Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Premium beauty and personal care grew by 25% in current value terms to reach CNY84.5 billion in 2017.</li><li>Premium outperformed mass beauty and personal care in 2017, thanks to stronger consumer purchasing power.</li><li>Accelerated value growth is underpinned by consumers trading up to quality products in 2017.</li><li>L’Oréal China consolidated its leadership in 2017.</li><li>Premium beauty and personal care is expected to record a CAGR of 11% at constant 2017 prices to reach CNY143.9 billion in 2022.</li></ul>

Premium beauty and personal care grew by 25% in current value terms to reach CNY84.5 billion in 2017.Premium outperformed mass beauty and personal care in 2017, thanks to stronger consumer purchasing power.Accelerated value growth is underpinned by consumers trading up to quality products in 2017.L’Oréal China consolidated its leadership in 2017.Premium beauty and personal care is expected to record a CAGR of 11% at constant 2017 prices to reach CNY143.9 billion in 2022.

Sector Capsule: Premium Beauty and Personal Care in China

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Price indications of €18–19 per share emerge for Puig, below prior ~€20 expectations, reducing upside to ~4–7% and shifting the trade from upside-driven optionality toward execution and timing.</li>
<li>Structure now clearer: mixed cash and shares, €3–3.5bn cash requirement, and super-voting share exchange between families; potential ~20% dilution keeps focus on equity issuance and financing constraints.</li>
<li>At ~€17.8, Puig implies ~75-80% deal probability (vs ~50–60% previously), with risk/reward now driven by completion, shareholder mix and timing rather than further re-rating.</li>
</ul>


Price indications of €18–19 per share emerge for Puig, below prior ~€20 expectations, reducing upside to ~4–7% and shifting the trade from upside-driven optionality toward execution and timing.
Structure now clearer: mixed cash and shares, €3–3.5bn cash requirement, and super-voting share exchange between families; potential ~20% dilution keeps focus on equity issuance and financing constraints.
At ~€17.8, Puig implies ~75-80% deal probability (vs ~50–60% previously), with risk/reward now driven by completion, shareholder mix and timing rather than further re-rating.


Estée Lauder / Puig: Price Discovery Emerges, Upside Compresses

Quantamental Researcher, JD Finance Quantamental Research

Ben Li

Quantamental Researcher

JD Finance Quantamental Research

JD Finance Big Data Quantamental Research is a data and insight provider of proprietary online eCommerce data, under the arm of big data analytics team in JD Finance. JD Finance is an affiliate of US listed JD, a leading eCommerce player in China. It is one of the largest fintech companies in China, with business spanning across consumer loans, fund distribution, and quantitative strategy research. 

<ul class="">
<li>China online cosmetics sales has accelerated during the June (6.18-the biggest mid-year online sales event) promotion.</li>
<li>Japanese and Korean brands outperformed.</li>
<li>Korean brands recovered strongly as China-Korea tension over THAAD eased.  </li>
</ul><p>China online Cosmetics sector has shown a strong growth trend in recent months. Sales further accelerated during June promotions and y/y growth reached mid double-digits, up 8 ppts from a strong May. July sales slowed significantly with y/y growth dropping to under…</p>


China online cosmetics sales has accelerated during the June (6.18-the biggest mid-year online sales event) promotion.
Japanese and Korean brands outperformed.
Korean brands recovered strongly as China-Korea tension over THAAD eased.  
China online Cosmetics sector has shown a strong growth trend in recent months. Sales further accelerated during June promotions and y/y growth reached mid double-digits, up 8 ppts from a strong May. July sales slowed significantly with y/y growth dropping to under…

2Q17 China Online Cosmetic Sales – Korean Brands Outperformed Despite Tension

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

<p>Should we be concerned that a Chinese pork producer is buying the largest hog producer in the US? Growing concerns over food safety and problems with antibiotic resistance due to misuse should be taken seriously.</p>

Should we be concerned that a Chinese pork producer is buying the largest hog producer in the US? Growing concerns over food safety and problems with antibiotic resistance due to misuse should be taken seriously.

<ul>
<li>Estée Lauder mandates €5bn financing package, covering cash consideration and Puig debt refinancing, marking a clear step toward execution and materially reducing a key constraint in the potential transaction.</li>
<li>Structure increasingly visible: OPA with mixed cash and shares, mandatory cash option for minorities, and special voting shares for founding families, aligning with prior base case on governance and ownership.</li>
<li>Puig +5% reflects rising deal probability; stock still below ~€20.2 implied bid, but upside increasingly driven by execution and terms as valuation and dilution remain the key outstanding variables.</li>
</ul>


Estée Lauder mandates €5bn financing package, covering cash consideration and Puig debt refinancing, marking a clear step toward execution and materially reducing a key constraint in the potential transaction.
Structure increasingly visible: OPA with mixed cash and shares, mandatory cash option for minorities, and special voting shares for founding families, aligning with prior base case on governance and ownership.
Puig +5% reflects rising deal probability; stock still below ~€20.2 implied bid, but upside increasingly driven by execution and terms as valuation and dilution remain the key outstanding variables.


Estée Lauder / Puig: Financing Progress Raises Deal Probability

United States

The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. manufactures and markets a wide range of skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products.  The Company's products are sold in countries and territories around the world.

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Estee Lauder Companies Cl A (EL US)

Sector Capsule: Premium Beauty and Personal Care in China

Premium beauty and personal care grew by 25% in current value terms to reach CNY84.5 billion in 2017. Premium outperformed mass beauty and...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Estée Lauder / Puig: Price Discovery Emerges, Upside Compresses

Structure now clearer: mixed cash&shares, €3–3.5bn cash requirement, and super-voting share exchange between families; potential ~20% dilution...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

2Q17 China Online Cosmetic Sales – Korean Brands Outperformed Despite Tension

China online cosmetics sales has accelerated during the June (6.18-the biggest mid-year online sales event) promotion. Japanese and Korean brands...

Ben Li

Issues Raised by WH Group and US Pork

Should we be concerned that a Chinese pork producer is buying the largest hog producer in the US? Growing concerns over food safety and problems...

Bixmoor

Estée Lauder / Puig: Financing Progress Raises Deal Probability

Estée Lauder mandates €5bn financing for a potential Puig offer, improving deal visibility. Structure is clearer, but valuation and dilution remain...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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