Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Powell’s remarks in the Wall Street Journal interview this week were quite interesting, and markets seem to have noticed: we have seen quite some wild moves, but again the most relevant price action is happening under the surface.</li><li>In such a choppy market environment, systematic risk management techniques and a data-driven investment approach are key to tell the forest from the trees and reduce drawdowns in your portfolio.</li><li>Powell played the hawkish horn again, and markets are reacting in quite some interesting ways.</li></ul>

Powell’s remarks in the Wall Street Journal interview this week were quite interesting, and markets seem to have noticed: we have seen quite some wild moves, but again the most relevant price action is happening under the surface.In such a choppy market environment, systematic risk management techniques and a data-driven investment approach are key to tell the forest from the trees and reduce drawdowns in your portfolio.Powell played the hawkish horn again, and markets are reacting in quite some interesting ways.

Crypto Investing and Decentralized Finance, Coinstack

Coinstack

Crypto Investing and Decentralized Finance

Coinstack is published weekly by Ryan Allis. He was previously CEO and Co-founder of iContact and led the company from 300 employees, 70,000 customers, and $50M in annual sales and an exit for $169M. Ryan was an angel investor in SpaceX, LendingClub, Change.org, Kuli Kuli, and Catalant. Today, Ryan advises companies and governments on blockchain-related projects and is the Chairman of Hive.org, a global community of 3,500 purpose-driven leaders from 130 countries making a positive impact in the world. Ryan holds an MBA from Harvard Business School where he was Co-President of the Harvard Social Enterprise Club and a fellow of the Harvard Graduate School Leadership Institute.

Crypto

<ul><li>Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs snapped their longest losing streak on record, pulling in a combined $281.8 million for the week after eight straight weeks (week ending July 12) that drained $8.26 billion.</li><li>Renewed US-Iran hostilities rattled markets midweek, with Bitcoin sliding to roughly $61,492 on July 8 after Trump declared the ceasefire over, before recovering to $64,400 (intraday high of $64,658.97 on July 10) by Friday on a short squeeze.</li><li>Strategy sold a record 3,588 BTC for $216 million, its largest disposal ever, to fund preferred stock dividends, a marked shift from years of never selling.</li></ul>

Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs snapped their longest losing streak on record, pulling in a combined $281.8 million for the week after eight straight weeks (week ending July 12) that drained $8.26 billion.Renewed US-Iran hostilities rattled markets midweek, with Bitcoin sliding to roughly $61,492 on July 8 after Trump declared the ceasefire over, before recovering to $64,400 (intraday high of $64,658.97 on July 10) by Friday on a short squeeze.Strategy sold a record 3,588 BTC for $216 million, its largest disposal ever, to fund preferred stock dividends, a marked shift from years of never selling.

<ul><li>Bitcoin rebounded to roughly $62,600-$63,000, up 4.5% on the week, after touching a 21-month low near $58,000 on Wednesday.</li><li>June nonfarm payrolls printed just +57,000 versus 115,000 expected, closing the door on a near-term rate hike and reviving cut odds.</li><li>US spot Bitcoin ETFs snapped a 10-day, $2.73 billion outflow streak with a $221.7 million inflow, and Ethereum ETFs turned positive after nine straight outflows.</li></ul>

Bitcoin rebounded to roughly $62,600-$63,000, up 4.5% on the week, after touching a 21-month low near $58,000 on Wednesday.June nonfarm payrolls printed just +57,000 versus 115,000 expected, closing the door on a near-term rate hike and reviving cut odds.US spot Bitcoin ETFs snapped a 10-day, $2.73 billion outflow streak with a $221.7 million inflow, and Ethereum ETFs turned positive after nine straight outflows.

<ul><li>Bitcoin closed near $60,000, down 6.3% on the week and roughly 52% from the October 2025 all-time high.</li><li>May PCE printed 4.1% headline and 3.4% core on June 25, the hottest read since April 2023, triggering $1.26 billion in liquidations.</li><li>Strategy’s enterprise mNAV broke below 1.0 on June 26 for the first time, severing the equity accretion channel for its 847,363-BTC treasury.</li></ul>

Bitcoin closed near $60,000, down 6.3% on the week and roughly 52% from the October 2025 all-time high.May PCE printed 4.1% headline and 3.4% core on June 25, the hottest read since April 2023, triggering $1.26 billion in liquidations.Strategy’s enterprise mNAV broke below 1.0 on June 26 for the first time, severing the equity accretion channel for its 847,363-BTC treasury.

<ul><li>Bitcoin closed at $64,012, down 0.6% as the Fed went hawkish and Digital Credit cracked.</li><li>June 17 FOMC delivered a hawkish dot plot: 9 of 18 officials now project a 2026 hike; median dot rose to 3.8% from 3.4%.</li><li>New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh dismantled forward guidance and announced five task forces to overhaul Fed operations.</li></ul>

Bitcoin closed at $64,012, down 0.6% as the Fed went hawkish and Digital Credit cracked.June 17 FOMC delivered a hawkish dot plot: 9 of 18 officials now project a 2026 hike; median dot rose to 3.8% from 3.4%.New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh dismantled forward guidance and announced five task forces to overhaul Fed operations.

United States

Ethereum is an open-source, public, blockchain-based distributed computing platform featuring smart contract (scripting) functionality. It provides a decentralized Turing-complete virtual machine, the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), which can execute scripts using an international network of public nodes. Ethereum also provides a cryptocurrency token called "ether", which can be transferred between accounts and used to compensate participant nodes for computations performed. "Gas", an internal transaction pricing mechanism, is used to mitigate spam and allocate resources on the network.

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Let The Macro Polar Stars Guide You

Powell’s remarks in the Wall Street Journal interview this week were quite interesting, and markets seem to have noticed: we have seen quite some...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

8-Week Losing Streak. Over.

Strategy sold a record 3,588 BTC for $216 million, its largest disposal ever, to fund preferred stock dividends, a marked shift from years of never...

Coinstack

57K Jobs. Crypto's Comeback Week?

US spot Bitcoin ETFs snapped a 10-day, $2.73 billion outflow streak with a $221.7 million inflow, and Ethereum ETFs turned positive after nine...

Coinstack

mNAV 0.99x: The Number that Matters

Bitcoin closed near $60,000, down 6.3% on the week and roughly 52% from the October 2025 all-time high.May PCE printed 4.1% headline and 3.4% core...

Coinstack

Warsh Kills 2026 Rate Cut Hopes

Bitcoin closed at $64,012, down 0.6% as the Fed went hawkish and Digital Credit cracked. June 17 FOMC delivered a hawkish dot plot: 9 of 18...

Coinstack

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