Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><p><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makuake-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29281:1" rel="noopener">Makuake Inc (4479 JP)</a> </span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"> is a unique online platform that helps companies to launch new products and services online. The seven-year-old company is a product of the Cyberagent incubation umbrella and debuted on Mothers in December 2019. The company's core business is the </span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">Makuake</span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"> platform, which supports new product launches, brings them in front of buyers/supporters, before formal market release. The </span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">Makuake</span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"> Incubator Studio (MIS) </span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">helps</span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"> firms with strong R&amp;D to develop and commercialize products via their platform. </span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335559739":160,"335559740":360}'> </span></p></div><div><p><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">This note looks at the recent Q4 results, while the following note discusses in more detail the Market, Moat and Management.: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/small-cap-growth-makuake-4479-launching-innovative-ideas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43337" rel="noopener">Small Cap Growth: Makuake (4479) - Launching Innovative Ideas</a> </span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335559739":160,"335559740":360}'> </span></p></div>

Makuake Inc (4479 JP)  is a unique online platform that helps companies to launch new products and services online. The seven-year-old company is a product of the Cyberagent incubation umbrella and debuted on Mothers in December 2019. The company's core business is the Makuake platform, which supports new product launches, brings them in front of buyers/supporters, before formal market release. The Makuake Incubator Studio (MIS) helps firms with strong R&amp;D to develop and commercialize products via their platform.  This note looks at the recent Q4 results, while the following note discusses in more detail the Market, Moat and Management.: Small Cap Growth: Makuake (4479) - Launching Innovative Ideas  

Small Cap Growth: Makuake (4479) - Innovative Ideas Drive Strong Q4 Sales

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<p><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makuake-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29281:1" rel="noopener">Makuake Inc (4479 JP)</a>  is a unique online platform that launches new products and services online. </span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335559739":160,"335559740":259}'> </span></p>
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<p><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">The seven-year-old company is a product of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)</a>  incubation umbrella and debuted on TSE Mothers in December 2019. Since then, sales have grown 128% to reach ¥2.1bn and operating profit +843% to ¥0.53bn. </span></p>
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<p><strong><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">What does it do?</span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"> </span> </strong></p>
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<span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">Makuake’s</span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"> platform helps to launch new products, bring them in front of buyers (or supporters), before a formal market release. </span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335559739":160,"335559740":259}'> <span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">Makuake takes 20% of Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) on transactions.</span></span>
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<span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">Makuake</span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"> Incubator Studio (MIS) helps firms with strong R&amp;D to develop and commercialise products via their platform.</span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"> </span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">MIS charges a fixed fee for product development consultation plus 20% of GMV. </span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335559739":160,"335559740":259}'> </span>
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<div>Makuake's <a href="https://www.makuake.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">website</a> is home to a wide-range of products, from well-known brands such as <em>Asics</em> to entrepreneurs looking to raise funds for their creative ideas. Here is a selection of weird and wonderful products ranging from a "wallet that you cannot lose", to a "laptop carrying T-shirt", and a new "iPhone holder" for your car. </div>
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Makuake Inc (4479 JP)  is a unique online platform that launches new products and services online.  


The seven-year-old company is a product of the CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)  incubation umbrella and debuted on TSE Mothers in December 2019. Since then, sales have grown 128% to reach ¥2.1bn and operating profit +843% to ¥0.53bn. 


What does it do?  




Makuake’s platform helps to launch new products, bring them in front of buyers (or supporters), before a formal market release.  Makuake takes 20% of Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) on transactions.


Makuake Incubator Studio (MIS) helps firms with strong R&amp;D to develop and commercialise products via their platform. MIS charges a fixed fee for product development consultation plus 20% of GMV.  



Makuake's website is home to a wide-range of products, from well-known brands such as Asics to entrepreneurs looking to raise funds for their creative ideas. Here is a selection of weird and wonderful products ranging from a "wallet that you cannot lose", to a "laptop carrying T-shirt", and a new "iPhone holder" for your car. 





Small Cap Growth: Makuake (4479) - Launching Innovative Ideas

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<p>We have always enjoyed following IAC because we share a worldview with management about investing behind THE major secular trend in the world today…offline to online transition of massive TAMs. Even the largest TAMs in the world – groceries, entertainment, autos, commerce, finance, real estate, etc. are still incredibly early in the long term replatforming of how the global economy functions.</p><p>COVID has turbocharged these trends, which may be why we’ve seen such massive outperformance by the stocks at the forefront of these trends.</p><div><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

We have always enjoyed following IAC because we share a worldview with management about investing behind THE major secular trend in the world today…offline to online transition of massive TAMs. Even the largest TAMs in the world – groceries, entertainment, autos, commerce, finance, real estate, etc. are still incredibly early in the long term replatforming of how the global economy functions.COVID has turbocharged these trends, which may be why we’ve seen such massive outperformance by the stocks at the forefront of these trends.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

BigCommerce Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/e-commerce-platform-bigcommerce-sets-terms-for-%24130-million-ipo-2020-07-28" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29196:1" rel="noopener">BigCommerce Holdings Inc (BIGC US)</a> plans to complete its IPO next week. The IPO price range has been determined at $18 to $20. The company plans to offer 6.9 million shares. At the high end of the IPO price (excluding greenshoe option), the company would raise nearly $138 million.</p><p><strong>Our valuation analysis of BigCommerce suggests an implied market cap of $2.3 billion and a target price per share of $30.9, which suggests a 62% upside to the mid-point of the IPO price range of $19.</strong> We are also including BigCommerce in our model stock portfolio. </p><p>Our valuation is based on P/S, using our estimated sales of $189.4 million in 2021 and P/S multiple of 12x. We used fully diluted shares of 74 million shares to derive our target price valuation. Our P/S valuation multiple of 12x represents a 20% discount to the average P/S valuation of the comps in 2021. It also represents a 67% discount to the P/S multiple of 36.7x for Shopify.</p>

BigCommerce Holdings Inc (BIGC US) plans to complete its IPO next week. The IPO price range has been determined at $18 to $20. The company plans to offer 6.9 million shares. At the high end of the IPO price (excluding greenshoe option), the company would raise nearly $138 million.Our valuation analysis of BigCommerce suggests an implied market cap of $2.3 billion and a target price per share of $30.9, which suggests a 62% upside to the mid-point of the IPO price range of $19. We are also including BigCommerce in our model stock portfolio. Our valuation is based on P/S, using our estimated sales of $189.4 million in 2021 and P/S multiple of 12x. We used fully diluted shares of 74 million shares to derive our target price valuation. Our P/S valuation multiple of 12x represents a 20% discount to the average P/S valuation of the comps in 2021. It also represents a 67% discount to the P/S multiple of 36.7x for Shopify.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<p>Considering the absence of breakdowns for the major indexes and for individual Sectors, along with the Fed covering investors’ backs, we continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe that the path of least resistance remains higher. In this report we outline our bullish case and highlight actionable opportunities across all 12 sectors.</p>

Considering the absence of breakdowns for the major indexes and for individual Sectors, along with the Fed covering investors’ backs, we continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe that the path of least resistance remains higher. In this report we outline our bullish case and highlight actionable opportunities across all 12 sectors.

U.S. Equity Strategy - Bullish Outlook Intact

United States

Etsy, Inc. provides e-commerce services. The Company offers handmade and vintage items, art, and supplies, as well as regular items such as clothing, housewares, paper goods, candles, bags and purses, music, and wood working items. Etsy serves users throughout the United States.

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Etsy Inc (ETSY US)

Small Cap Growth: Makuake (4479) - Innovative Ideas Drive Strong Q4 Sales

Makuake has a unique business model that helps entrepreneurs and companies to launch and commercialise products and services on line. It is scaling...

Mark Chadwick

Small Cap Growth: Makuake (4479) - Launching Innovative Ideas

Makuake is a unique online platform that launches new products and services online. The seven-year-old company is a product of the Cyberagent...

Mark Chadwick

IAC / ANGI 2Q20: Doubling Down

We have always enjoyed following IAC because we share a worldview with management about investing behind THE major secular trend in the world...

Aaron Gabin

BigCommerce IPO Valuation Analysis

BigCommerce Holdings Inc (BIGC US) plans to complete its IPO next week. The IPO price range has been determined at $18 to $20. The company plans to...

Douglas Kim

U.S. Equity Strategy - Bullish Outlook Intact

Considering the absence of breakdowns for the major indexes and for individual Sectors, along with the Fed covering investors’ backs, we continue...

Vermilion Research

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