV is SEK 169,667 million million. My TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 5% discount to NAV, is SEK 373.2 (3% upside).


Industrivärden's Q3: NAV Evolution, (Low) Discount, Target NAV, Replication

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)</li>
<li>We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&amp;P 500, Japan's TOPIX, and Europe's EURO STOXX 50 to "roll over near current or marginally higher levels."</li>
<li>Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.</li>
</ul>


The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)
We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&amp;P 500, Japan's TOPIX, and Europe's EURO STOXX 50 to "roll over near current or marginally higher levels."
Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.


Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

Sweden

Essity Aktiebolag develops, produces, and sells personal care products. The Company offers products such as toilet papers, household towels, handkerchiefs, facial tissues, hand sanitizers, dispensers, wet wipes, and napkins. Essity markets its products globally.

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Essity (ESSITYB SS)

Industrivärden's Q1 2025: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication

Industrivärden offers long-term exposure to Swedish industrial blue chips with potential for upside as market sentiment stabilizes and core assets...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Vinda International (3331 HK): Essity’s Stake Attracts More Potential Bidders

Vinda’s improving performance has supported the increasing list of potential bidders. The most likely bid structure is the acquisition of Essity’s...

Arun George

Industrivärden's FY 2024: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication

Industrivarden's NAV increased by 6% in FY 2024, with a target NAV of SEK 171 bn. C shares trading at a 3.9% discount to NAV, TP for C shares at...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Industrivärden's Q3: NAV Evolution, (Low) Discount, Target NAV, Replication

NAV of Industrivarden (INDUC SS) was SEK 162.8 bn (SEK 377/share) on September 30. NAV increased by 8% during first nine months of 2024. 5-Y total...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

Crude Oil Breaking Below 1.5-Year Support, Yet Another Recessionary Signal; Bearish Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside;...

Vermilion Research

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Industrivärden's Q1 2025: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication

​Industrivärden offers long-term exposure to Swedish industrial blue chips with potential for upside as market sentiment stabilizes and core assets...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Vinda International (3331 HK): Essity’s Stake Attracts More Potential Bidders

Vinda’s improving performance has supported the increasing list of potential bidders. The most likely bid structure is the acquisition of Essity’s...

Arun George

Industrivärden's FY 2024: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication

​Industrivarden's NAV increased by 6% in FY 2024, with a target NAV of SEK 171 bn. C shares trading at a 3.9% discount to NAV, TP for C shares at...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Industrivärden's Q3: NAV Evolution, (Low) Discount, Target NAV, Replication

NAV of Industrivarden (INDUC SS) was SEK 162.8 bn (SEK 377/share) on September 30. NAV increased by 8% during first nine months of 2024. 5-Y total...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

Crude Oil Breaking Below 1.5-Year Support, Yet Another Recessionary Signal; Bearish Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside;...

Vermilion Research

Industrivärden offers long-term exposure to Swedish industrial blue chips with potential for upside as market sentiment stabilizes and core assets...

Industrivarden's NAV increased by 6% in FY 2024, with a target NAV of SEK 171 bn. C shares trading at a 3.9% discount to NAV, TP for C shares at...