Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aihuishou" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33426:1" rel="noopener">Aihuishou (RERE US)</a> (AHS), China’s largest pre-owned consumer electronics transactions and services platform, aims to raise up to US$1bn via a US listing. It is backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a>, Morningside and Tiger Global.</p></div><div>
<p>A total of 26.1m consumer products, worth RMB22.8bn, were transacted by AHS over twelve months ending Mar 2021. It had over 755 offline stores across 172 cities. According to CIC, it had a 6.6% market share in terms of GMV for pre-owned electronics and 8.7% market share in terms of number of pre-owned devices transacted in 2020. As per CIC, its GMV for electronics and number of devices transacted in 2020 were both greater than the next five largest platforms combined, as per CIC. </p>
<p>We covered some aspects of the deal in our earlier note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/aihuishou-pre-ipo-mostly-positive-pre-owned-but-well-loved" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AiHuiShou Pre-IPO - Mostly Positive - Pre-Owned but Well Loved</a>. </p>
<p>In this note, we will talk about valuations.</p>
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Aihuishou (RERE US) (AHS), China’s largest pre-owned consumer electronics transactions and services platform, aims to raise up to US$1bn via a US listing. It is backed by JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US), Morningside and Tiger Global.
A total of 26.1m consumer products, worth RMB22.8bn, were transacted by AHS over twelve months ending Mar 2021. It had over 755 offline stores across 172 cities. According to CIC, it had a 6.6% market share in terms of GMV for pre-owned electronics and 8.7% market share in terms of number of pre-owned devices transacted in 2020. As per CIC, its GMV for electronics and number of devices transacted in 2020 were both greater than the next five largest platforms combined, as per CIC. 
We covered some aspects of the deal in our earlier note, AiHuiShou Pre-IPO - Mostly Positive - Pre-Owned but Well Loved. 
In this note, we will talk about valuations.


AiHuiShou Pre-IPO - First Stab at Valuation

Consumer Discretionary / Industrials

Henry Kwon

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>CPNG's shares declined by 9.3% on May 13, the day following its 1Q21 earnings release, but has since recovered its loss as of close on May 17. A key question should be whether this represents a dead cat bounce, or whether it represents the beginning of a sustainable share price recovery?</p><p>Without reliable technical parameters established, we mainly rely on two factors, namely Fibonnaci retracement levels and a DCF analysis based on current consensus forecasts to determine how much growth CPNG would have to generate in order to justify its current share price levels.</p><ul>
<li>$39.95 represents the stock's 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level which became resistance since it was breached on May 6 on intra-day basis and confirmed on May 7 close.</li>
<li>Taking current consensus 3-year EBITDA and Free Cash Flow Forecasts, with a 20% target Debt ratio in the mix, a DCF analysis suggests that current share price level would be sustainable on a terminal growth range of 9.6-10.1%. A terminal growth rate of 2% would suggest a $5.00 share price, on the other hand.</li>
</ul><p>In a flattening yield curve environment, we believe the market would not have much objections to 8-9% terminal growth assumptions at a practical level even though analysts would sound alarm bells. However, at this juncture we believe investors should pay heed to whether inflationary concerns will continue to lead to a steepening yield curve, thereby creating continuing headwinds for CPNG's share price performance over the next 3 to 6 months.</p>

CPNG's shares declined by 9.3% on May 13, the day following its 1Q21 earnings release, but has since recovered its loss as of close on May 17. A key question should be whether this represents a dead cat bounce, or whether it represents the beginning of a sustainable share price recovery?Without reliable technical parameters established, we mainly rely on two factors, namely Fibonnaci retracement levels and a DCF analysis based on current consensus forecasts to determine how much growth CPNG would have to generate in order to justify its current share price levels.
$39.95 represents the stock's 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level which became resistance since it was breached on May 6 on intra-day basis and confirmed on May 7 close.
Taking current consensus 3-year EBITDA and Free Cash Flow Forecasts, with a 20% target Debt ratio in the mix, a DCF analysis suggests that current share price level would be sustainable on a terminal growth range of 9.6-10.1%. A terminal growth rate of 2% would suggest a $5.00 share price, on the other hand.
In a flattening yield curve environment, we believe the market would not have much objections to 8-9% terminal growth assumptions at a practical level even though analysts would sound alarm bells. However, at this juncture we believe investors should pay heed to whether inflationary concerns will continue to lead to a steepening yield curve, thereby creating continuing headwinds for CPNG's share price performance over the next 3 to 6 months.

CPNG: Dead Cat Bounce or a More Sustainable Price Recovery in the Cards?

We aggregate key quotes from earnings, The Transcript

The Transcript

We aggregate key quotes from earnings

Aggregate Key Quotes from Earnings

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The economy is booming and everyone should enjoy it. The American economy is benefitting from tremendous amounts of pent-up demand and in some of the hardest-hit industries' activity is beginning to tick back up above 2019 levels. Along with that boom, there are clear signs of inflation and concerns about overheating. Even Janet Yellen seemed concerned for a few hours last week.</p>

The economy is booming and everyone should enjoy it. The American economy is benefitting from tremendous amounts of pent-up demand and in some of the hardest-hit industries' activity is beginning to tick back up above 2019 levels. Along with that boom, there are clear signs of inflation and concerns about overheating. Even Janet Yellen seemed concerned for a few hours last week.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coupang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28425:1" rel="noopener">Coupang (CPNG US)</a> is the largest e-commerce platform in South Korea, according to Euromonitor. Coupang is best known for Rocket Delivery, which provides free, next-day delivery for orders placed any time of the day.</p></div><div><p>Coupang has priced its IPO at $35 per share, above the previously upsized IPO price range of $32-34 per share. The number of the offer shares has increased from 120 million to 130 million shares due to a 10 million shares increase in the secondary tranche. At the final IPO price of $35 per share, Coupang will have a market cap of $60 billion. </p></div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-ipo-initiation-delivering-the-goods" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48125" rel="noopener">Coupang IPO Initiation: Delivering the Goods</a>, we opined that Coupang's fundamentals tick all the right boxes and worth a look, in our view. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48708" rel="noopener">Coupang IPO: Valuation Insights</a> we noted was attractively priced for its growth potential vs global e-commerce peers at the original IPO price range of $27-30 per share. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-ipo-upsized-deal-size" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48991" rel="noopener">Coupang IPO: Upsized Deal Size</a>, Coupang remained attractive at the upsized IPO price range of $32-34 per share.</p></div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target of $39.46 per share. As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability, we present a sensitivity table to help investors gauge where target prices could head. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price has reasonable upside potential. </p></div></div>

Coupang (CPNG US) is the largest e-commerce platform in South Korea, according to Euromonitor. Coupang is best known for Rocket Delivery, which provides free, next-day delivery for orders placed any time of the day.Coupang has priced its IPO at $35 per share, above the previously upsized IPO price range of $32-34 per share. The number of the offer shares has increased from 120 million to 130 million shares due to a 10 million shares increase in the secondary tranche. At the final IPO price of $35 per share, Coupang will have a market cap of $60 billion. In Coupang IPO Initiation: Delivering the Goods, we opined that Coupang's fundamentals tick all the right boxes and worth a look, in our view. In Coupang IPO: Valuation Insights we noted was attractively priced for its growth potential vs global e-commerce peers at the original IPO price range of $27-30 per share. In Coupang IPO: Upsized Deal Size, Coupang remained attractive at the upsized IPO price range of $32-34 per share.Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target of $39.46 per share. As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability, we present a sensitivity table to help investors gauge where target prices could head. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price has reasonable upside potential. 

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

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<p><strong>Our base case valuation of Wish is an implied EV of $12.3 billion, implied market cap of $14.4 billion, and implied price per share of $24.50 per share. This represents just a 2% upside to the high end of the IPO price range of $24 per share. Given such a low upside, we would pass on this IPO.</strong></p>
<p><strong>One of the long-term concerns we have about Wish is the fact that the number one priority of the company is price. This is a double-edged sword.</strong> By focusing on price as the number one priority, the company has been able to gain a tremendous number of customers that put price as their number one importance. Nonetheless, it may be difficult for the company to generate relatively high profit margins in the long run since Wish may have difficulties in gaining customers that value quality over price when purchasing products through mobile or online platforms.</p>
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Our base case valuation of Wish is an implied EV of $12.3 billion, implied market cap of $14.4 billion, and implied price per share of $24.50 per share. This represents just a 2% upside to the high end of the IPO price range of $24 per share. Given such a low upside, we would pass on this IPO.
One of the long-term concerns we have about Wish is the fact that the number one priority of the company is price. This is a double-edged sword. By focusing on price as the number one priority, the company has been able to gain a tremendous number of customers that put price as their number one importance. Nonetheless, it may be difficult for the company to generate relatively high profit margins in the long run since Wish may have difficulties in gaining customers that value quality over price when purchasing products through mobile or online platforms.


Wish IPO Valuation Analysis: Focus on Price Is a Double-Edged Sword

United States

Etsy, Inc. provides e-commerce services. The Company offers handmade and vintage items, art, and supplies, as well as regular items such as clothing, housewares, paper goods, candles, bags and purses, music, and wood working items. Etsy serves users throughout the United States.

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Etsy Inc (ETSY US)

AiHuiShou Pre-IPO - First Stab at Valuation

Aihuishou (RERE US), China’s largest pre-owned consumer electronics transactions and services platform, aims to raise up to US$1bn via a US...

Sumeet Singh

CPNG: Dead Cat Bounce or a More Sustainable Price Recovery in the Cards?

We look at Fibonnaci Retracement levels and DCF analysis using consensus forecast to see whether price recovery in the last 2 trading sessions...

Henry Kwon

The Transcript 05.10.21: Pent-up Demand

The economy is booming and everyone should enjoy it. The American economy is benefitting from tremendous amounts of pent-up demand and in some of...

The Transcript

Coupang IPO: Trading Debut

Coupang has priced its IPO at $35 per share, above the previously upsized IPO price range of $32-34 per share. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows...

Arun George

Wish IPO Valuation Analysis: Focus on Price Is a Double-Edged Sword

Our base case valuation of Wish is an implied price per share of $24.50 per share. This represents just a 2% upside to the high end of the IPO...

Douglas Kim

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