Podcast on In-depth Business Talks, Speedwell Research

The Synopsis

Podcast on In-depth Business Talks

Speedwell Research

Speedwell Research spends hundreds of hours researching public businesses each month and in "The Synopsis" they share their key learnings. Most business podcasts are superficial and assume their listeners are unsophisticated. In contrast, The Synopsis trusts listeners are interested in learning about complex, industry-specific issues, so long as they are explained clearly. We cover businesses from inception to current day, coupling business analysis and an investors lens. Start listening today to become a better analyst and investor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>US Government shutdown delays September jobs report, impacting Fed policy decisions</li><li>Markets largely unfazed by shutdown, focusing on structural drivers such as interest rates and earnings forecast</li><li>OpenAI's ChatGPT integration with Shopify and Etsy may signal a shift in marketplace model, impacting revenue and customer touchpoints</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

US Government shutdown delays September jobs report, impacting Fed policy decisionsMarkets largely unfazed by shutdown, focusing on structural drivers such as interest rates and earnings forecastOpenAI's ChatGPT integration with Shopify and Etsy may signal a shift in marketplace model, impacting revenue and customer touchpointsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Briefing. Why AI Could Mean the End of the Marketplace Model, Meta's Paranoid "Vibe", Coupang's D...

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Etsy, the global marketplace for unique and creative goods, reported mixed results in its third-quarter 2024 financials, showcasing resolute management efforts amidst macroeconomic uncertainties.</li><li>The continued pursuit of differentiated customer experiences remains central to Etsy's strategy, although headwinds have temporarily impacted its growth metrics, notably the Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS).</li><li>Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.</li></ul>

Etsy, the global marketplace for unique and creative goods, reported mixed results in its third-quarter 2024 financials, showcasing resolute management efforts amidst macroeconomic uncertainties.The continued pursuit of differentiated customer experiences remains central to Etsy's strategy, although headwinds have temporarily impacted its growth metrics, notably the Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS).Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Etsy Inc.: Leveraging Technology for Enhanced Discovery and Personalization! - Major Drivers

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Last Friday, the S&amp;P Index Committee announced the changes to the S&amp;P500, S&amp;P400, S&amp;P600, and other indices, along with the result of a recent consultation on capping methodology.</li>
<li>The result is about US$23bn a side of flows for the major indices</li>
<li>In the S&amp;P500, DELL, PLTR, and ERIE are ADDs. AAL, ETSY, and BIO are DELETEs. But as always, just knowing the names is deceptive. The history matters more.</li>
</ul>


Last Friday, the S&amp;P Index Committee announced the changes to the S&amp;P500, S&amp;P400, S&amp;P600, and other indices, along with the result of a recent consultation on capping methodology.
The result is about US$23bn a side of flows for the major indices
In the S&amp;P500, DELL, PLTR, and ERIE are ADDs. AAL, ETSY, and BIO are DELETEs. But as always, just knowing the names is deceptive. The history matters more.


S&P 500/400/600 Changes - DELL, PLTR, and ERIE Added, AAL, ETSY, BIO Deleted

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Constituent changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a> and weight changes as a result of the market consultation proposals being adopted will result in a round-trip trade of US$31.5bn.</li>
<li>The largest one-way turnover is expected in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/consumer-staples-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27536:1" rel="noopener">Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/materials-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27541:1" rel="noopener">Materials Select Sector SPDR</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/communication-services-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27534:1" rel="noopener">Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund</a>.</li>
<li>The inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/palantir-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27728:1" rel="noopener">Palantir Technologies (PLTR US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dell-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32189:1" rel="noopener">Dell Technologies (DELL US)</a> will add to the buying from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> trackers.</li>
</ul>


Constituent changes to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX and weight changes as a result of the market consultation proposals being adopted will result in a round-trip trade of US$31.5bn.
The largest one-way turnover is expected in the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund, Technology Select Sector SPDR, Materials Select Sector SPDR and Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund.
The inflows to Apple (AAPL US), Palantir Technologies (PLTR US) and Dell Technologies (DELL US) will add to the buying from the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) trackers.


Select Sector Indices: Inflows to Apple, Palantir, Dell Will Add to SPX Buying

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Erie Indemnity Company Cl A / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dell-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32189:1" rel="noopener">Dell Technologies (DELL US)</a> is the main addition by transition candidate with a reduced probability due to no longer passing the S&amp;P 500 transition threshold.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/erie-indemnity-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4804:1" rel="noopener">Erie Indemnity (ERIE US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lennox-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16420:1" rel="noopener">Lennox International (LII US)</a> are the main addition by migration candidates with an increased probability due to weak transition candidates.</li>
<li>Addition by migration candidates have more inconsistent selection patterns. Other addition candidates include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/texas-pacific-land-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28693:1" rel="noopener">Texas Pacific Land (TPL US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carlisle-cos-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7929:1" rel="noopener">Carlisle Cos (CSL US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dick-s-sporting-goods-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1675:1" rel="noopener">Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS US)</a> .</li>
</ul>



Dell Technologies (DELL US) is the main addition by transition candidate with a reduced probability due to no longer passing the S&amp;P 500 transition threshold.

Erie Indemnity (ERIE US) and Lennox International (LII US) are the main addition by migration candidates with an increased probability due to weak transition candidates.
Addition by migration candidates have more inconsistent selection patterns. Other addition candidates include Texas Pacific Land (TPL US), Carlisle Cos (CSL US) and Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS US) .


S&P 500 September 2024 Forecasts: Dull for DELL. Brighter for ERIE, LII and TPL

United States

Etsy, Inc. provides e-commerce services. The Company offers handmade and vintage items, art, and supplies, as well as regular items such as clothing, housewares, paper goods, candles, bags and purses, music, and wood working items. Etsy serves users throughout the United States.

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Etsy Inc (ETSY US)

Briefing. Why AI Could Mean the End of the Marketplace Model, Meta's Paranoid "Vibe", Coupang's D...

The US Government shutdown delays September jobs report, but markets climb with limited economic consequences, as investors focus on interest...

The Synopsis

Etsy Inc.: Leveraging Technology for Enhanced Discovery and Personalization! - Major Drivers

Etsy, the global marketplace for unique and creative goods, reported mixed results in its third-quarter 2024 financials, showcasing resolute...

Baptista Research

S&P 500/400/600 Changes - DELL, PLTR, and ERIE Added, AAL, ETSY, BIO Deleted

The S and P Index Committee announced its September changes to the major indices on Friday along with changes to the Sector indices which means...

Travis Lundy

Select Sector Indices: Inflows to Apple, Palantir, Dell Will Add to SPX Buying

Constituent changes to the SPX and the market consultation proposals being adopted result in a round-trip trade of US$31.5bn. Apple and...

Brian Freitas

S&P 500 September 2024 Forecasts: Dull for DELL. Brighter for ERIE, LII and TPL

ERIE, DELL and PLTR were the announced additions and the top migration and transition candidates. To improve convictions, transitions and...

Dimitris Ioannidis

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