Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Monthly surveys include the following store buyers and merchants: Sunshine DFS, Galeries Lafayette Beijing, Lane Crawford HK, Vivienne Westwood, Beijing Yintai Center, Shanghai IFC Malls, Daigou merchants, regional merchant associations; ecommerce service providers</p>

Monthly surveys include the following store buyers and merchants: Sunshine DFS, Galeries Lafayette Beijing, Lane Crawford HK, Vivienne Westwood, Beijing Yintai Center, Shanghai IFC Malls, Daigou merchants, regional merchant associations; ecommerce service providers

Luxury Brand Retail Survey in China – Q2 2019 (LVMH, Kering, NKE, EL)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>In this report we outline important technical levels to watch for U.S. indexes and highlight several negative developments which lead us to a more cautious outlook. We also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within the Consumer Staples and Materials Sectors </p>

In this report we outline important technical levels to watch for U.S. indexes and highlight several negative developments which lead us to a more cautious outlook. We also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within the Consumer Staples and Materials Sectors 

U.S. Equity Strategy: Outlook Deteriorating; Upgrading Staples

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Estée Lauder and Puig terminate merger talks, confirming that financing, governance and integration complexity ultimately outweighed strategic rationale despite months of negotiations and advanced work on structure and funding.</li>
<li>Expansion had indicated Charlotte Tilbury’s change-of-control demands became financially unworkable, validating concerns that Puig’s decentralized ownership structures and earn-outs materially complicated execution and valuation.</li>
<li>Puig should retrace toward standalone valuation, while Estée Lauder’s sharp relief rally confirms investors viewed dilution, leverage and integration risk as the dominant considerations.</li>
</ul>


Estée Lauder and Puig terminate merger talks, confirming that financing, governance and integration complexity ultimately outweighed strategic rationale despite months of negotiations and advanced work on structure and funding.
Expansion had indicated Charlotte Tilbury’s change-of-control demands became financially unworkable, validating concerns that Puig’s decentralized ownership structures and earn-outs materially complicated execution and valuation.
Puig should retrace toward standalone valuation, while Estée Lauder’s sharp relief rally confirms investors viewed dilution, leverage and integration risk as the dominant considerations.


Estée Lauder / Puig: Talks Collapse as Execution Risk Prevails

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

<div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption"><blockquote><p><em>‘“I try to use a facial pack every night,” says Mr. Kim, 28 years old, who now works at an office in Seoul. “It’s been a daily routine since my time in the military.” South Korea is a force in the global beauty industry and its carefully groomed pop idols have become global stars. And for many guys here, the gateway to face serums and 10 step skin care regimens is their time as military conscripts. During his service, Mr. Kim developed a routine while posted at an observation post along the barbed wire fences of the inter-Korean demilitarized zone.’ </em></p></blockquote></div><div class="content-remarks"><p><a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-secret-to-surviving-military-service-moisturizer-foam-cleanser-cucumber-face-mask-1535034194" target="_blank">WSJ article</a> on the elaborate skincare rituals of S. Korean men</p></div><blockquote>
<em>“Fiscal year 2018 was an outstanding year for our company. By focusing on strategic priorities and investing in our multiple engines of growth, we delivered double-digit sales and earnings per share gains in all four quarters. In constant currency full year sales rose 13%, nearly twice the rate of global prestige beauty and diluted EPS increased 24%. What made our performance particularly strong were our over achievements in Asia and in Skin Care globally. </em><em>” </em>
</blockquote><div class="content-remarks"><p>Fabrizio Freda, CEO Estee Lauder</p></div><div class="content-remarks">
<blockquote><p><em>‘But the market and gender norms are changing, with cosmetics no longer seen as exclusively for women and male celebrities showing that it is OK for men to dab on a bit of blush. Jiang says a firm that manages bloggers pays him about 5,000 yuan (US$730) per month to feature products from cosmetics companies. Increasingly, foreign firms like La Mer and Aesop work with video bloggers such as Lan Haoyi, to promote their products to his nearly 1.4 million followers.</em>’</p></blockquote>
<p>From a recent SCMP article</p>
</div>

‘“I try to use a facial pack every night,” says Mr. Kim, 28 years old, who now works at an office in Seoul. “It’s been a daily routine since my time in the military.” South Korea is a force in the global beauty industry and its carefully groomed pop idols have become global stars. And for many guys here, the gateway to face serums and 10 step skin care regimens is their time as military conscripts. During his service, Mr. Kim developed a routine while posted at an observation post along the barbed wire fences of the inter-Korean demilitarized zone.’ WSJ article on the elaborate skincare rituals of S. Korean men
“Fiscal year 2018 was an outstanding year for our company. By focusing on strategic priorities and investing in our multiple engines of growth, we delivered double-digit sales and earnings per share gains in all four quarters. In constant currency full year sales rose 13%, nearly twice the rate of global prestige beauty and diluted EPS increased 24%. What made our performance particularly strong were our over achievements in Asia and in Skin Care globally. ” 
Fabrizio Freda, CEO Estee Lauder
‘But the market and gender norms are changing, with cosmetics no longer seen as exclusively for women and male celebrities showing that it is OK for men to dab on a bit of blush. Jiang says a firm that manages bloggers pays him about 5,000 yuan (US$730) per month to feature products from cosmetics companies. Increasingly, foreign firms like La Mer and Aesop work with video bloggers such as Lan Haoyi, to promote their products to his nearly 1.4 million followers.’
From a recent SCMP article


Korean Men Leading Next Asian Skincare Boom

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

<ul><li>Men’s grooming in the UK grew by 3% in 2017 to reach GBP1.8 billion.</li><li>Men’s skin care was one of the principal drivers of growth, while men’s shaving continues to decline.</li><li>Unilever led ahead of Procter &amp; Gamble with 17% and 16% value shares respectively in 2017.</li><li>Retailers pursued an everyday low pricing strategy causing downward pressure on unit prices.</li><li>Men’s grooming is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3% in value terms at constant 2017 prices over the forecast period to reach GBP2.1 billion by 2022.</li></ul>

Men’s grooming in the UK grew by 3% in 2017 to reach GBP1.8 billion.Men’s skin care was one of the principal drivers of growth, while men’s shaving continues to decline.Unilever led ahead of Procter &amp; Gamble with 17% and 16% value shares respectively in 2017.Retailers pursued an everyday low pricing strategy causing downward pressure on unit prices.Men’s grooming is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3% in value terms at constant 2017 prices over the forecast period to reach GBP2.1 billion by 2022.

Sector Capsule: Men's Grooming in the United Kingdom

United States

The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. manufactures and markets a wide range of skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products.  The Company's products are sold in countries and territories around the world.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Estee Lauder Companies Cl A (EL US)

Luxury Brand Retail Survey in China – Q2 2019 (LVMH, Kering, NKE, EL)

Monthly surveys include the following store buyers and merchants: Sunshine DFS, Galeries Lafayette Beijing, Lane Crawford HK, Vivienne Westwood,...

JL Warren Capital

U.S. Equity Strategy: Outlook Deteriorating; Upgrading Staples

In this report we outline important technical levels to watch for U.S. indexes and highlight several negative developments which lead us to a more...

Vermilion Research

Estée Lauder / Puig: Talks Collapse as Execution Risk Prevails

Estée Lauder and Puig terminate merger talks after financing, governance and Charlotte Tilbury-related complications proved too difficult to resolve.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Korean Men Leading Next Asian Skincare Boom

WSJ article on the elaborate skincare rituals of S. Korean men “Fiscal year 2018 was an outstanding year for our company. By focusing on strategic...

Sean Maher

Sector Capsule: Men's Grooming in the United Kingdom

Men’s grooming in the UK grew by 3% in 2017 to reach GBP1.8 billion. Men’s skin care was one of the principal drivers of growth, while men’s...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)